Former home affairs secretary Michael Pezzullo has warned China’s aggressive cyber activities are “close to an act of war,” as fears over a potential conflict with Beijing continue to rise.
United States intelligence services have grown increasingly vocal about Chinese attempts to compromise the key digital systems of America and its allies, warning Beijing may have taken steps to pre-emptively strike critical infrastructure ahead of a potential invasion of Taiwan.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has set 2027 as the date he expects the island to be retaken by Beijing, something he describes as an “inevitability,” but which could spark a major conflict and would draw in the US and allies including Australia.
Speaking to Sky News Australia on Sunday, Mr Pezzullo maintained there was a roughly “ten per cent chance” of such an outcome, citing CIA Director William Burns public comments about the risk posed by increasing Chinese aggression in the region.
“That’s a large enough number to be apprehensive, it’s a large enough number to be worried about, but it doesn’t mean war is inevitable,” he said.
Despite this, the former home affairs secretary maintained it was essential that Australia should become involved if a conflict did occur, arguing the nation had a “deep interest” in ensuring Taiwan was able to remain self-governing.
However, committing to Taiwan’s defence would create risks for the country, Mr Pezzullo suggested, with our close ties to the US making it more likely for Beijing to attempt to compromise Australia’s security ahead of any potential invasion.
That includes heightened threat of a major cyberattack on Australian assets which would not only create significant challenges for the country’s armed forces, but could also cause real pain for households and businesses.
“It is deeply concerning… Critical infrastructure networks that would be attacked on the eve of, or on the morning of a war to disable support to military facilities,” he explained.
“Things like power systems, water systems, gas systems, which would then hurt the civilian population.
“Frankly, if that is happening, and (NSA) Director Haugh says that is happening, that is the equivalent of the dynamite already being placed on bridges to blow them up in the event of war.
“That is getting close to an act of war.”
Concerns over Chinese cyber operations have been most visible through the ongoing debate over TikTok, which has been accused of illegally accessing the data of Australian and US citizens.
However, experts have also voiced concerns over other companies, including telcom giant Huawei, as potentially enabling China ways of infiltrating key systems to cause damage.
Despite the heightened risk, though, Australia is not understood to be at immediate threat of a major cyberattack from Beijing, although the Australian Signals Directorate continues to work extensively to ensure the country remains protected.
The agency, which Mr Pezzullo labelled the “crown jewel” of Australia’s intelligence community, warned in its annual threat assessment last year that the AUKUS agreement had seen an uptick in efforts to breach cyber defences, but that efforts to thwart China and other state actors had been largely successful.