Earlier on Thursday, EA Sports released the top offenses in College Football 25, and I wrote about how those rankings compared to my College Football Projection Model’s outputs. Now they’ve released the top defenses in the game for the upcoming season.
The blue bloods reign supreme on the defensive side of the ball as Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama all rank inside the top five, just as they did on offense.
If you’re unfamiliar with my work, I have developed a model to predict the strength of college football teams. This process ingests play-by-play level data and adjusts for opponent, home field advantage and garbage time to project how well an offense or defense will perform in the future against an average college football team. The model also takes into account returning production and recruiting metrics to project each team heading into the regular season. These projections are broken down by offense and defense which can be combined for an overall rating.
1. Alabama due for a drop post-Saban?
EA Sports doesn’t seem to think so. Alabama ranks as the fourth-best defense in the video game, but my model disagrees and has the Crimson Tide at 18th. Nick Saban was one of the best defensive minds in the history of the sport. Factor in the program’s switch to an offensive-minded head coach in Kalen DeBoer with a roster that ranks outside the top 100 in defensive returning production, and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a slight drop-off in defensive efficiency. Yes, Alabama is still incredibly talented, but expecting a top-five defense is a bit of a reach according to my projections.
2. The Big Ten is still the best defensive conference
Both my model and the developers at EA Sports believe points will need to be earned in the Big Ten this season, as both rankings have four of the top 10 defenses coming from the conference. Ohio State takes the top spot in both rankings and by a considerable margin, while Penn State and Michigan expect to be stout on the defensive side of the ball again. Iowa makes my model’s top 10; EA has the Hawkeyes ranked 13th. Surprisingly, Oregon comes in at No. 2 in EA Sports’ rankings but just 12th in my rankings.
GO DEEPER
Top 25 offenses in College Football 25: Where EA’s ratings differ from ours
3. LSU and USC to bounce back?
LSU has historically fielded great defenses. USC has to go back a few more years to find an era of consistency on the defensive side of the ball. Last year was a disaster for both defenses, finishing outside the top 100 in defensive EPA per play. LSU ranked 113th in defensive success rate and USC had a slight improvement to 93rd. Both teams made changes at defensive coordinator this offseason, so I do expect some improvement — the teams have too much talent for there not to be — but a preseason ranking in the top 20 seems like a bit of a stretch. My model pegs LSU at 26th and USC at 39th.
4. Colorado is overrated once again
I wrote in the breakdown of top-25 offenses that the Colorado offense looks to be overrated in the video game, and somehow the Buffaloes are even more overrated on defense. Yes, defensive back Travis Hunter is expected to be a first-round pick in next year’s NFL Draft, but I think there is an argument to be made that this unit will be closer to the bottom 25 in college football than the top. Colorado ranked 114th in EPA/play on defense and 123rd in defensive success rate. There is no way to justify this ranking. My model has them ranked 77th, and honestly, that feels a bit high.
(Screenshot courtesy of EA Sports)