Clubs to be hurt by AFL’s ‘shock’ draft change; ‘scary’ Swans in 19-year flag first — Talking Points

The AFL has flagged a major draft change sooner than clubs were expecting, which could hurt some in particular.

Plus the Bont matches MJ, Sydney’s lead at the top reaches historic levels and concerns over a Power favourite.

The big issues from Round 14 of the 2024 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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DRAFT CHANGE THAT WOULD ‘SHOCK’ CLUBS

The AFL National Draft is just 157 days away, and the league has signalled there could yet be an overhaul of this year’s draft system.

AFL football operations boss Laura Kane confirmed this weekend the league was expected to make its calls on the father-son and academy points bidding system in the next couple of months as part of the competitive balance review, which “might” come into effect for this year’s draft.

And, to be clear, changes are needed. Frustrations reached fever pitch last year when Gold Coast nabbed four Academy players in the first round – Jed Walter (pick 3), Ethan Read (9), Jake Rogers (14) and Will Graham (26).

They did so by matching bids on their players using lower draft picks, following the AFL’s Draft Value Index; for example they paid just picks 34 and 38 for Read at No.9, a ridiculously low price for a top-10 pick. (Just imagine if a team tried to trade into the top 10 using those picks – they’d be laughed out the door.)

A change to the system could see teams not being able to match bids inside the top 40, as we see with Next Generation Academy players, or (more likely) tweaking the pick you need to use to match – for example you have to bid using a first-round pick to get a first-round player.

While this potential change has been on the cards for some time, clubs have reportedly anticipated any alterations would come in for 2025, not 2024, since they’ve already made their decisions about trading future picks with the current system in mind.

Roos legend David King labelled it “bewildering” given how close the potential changes would be to this year’s draft, and moving forward, considering how little time it’d give clubs to prepare for the future.

So which sides are likely to be impacted?

For example, Carlton has the Camporeale twins — Ben and Lucas — Adelaide has Tyler Welsh and Brisbane has Levi Ashcroft as father-son prospects in this year’s draft.

Meanwhile 2024 academy-linked prospects include Sam Marshall and Ryan Gilder (Brisbane), Leo Lombard (Gold Coast) and Logan Smith (GWS).

There are also several academy prospects next year including Brisbane’s Daniel Annable, Gold Coast’s Zeke Uwland and Sydney’s Lachlan Carmichael and Noah Chamberlain.

These players will likely still be linked to their clubs, but the teams will have to pay much closer to fair value for the prospects – which especially matters for likely top-10 picks Ben Camporeale and Levi Ashcroft, when the Blues and Lions may be picking late in the first round.

“It affects everything. The clubs you speak to, they know change is coming and they are basically accepting of that change,” Edmund said on SEN.

“What they’re not accepting of though is it coming in this year. Just about every club you speak to says, ‘that will be next year, it can’t be now’.

“So to hear that it’s maybe two or three months away from being confirmed, that puts it right up on the doorstep of the national draft. There’s kids in academies, there’s father sons coming through, there’s bids, there’s points, it’s a big body of work to be dumped on your desk right before the draft.

“I think it would shock a number of clubs.”

The change wouldn’t just impact clubs bidding for players, but teams trying to take advantage of those clubs – like Richmond, who own three third-round picks in the upcoming draft.

As it stands those selections would fall in the late 30s and early 40s, which would either be super-valuable for bidding teams (because those picks are the perfect mixture of valuable on the points index, but not too valuable for actually taking players), or valuable for the Tigers as other picks get vacuumed up in bids and they move up the order.

Despite the jarring nature of the sudden change, Kane noted clubs “have been on notice” and that discussions have been taking place for the last 12 months.

The football operations boss also said the prospect of a mid-season trade period was becoming less likely amid little support from clubs.

“We didn’t get that much support from that to be honest,” she added.

“I think there was interest in trading of picks, but not as much trading of players.

“It seems to be the sentiment at the moment, particularly if other things — like DVI (Draft Value Index) or the access to academy or father sons — was to change or become fairer in the clubs eyes.”

BONT’S FLU GAME CONFIRMS STATUS AS AFL’S BEST

It will be an absolute shame if Marcus Bontempelli ends his stellar career without a Brownlow Medal, because the Western Bulldogs superstar is the best player in the AFL – and has some been for some time.

The 29-year-old is No.1 in the league in Champion Data’s Player Ratings. He was No.1 in 2023, too. And No.2 in 2022 (just 0.02 points off first).

