A new Roy Morgan poll has revealed the Coalition now has a “clear lead” on a two-party preferred basis for the first time in more than two years.
Polling released over the weekend shows Labor’s primary vote is continuing to slide.
The latest Redbridge poll shows Labor’s primary vote has dropped to 33 per cent, while the Coalition gained ground to top out at 38 per cent.
Two-party-preferred, Labor retains a narrow lead but is down two points on the last poll.
The polling from Redbridge mirrors the results of recent polls by Resolve, Roy Morgan, Freshwater and Newspoll.
The Australian’s National Editor Dennis Shanahan joined Sky News host Peta Credlin to discuss the latest polling trends.
The poll shows the Liberal-National Coalition is up at 51.5 per cent ahead of the Australian Labor Party at 48.5 per cent.
In its analysis, Roy Morgan noted the two per cent shift in popularity favouring the Coalition came after a week of student protests on university campuses in support of Palestine were broken up.
Additionally, the results reflect recent criticism against Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for his failure to “come out in support of Israel” after the International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan issued applications for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.
A new Roy Morgan poll released on Monday has revealed the Coalition now has a “clear lead” on a two-party preferred basis. Picture: iStock/kokkai
The results show if a Federal Election were to be held now, the Coalition would form a minority government with the support of minor parties and independents.
Alternatively, support for the Greens also increased by half a per cent to 15 per cent and support for One Nation also increased by the same amount, bringing Pauline Hanson’s party popularity to six per cent.
Support for Other Parties and Independents were also up by half a per cent, with total support rising marginally to 4.5 and 9 per cent respectively.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the primary support for the ALP dropped by two per cent to 28.5 per cent last week due to the campus protests, Foreign Minister Penny Wong consistently expressing support for a two-state solution to end the conflict in Gaza and the ICC’s quest to arrest Mr Netanyahu.
“However, the Coalition is not benefiting directly from this, its primary vote remained unchanged at 37 per cent,” Ms Levine said.
“More women than men swung against the Albanese Government and a look at the results in the different States shows the strongest swings against the ALP on a two-party preferred basis were in Queensland (-7.5 per cent) and Victoria (-6.5 per cent).
“In addition to the national issues, in Queensland the Steven Miles-led ALP Government is facing a State Election defeat this year while in Victoria the Jacinta Allan-led ALP Government has just handed down a State Budget with spending cuts and no sign of any cost-of-living relief for consumers.”
Former Labor Senator Graham Richardson says Albanese’s response to the recent International Criminal Court ruling will “dog us for a long time”.
This follows Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s refusal to comment on the ICC issuing warrants for the arrest of three Hamas leaders as well as the Israeli Prime Minister and Defence Minister.
“A lot of people are going to be fascinated about how the whole Netanyahu thing plays out,” Mr Richardson told Sky News Australia.
“All eyes will be upon Canberra tomorrow as the battle ensues.
“I think that is going to be an issue that will, I think, dog us for a long time.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey was based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,488 Australian electors from May 20 to May 26.
Earlier in the month, on May 6, Roy Morgan released a poll which saw the ALP leading the LNP at 52 per cent compared to the Coalition on 48 per cent.
A poll conducted for The Australian in February showed the primary vote for the ALP fell by one per cent to 33 per cent compared to a slightly taller Coalition at 36 per cent share.
In that poll, Mr Albanese maintained his lead over opposition leader Peter Dutton in the race for preferred Prime Minister, gaining a point since the last poll to sit at 47 per cent compared to Mr Dutton’s 35 per cent.
Research organisation Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the US and U.K.