Officials, diplomats and police in Canberra are furiously preparing for Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who will fly into Australia later today at a crucial time for Beijing and for the Australian government.
China wants to strengthen economic ties between the two nations, while the federal government is hoping Beijing will soon remove the last few remaining trade sanctions it has placed on Australian goods.
With China’s domestic economy facing challenges, maintaining the trade bans could jeopardise Beijing’s aspirations to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade pact, making a resolution with Australia even more pressing.
One potential game changer is expected to be announced: a 15-day visa-free entry for all Australian citizens to China.
Australia’s potential inclusion in China’s visa-free program marks a significant gesture, following similar arrangements offered to 12 other countries including France, Germany, and New Zealand.
The policy is aimed at boosting China’s tourism sector, which has recorded a significantly low number of foreign visitors this year.
The number of visitors reached just 30 per cent of 2019 figures.
By making it easier for Australians, especially those with Chinese heritage, to travel to China, Beijing hopes to inject much-needed revenue into its economy — aligning with China’s broader strategy to recover from its economic downturn since the pandemic.
Panda diplomacy
Another highly anticipated highlight of Mr Li’s visit is a possible announcement regarding the pandas at Adelaide Zoo.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s declaration of being “pro-panda” during his visit to China last November has set the stage for this.
The current panda couple, Wang Wang and Fu Ni, who are on loan from China, have not successfully bred, and may now be replaced with a more fertile pair — a symbol of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s willingness to maintain his political engagement with Mr Albanese.
China has pursued what is known as panda diplomacy since the 1970s.
Known as symbols of diplomatic goodwill, the animals have been used by Beijing to foster friendly ties with other countries.
They are a symbol of the delicate and strategic dance between nations.
Serving as a soft-power tool, China’s pandas provide balance to Beijing’s often aggressive foreign policy.
Energy necessities
Mr Li’s visit also underscores China’s strategic interest in new energy partnerships, particularly in the lithium sector.
During his visit to a lithium mine in Perth, Mr Li is expected to emphasise the need for a consistent supply of natural resources, including iron ore, from Australia.
Chinese electric cars are gaining popularity worldwide, and securing a stable supply of lithium is crucial for maintaining China’s competitive edge.
Nearly 99 per cent of Australia’s lithium exports go to China, highlighting the importance of Western Australia’s mines in this equation.
Meanwhile, Australia faces a delicate balancing act between acquiring critical minerals and making a green transition. In some instances the federal government has blocked Chinese investments in the strategically crucial sector as the West tries to break free of Beijing’s stranglehold on the supply chain.
China’s strategic manoeuvring
China’s desire to join the CPTPP is another critical issue on the agenda.
It is particularly significant given interest in the agreement from Taiwan, which China views as a province.
The timing of Mr Li’s visit follows the inauguration of Taiwan’s pro-independence president, Lai Ching-te.
China is leveraging this visit to reaffirm its stance on the One-China policy, while also extending olive branches to regional countries to secure their support.
If Beijing wants to join the trade pact then it will need to get a green light from all CPTPP members — including Australia.
Canberra has not publicly ruled out lending its support but is reticent given its recent bruising encounter with Beijing’s economic coercion — not the sort of behaviour consistent with the high standards which are meant to be embraced by all CPTPP members.
Still, China seems determined to press for entry to the agreement.
Over the past six months, it has initiated comprehensive consultations with every single member countries and even started trial practices for the CPTPP agreement in Shanghai’s free trade zone.
Beijing is trying to demonstrate it is willing to reduce traditional trade barriers and improve market entry and tariffs, hoping it can convince CPTPP members of its commitment to the pact and its principles.
And despite ongoing trade tensions, Chinese diplomats have been actively engaging with Australian exporters, particularly in the lobster industry.
Analysts believe Beijing is prepared to fully restore trade relations with Australia, potentially giving Australian lobsters the green light to return to the Chinese market just after Mr Li’s meeting with Mr Albanese.
Every aspect of this visit seems carefully designed to signal that the process of stabilisation between China and Australia is now largely complete.
The more difficult question is, what follows after that?
There are still a host of profound disagreements between Canberra and Beijing, ranging from recent military confrontations between the two countries to the (likely suspended) death sentence handed to Australian citizen Yang Hengjun, and a host of other issues.
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