In a finals race like no other seen this century, the number of premiership contenders beyond Sydney has changed week-by-week for most of this season.
Carlton looked the best of the rest by some margin up until two weeks, with their last fortnight widening the cracks within their defence more than ever in 2024.
And at this rate, they will have to defy all history if they are to win a record 17th VFL/AFL premiership this year.
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Honest Voss reflects on surprise loss | 11:03
Speaking on Sunday night during Fox Footy’s First Crack, St Kilda great Leigh Montagna dived deep into the alarming trend at Ikon Park that has allowed opposition sides to pile on the goals against them – especially in the last fortnight.
“I think this year is a golden opportunity for Carlton to win a premiership,” Montagna prefaced by saying.
“They have so much in their favour – they’re still in the box seat to finish top two, they’ve got Patty Cripps playing the footy of his life, they’ve got Walsh riding shotgun, McKay and Curnow fit and firing, and their defenders all fit pretty much.”
“But, if they don’t stiffen up defensively and don’t tighten up, then they are going to squander a golden opportunity and waste the talent they’ve got right now and they opportunity that they’ve given themselves.”
Sitting pretty with an 11-4 win-loss record heading into Round 17, the Blues sat six points clear in second place and were primed for an all-important top two finish well before the end of the home-and-away season.
But with high-scoring losses to GWS and Western Bulldogs in the following fortnight, they are now incredibly just one game and percentage away from falling outside the top eight completely.
Only two points separates Michael Voss’ side from the sixth-placed Essendon, with a plethora of teams on their tail for not just a double chance, but a double chance with the benefits of two guaranteed home finals.
“This is the second week in a row they’ve conceded 100 points – (they) conceded 30 shots against the Western Bulldogs; (and) it’s now the fifth time this year they’ve conceded 100 points,” Montagna continued.
“They are 15th in the competition for points against; that is bottom four – there’s only been a couple of teams in 25 years actually make the eight sitting bottom four for points against.
“We’re talking about a team wanting to win a premiership; no team ever in the last 25 years has won a premiership outside the top six for points against, so if they don’t fix this part of their game up or get it consistent, they’re going to waste this opportunity.
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“It’s more probably about the individuals defensively than the collective system, because as a team defence they actually work really well, which is uncharacteristic.
“We’ve seen weeks where Weitering’s defended so well, Saad, Newman and McGovern and Kemp – then we’ve seen other weeks where they just get beaten way too often, they make poor decisions to come forward when they should stay back.”
On Saturday against the Bulldogs, Weitering took a whopping eight intercept marks – having taken three in each of his last four weeks before the weekend.
And while his season hasn’t been perfect, he has certainly led the Blues defence by way of consistency.
Their points scored for has been second only to the ladder-leading Swans, but to have conceded considerably more points than the likes of Adelaide, Hawthorn or St Kilda, there’s clearly a lot of room for improvement.
“They’ve now got six weeks to lock down and focus on this part of the game, and get it right so they can go through the finals series and win a premiership,” Montagna added.
“Right now, they’ve conceded more points from clearances than they (have) from turnovers – no team in the history of footy has done that by the end of the home-and-away season.
“When they get beaten, they are getting towelled up out of there (stoppage) – so it’s partly the mids, and it’s partly the defence, but together they’ve got to get it right.
“They’ve still got a great run home, still think they’ll finish top two, but this is a massive factor for them.”
Carlton will be at low odds to snap their two-game losing streak with a win over the 17th place North Melbourne on Sunday evening at Marvel Stadium.
CARLTON’S REMAINING FIXTURE
ROUND 19 – NORTH MELBOURNE @ MARVEL
ROUND 20 – PORT ADELAIDE @ MARVEL
ROUND 21 – COLLINGWOOD @ MCG
ROUND 22 – HAWTHORN @ MCG
ROUND 23 – WEST COAST @ OPTUS STADIUM
ROUND 24 – ST KILDA @ MARVEL STADIUM