Winter racing is officially here, with Caulfield hosting a nine-race card on Saturday, June 1.
The track is likely to be rain-affected following showers on Thursday, while the rail will be out 9m for the entire circuit.
I’ve worked to a Soft 5/6 but keep an eye on the weather and track updates closer to raceday.
You could probably sit out the opener from a punting perspective. All seven runners have claims, including the debutants. For the sake of a tip, Blue Renegade (1) goes on top. It’s too hard though.
VERDICT: Hard pass.
My Xanadu (5) stepped up sharply in grade and distance last start and wasn’t disgraced at only her second career run. She’ll be better for that experience and fitter third-up.
Subrising (2) won well over this trip last start but the runner-up All So Clear didn’t exactly frank the form at Sale on Wednesday.
Stylish (3) was really poor last start and vetted clear but her form prior reads well for this. Perhaps returning to Victoria will see her bounce back, or she might have had enough for the prep? Betting might tell the story with her.
Knucklebones (1) didn’t fire a shot in a stronger race over this route last start. She started $8 there so it could pay to forgive.
VERDICT: My Xanadu (5) on top but there are genuine queries on every runner here.
Episodic (2) was seriously impressive winning in Adelaide last start and a BM70 certainly looks within her scope. She ran well over a mile last campaign so the rise to 1400m fourth-up shouldn’t trouble her at all. The main query is barrier one but hopefully Lane can avoid having her three or four-back on the fence.
Princess Rayaa (6) has been racing well without winning, taking her record to 11:1-5-2 with another minor placing last start. This is no harder than recent assignments and she’s drawn well for Ethan Brown.
Arqana (11) worked home well in a BM78 over this route last start, finishing within 4L off Fancify who is a four-time winner from just nine outings. This is easier but the barrier means she’ll likely be spotting the leaders a start again.
Subliminal (1) is racing well and Kennedy’s confidence is also high at the moment.
VERDICT: Episodic (2) for the win.
Tassie visitor Alvarinho (2) has been Group-placed at her last couple, finishing 0.5L off Yellow Sam at G3 level over this distance two-back. She’s a two-time winner when fresh and has drawn ideally.
Consistent mare Jewellery (9) has been good in two runs back from a lengthy spell. The horse who nosed her out two-back in Spring Lee looks to have decent ability.
This is harder for Heart Of Glass (10) but she’s won 3 from 4 and started $8 in a Group 3 in the one miss.
Kiwi I Choose You (8) has certainly done enough in two Australian runs this prep to suggest he can be competitive in a race like this, but the barrier is awful.
VERDICT: Small play on Alvarinho (2).
Is It Me (3) was horrible in the Wangoom last start but that track brought plenty of runners undone and his previous form entitles him to another chance. He’s 1 from 1 over this route and has drawn well for Childs.
Legio Ten (4) got a mile back at Scone last start but closed off okay without threat. He should land closer in this from barrier three and his second-up record (4:2-1-0) is hard to knock.
Bews (15) has claims but the wide gate might leave him with too much to do.
Prancing Spirit (12) should have won a stronger race than this here two-back when hopelessly held-up. Not a heap went right for him here last start too, so he’s due a change of luck.
VERDICT: Giving Is It Me (3) another chance in a very open race.
Ashford Street (1) had his first start for Tom Dabernig last start and got the job done at double-figure odds. It’s hard to see him regressing here given his record over this distance (12:5-0-1) and the fact that the track should be to his liking (bit of the sting out). He drops to 56kg and should run well again at an each-way quote.
Keep Reading (6) has won 2 of his last 4 and was beaten by G1 Oakleigh Plate winner Queman in the two misses. The Jolly visitor was dominant winning from up on the speed last start off a break and plummets in weight from 60kg to 54kg.
Twin Perfection (8) comes out of the same race won by Ashford Street and there was nothing wrong with his performance there off a short freshen. He was too strong for the handy Midtown Boss over this route three-back.
Curran (2) is always zooming home when the race is over and he’ll probably do the same in this from barrier one.
VERDICT: Ashford Street (1) makes each-way appeal at $11. BEST VALUE
St Lawrence (7) was beaten last start but it was a nice return to form after four unplaced efforts on the bounce. The horse who finished ahead of him in 2nd, Iknowastar (0.8L), has been absolutely airborne in NSW and this appears an easier race for St Lawrence, especially after coming up with barrier three.
Highlights (9) was terrific at Sandown Hillside last Saturday, coming from worse than midfield to run 2nd to Pudding who enjoyed an absolute picnic in front. Back to the mile shouldn’t trouble him based on his record (10:3-4-1).
JImmy The Bear (3) never runs a bad race and he’s pretty versatile in terms of his racing pattern. He’s 2 from 2 over the Caulfield mile.
Dashing (8) is mixing it up a bit this campaign but he has solid claims if he can repeat his winning performance here two-back when nosing out Here To Shock.
VERDICT: St Lawrence (7) for the win.
Batrana (14) flopped in Listed grade at Flemington prior to going for a break but I’m convinced she’ll win better races than this one. The barrier makes things tricky but it might just force Coffey’s hand to be aggressive out of the gates. She looked very good winning a recent 1000m jumpout under a tight hold.
Sioux Spirit (16) bumped into a handy one at Flemington last start but ran very well for 2nd after a savage drift. It’s hard to find fault in either of her two efforts to date.
Pivot City (2) has looked very good in his two wins to date but he hasn’t been able to find consistency yet. The little break between runs shouldn’t hurt.
Shesallshenanigans (1) will either lead or settle behind the leader from the inside gate. She’s racing well this preparation but just lacking a punch at the end of her races.
VERDICT: Batrana (14) to hopefully overcome the very wide gate.
Mirzann (15) gets his chance here third-up from a gun draw. He just gave the winner too much of a start over 1800m at Flemington last start but the extra 200m is a big positive and Lane will be keen to avoid being shuffled back. Punters who did their dough on him last time at $2.90 will hopefully get it back today.
Amberite (14) beat Mirzann by 1.5L last start, so of course he has to be respected in this. The rise in trip suits but a 1kg swing in favour of Mirzann and a better ride from Lane might see the tables turned.
Trosettee (12) is on the quick back-up after closing strongly behind his stablemate Hard To Cross at Sandown Hillside last Saturday. That run should bring him on nicely for this longer assignment third-up.
Taramansour (2) was only 1.1L off Fawkner Park over this trip at Wagga two-back. That is a handy reference for a race like this.
VERDICT: Mirzann (15) looks the one third-up. BEST BET