It all comes down to this with Game 1 of the NBA Finals tipping off with the Celtics and Mavericks fighting for a chance to win this year’s title.
The Celtics are aiming for their 18th championship — which would be the most in NBA history — if they’re able to take care of business against the Mavericks.
On the other side, Dallas will look to achieve its second NBA title since 2011, when the franchise defeated the ‘Big 3’ of the Miami Heat that featured LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh.
So who take the series opener? Here’s our betting breakdown on the spread, total and moneyline for Game 1 between the Celtics and Mavericks tonight with odds via sportsbooks in New Jersey:
Celtics vs. Mavericks spread: Celtics -6.5 (-106), Mavericks +6.5 (-110)
Looking at both teams track records so far this postseason, Boston’s clearly been better at getting out of the gate to begin a series.
The Celtics are 3-0 in Game 1s this postseason, winning by 20+ points versus the Heat and Cavaliers, then needing overtime to beat the Pacers 133-128 in the conference semifinals.
On the flip side, the Mavericks are the complete opposite. Besides beating the Timberwolves 108-105 in Game 1 of the third round, Dallas dropped each of its prior Game 1s, losing by double digits in both affairs in the process (12-point loss at Clippers and 22-point defeat at Thunder).
While these trends seemingly point directly to Boston having a dominant Game 1, bet the opposite happens here.
Both these organizations have played in tightly contested games throughout the playoffs.
The Celtics had three of four games versus the Pacers be decided by five points or less and the Mavericks had three of their five game series against the Timberwolves come down to an outcome of five or fewer points.
Furthermore, Dallas is 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in its previous 10 games and Boston has failed to cover in five of its last six contests, including three of those coming on its home court.
I believe we’re in for a close game to start this series off and would wager on the Mavericks to cover the spread.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the best available price for Mavericks +6.5 at -110 (Bet $110 to win $100).
Prediction: Mavericks +6.5 (-110)
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Celtics vs. Mavericks total: Over 214.5 points (-109), Under 214.5 points (-105)
Through three rounds of the postseason, the Mavericks and Celtics have been dominant on both ends of the floor. Each organization ranks top-six in points per game (PPG) and opponents points per game (OPPG).
Even with recent trends of the totals going under or below the projected line in the playoffs, the side to wager on here is the over.
When it comes down to the Celtics, you have to look at the differences in their opponents.
In the first two rounds, they faced inferior offenses in the Heat and Cavaliers, both of whom are bottom-three this postseason in PPG.
Then they had a completely different opponent in the conference finals, facing a Pacers’ squad that leads the playoffs in PPG (113.9)
A similar comparison can be made about who the Mavericks’ have faced, with two low-scoring opponents in the Clippers and Thunder, before taking on a Timberwolves team that ranks middle of the pack (107.5 PPG).
When these two teams faced off in the regular season, they combined to score 229 or points in both games, including a 248-point outburst on Mar. 1 at TD Garden.
While I don’t think we’ll see that in Game 1, all there needs to be is at least 215 points here and I’m betting on these two franchises to have higher scoring contests earlier on in these matchups and the totals going lower as the series progresses.
BetRivers has the best odds for over 214.5 points with a current price of -109 (Bet $109 to win $100).
Prediction: Over 214.5 points (-109)
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Celtics vs. Mavericks moneyline: Celtics -230 (Bet $230 to win $100), Mavericks +205 (Bet $100 to win $205)
In most series, there’s a feeling out process between two teams before the gameplay gets tighter and tighter when getting closer to crowning a champion.
Whether it’s the Mavericks or Celtics, don’t be shocked if one team jumps out to a large lead before the other jumps back in and makes it a close contest.
There’s no doubt that these two franchises will easily be playing their toughest opponent to date.
Nobody would be surprised if the Mavericks do pull off the upset here as a near 2/1 underdog if the sensational backcourt of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic can continue to play at their highest level on the biggest stage.
With that being said, I believe Dallas comes up just short, with the combo of the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown plus the depth of Boston’s bench will be too much to overcome on the road in Game 1.
To get the best price of Celtics’ moneyline, go to DraftKings Sportsbook where they’re currently -230 (Bet $230 to win $100) to take a 1-0 series lead in the NBA Finals.