Melissa Clarke: The Federal Opposition’s dismissal of Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction target and its plan to pursue nuclear power has fired up political debate at the highest levels. It’s also brought attention back to the Teals, who are the independents who won seats at the last election with their focus on climate change, as well as integrity and gender equality. With climate set to once again be a major issue at the next election, the Teals’ fundraising vehicle Climate 200 has more electorates in its sights. Professor Mark Kenny is the Director of the Australian Studies Centre at the Australian National University and he joined me earlier. Mark Kenny, let’s start with the major parties. Both the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader have readily launched into battle over climate policy. Presumably both sides think this is an issue that can work in their favour. Are they both right?
Prof Mark Kenny: Well, that’s the thing, isn’t it? I don’t think they can both be right, but you’re right that they do both think they are on a winner at the moment in this. The Government thinks it’s got a strong story to tell on climate change. It’s an issue that’s been around for a long time, about which there is very widespread community acceptance. People are very conscious of climate change as an issue. But then on the Opposition side, they are well aware, Peter Dutton particularly is well aware, that when cost of living issues come in, then climate change, mitigation, emissions reductions, and these kinds of things tend to start tumbling down the hierarchy of importance in terms of issues for Australian voters. We saw that happen in 2013 and it was very beneficial for Tony Abbott. And that’s what Peter Dutton is banking on now. We see that climate change, yeah, people believe in it, but do they want it addressed right now when they’re having trouble registering the car or filling the tank or meeting other household costs? And that’s the big dichotomy in Australian politics right now.
Melissa Clarke: At the last election, climate change was very much a high order issue and it helped propel the Teal Independents into Parliament. Does a renewed fight between Labor and the Coalition potentially see more support flow their way again come the next election? Or does the fact it might not be the number one issue on people’s mind make the job for Teals and potential new Teals even harder?
Prof Mark Kenny: It’s a two way street this one, I think, for the Teals. On the one hand, they will probably be happy that Peter Dutton has so clearly enunciated his disregard for climate change as an issue, his walking away from the 43% 2030 target, for example. For example, the Teals will be looking at that and saying, that makes a fairly clear choice for voters and they can campaign on that and they’ve done well on it in the past. So that’s on one side. But on the other side, of course, if the issue is tumbling down the hierarchy of preoccupations for voters, then it may not be the vote changer that it was in 2022. This is, in a sense, one of the big unknowns of this coming election. And we know what Peter Dutton’s banking on and we know what Labor and the Teals and the Greens are banking on. The election is going to be a test of who’s right.
Melissa Clarke: It’s interesting that we seem to have the fundraising vehicle for the Teal independence Climate 200 looking at different seats this time around, more coastal seats on the periphery of cities, seats like Macpherson and Moncrieff on the Gold Coast and Fairfax and Fisher on the Sunshine Coast. That seems to be where they want to look to target for the next polling date. Do you think they’ll be able to garner support in those areas compared to, say, the inner city seats of Melbourne and Sydney that they were successful in last time?
Prof Mark Kenny: It’s going to be tough for them. It’s worth doing. I think it’s quite interesting that they’re not targeting, for the most part, marginal seats and that is probably wise. They’re targeting, for the most part, reasonably safe coalition seats because it’s all with our preferential voting system. It’s all about who finishes second if you are looking to unseat someone from a relatively safe seat. I think in a lot of those seats there is a fairly widespread acceptance of climate change, particularly in those coastal seats where people are very aware of it or in those areas where there have been big climate-related crises over recent years. There is ground to be made up there but, as I say, it’s going to be really a test of whether they can motivate enough people to break away from the conservatives and harvest the votes of Labor and others and get up over the line that way. But, yes, quite an interesting development.
Melissa Clarke: Professor Mark Kenny, thanks very much.
Prof Mark Kenny: It’s a pleasure.
Melissa Clarke: And Professor Mark Kenny is the Director of the Australian Studies Centre at the Australian National University.