And he’s been a top-10 player for almost a decade now, ranking fourth in 2021, seventh in 2020, eighth in 2019 and 10th in 2018. Oh, and he should have won the Norm Smith in 2016.

But to become a Hall of Famer, you also need iconic moments, and iconic games; for example most people would have Dusty ahead of Bont in a ranking of players over the last decade because of the Richmond great’s Grand Final heroics.

Bont doesn’t quite have that. But now, like Michael Jordan, he has his flu game.

Let’s be clear on two things – a Round 14 game against Fremantle is not as important as game five of the NBA Finals. And Jordan has since revealed he didn’t actually have the flu that night against Utah, but food poisoning. (The Food Poisoning Game isn’t as catchy.)

But the similarity is obvious. A superstar player, struck down by illness and barely able to prepare, went out and starred anyway – Jordan having 38 points in a two-point win over the Jazz, and Bont having 30 disposals and three goals.

This from a bloke who couldn’t train all week because he caught the pretty bad version of the flu which is going around Melbourne at the moment.

Perhaps the problem was Fremantle being germophobic, because unlike Brisbane who found reasonable success tagging Bontempelli, they let the Dogs gun run free.

“They must have skipped the coach planning meeting for this game,” Kane Cornes said on Nine’s Sunday Footy Show.

“You think, alright, Brisbane go after Marcus Bontempelli last week. He’d be the first player you circle with red ink before you play the Bulldogs. So who’s gonna tag him? The answer is no-one.

“I’m not calling for hard tags every week but there’s some teams you play against, and this is one of them … you’ve got to question the coaching tactics.”

Cornes suggested defender-turned-midfielder Hayden Young would’ve been best-suited and, to be fair, Young did spend bits of the game on Bontempelli – but it’s hard to stop the best player in the game.

Sitting on the fringe of the eight, the Bulldogs’ season remains in the balance. It’s safe to say Bontempelli will have a major impact on whether they emerge from the pack as a true challenger to Sydney.

Perhaps, just like in 2016, he’ll bring them to the promised land against the Swans. And this time he could get the Norm Smith he deserves.

SWANS THE MOST DOMINANT TEAM IN DECADES… BUT CAN BE CAUGHT

The race for the finals looms as a thriller, as with 10 rounds remaining, there are just two wins separating 12th-placed Hawthorn from the top two.

And then, of course, there’s the gap to Sydney.

The Swans’ lead over second is, remarkably, bigger than second’s lead over 14th-placed St Kilda – a whopping three wins and a heaping helping of percentage.

For the second straight week they found themselves well down, with the Crows up by four goals late in the first half, and then holding a similar lead midway through the third, before the Swans turned on the afterburners.

Effectively John Longmire’s men have a four-win advantage over every other team, with 10 games left. A team like Carlton would need to finish on a 10-0 run to have any hope of catching them, and even that would require the Swans to finish 6-4.

“They’re just a scary team, Sydney. They really are,” Hawthorn legend Jason Dunstall said on Fox Footy post-game.

“We were watching this game, halfway through the third, there’s 12 minutes or so left, they (Adelaide) were four goals in front! And then all of a sudden they’re 100 down!

“I don’t understand, Sydney just get this surge and they completely dominate. Imagine what it’s doing for the confidence of the Swans players, so any game where they trail, they know they’re gonna come hard because they know what the back-end of their games is like.”

North Melbourne dual premiership player David King added: “Power wins premierships.

“When they play like that, they just know, that at any time – whether they’re a goal down, three down, five goal, they can drop the hammer and go bang. Warner, Gulden, Heeney, the ruckman in Grundy … the game needs them, they say righto, my turn and they step up time after time.

“They did it against Geelong, kicked five goals in 10 minutes, and then six in 12 minutes tonight. Awesome to watch.”

It leaves the Swans perfectly poised to claim their first minor premiership since 2016; or so it would seem.

We’ve gone back through AFL history, and since the competition went national, only one team has ever had a bigger lead on top of the ladder after Round 14 – West Coast (2005), with a remarkable four-win (plus percentage) edge over the chasing pack.

Funnily enough, just like the Swans with their sole loss to lowly Richmond, those Eagles also had just one loss to an unlikely opponent – a bottom-four Collingwood side.

But things get even weirder… because those Eagles didn’t win the minor premiership. They were caught by the then-second-placed Crows, who won 10 straight games to end the season and caught West Coast by beating them in the final round.

And keep in mind there were only 22 rounds back then, not the 25 we now have (if you include Opening Round). So West Coast had a bigger lead than Sydney, and less time to be caught, but still missed the minor premiership.

The 2005 Eagles still made the Grand Final but fell victim to, ironically, Leo Barry’s Swans.

Other teams with the type of lead Sydney holds have found success. Essendon dominated in 2000, sitting three games and percentage clear after Round 14, and dropping just one game against the flooding Bulldogs on route to the flag.

The 1991 Eagles technically had a three-game-and-percentage lead, though partially because of byes, and just like the team 14 years later lost the Grand Final.

The only other truly modern comparison is the Geelong side of 2007, who were two wins and percentage clear of the chasing pack after Round 14, on route to a Grand Final demolition of Port Adelaide. Their end-of-season gap on the ladder was basically identical to Sydney’s lead now – three wins with a percentage around 150, with no other team even hitting 120%.

The weirdest part of that season though? The Power were actually ninth after Round 14, with an 8-6 record and a percentage under 100 – way, way behind the Cats (a gap that was exposed on Grand Final day).

Perhaps you could argue the Grand Final race is wide open… but it’s just a race for one spot, to see who gets smashed by Sydney.

Biggest ladder lead after Round 14 in the AFL era

West Coast (2005) – Four wins and percentage

Sydney (2024) – Three wins and percentage

Essendon (2000) – Three wins and percentage

West Coast (1991) – Three wins and percentage*

Essendon (2001) – Two wins and percentage

Geelong (2007) – Two wins and percentage

Fremantle (2015) – Two wins

Geelong (2011) – Two wins*

* = had played an extra game over second

COULD SUSPENSION FAST-TRACK THE END FOR A PORT ADELAIDE VETERAN?

In another blow for dropped Port Adelaide forward Charlie Dixon, the key forward is looking at multiple weeks on the sidelines through suspension after a grim hit on a West Adelaide player in the SANFL.

As reported by Fox Footy’s David Zita on Saturday night, Dixon’s decision to bump 19-year-old Blood Jordan White could leave him paying dearly if recent precedents are anything to go by.

“Someone who isn’t currently playing in the top tier is Charlie Dixon – he may potentially find himself in some strife for an incident that left West Adelaide’s Jordan White concussed,” Zita said.

“We saw how a split-second decision led to Luke Parker receiving a significant ban at the VFL tribunal, we wait to see if it’s the same for Dixon.”

Dixon kicked two goals yesterday in Port Adelaide Magpies’ 20-point win over West Adelaide from nine disposals and three clearances.

Once Zita threw to the Saturday night Fox Footy panel, discussion on Dixon’s discretion evolved into a broader conversation discussing his playing future at the top level.

Host Sarah Jones threw to experts Jason Dunstall, Leigh Montagna and David King as to whether or not the incident may now harm his chances of returning to Port’s AFL side for good.

“It is (hard to return now), because his form hasn’t demanded that he play – that’s for sure,” Dunstall opened by saying.

“They like what he can bring and the potential that he has as a second ruck, and also competing as that key forward.

“It’s going to be tough for him; it would be a shame if his career fizzles as a result of something like this – but he had the option of tackling then… probably think he’s going to cop a stint (on the sidelines) here.”

From his 10 games in the senior side this year, Dixon has kicked 13 goals with an average of just over 10 touches per game – his lowest average output on the scoreboard since 2018.

Additionally, excluding COVID where the AFL played with shortened quarters, the 33-year-old hasn’t averaged less disposals per game since 2015 in his last year at the Gold Coast Suns.

Montagna was still open to giving the 200cm key forward and 2020 All-Australian further opportunity after his (likely) inevitable suspension, citing his best as still something coach Ken Hinkley can rely on in the big moments.

“I think he still does have a role if he is healthy and fit – in a final I would still maybe want to go to the well with Charlie Dixon, if I feel as a coaching group he is fit, healthy and playing somewhere near his best,” Montagna explained.

“How many (games) leading in do you need to see? We haven’t seen Charlie in form, we’re picking him on faith,” King questioned.

“He always looks patched up when you do see him, you feel like he’s hanging by a thread with tape keeping him together,” Dunstall added.

Dixon has missed Round 6 and 11 through management this year; perhaps an indication that the ever-increasing pace of the game is slowly catching up with her.

Winning the club’s leading goalkicker award in 2017, 2020 and 2021, he has so far been a key cog in Port’s push for an elusive flag – but with the likes of Todd Marshall, Mitch Georgiades and Ollie Lord now the preferred key forward trio, the road back in might be tougher than anticipated after a potential suspension.

“Ollie Lord can now command that position if he’s up to it – the timing is perfect for him to go bang and take the conversation off the table,” King finished by saying.