It’s perhaps a triumph of tactics, or simply a triumph of circumstance: France have got to the semi-finals of Euro 2024 without scoring a goal in open play through any of their own 26 members of the squad.
Didier Deschamps’ side have been totally unconcerned by having possession for large stretches of matches. They haven’t really created too many chances either – certainly not in the way that the calibre of players at their disposal would suggest that they might do. They rank 11th in the tournament for average possession per game. They’ve created the same number of big chances at the Euros as Austria or Turkey. They’ve only scored three in total across five matches and two of them were own goals.
All of this is not to attack their plan, which has clearly worked to the extent they are one of the remaining four teams in the tournament, but instead to point to where Deschamps has chosen to place his faith: in organisation, in resilience, in cohesion. And, in the trust that when those moments come along for France’s attackers to score and send them through, they will do.
For semi-final opponents Spain, this presents both a problem and an opportunity. They are the most dominant team at the Euros in terms of expected goals, shots on target and chances created and are not far behind the top few in possession terms either – the latter stat skewed against them by facing Italy and Germany already, perhaps. Spain won’t mind having most of the ball at all. In fact, they will expect to.
The real issue is what they do with it in the final third against a team that is so well-drilled, so well set up and so unconcerned by allowing the ball to be with their rivals. That’s where Dani Olmo comes in.
Luis de la Fuente spoke after the win over Germany about the importance of the squad and trusting that this group of players, all of them and not just the starters, were capable of stepping up and playing the way he wants them to.
That will tested this time around as Olmo is one of the players literally coming in: Pedri is injured, Robin Le Normand and Dani Carvajal suspended. There are options around what to do at right-back but Nacho seems a certain starter and Olmo is the natural alternative to Pedri, having already replaced him against the hosts and as starter in the final group game.
Missing Pedri is big, of course, and it would be remiss to suggest Spain are better without him in any way. But on this specific occasion, it might just be that Olmo is of more benefit.
That’s primarily because there are differences in how they operate in that No 10 role, the most advanced of three central options for Spain. Pedri is of course incredible in possession, able to keep hold of the ball, take it on the half-turn, find pockets and through balls and get himself into the area too. He’s a magical player to watch, a tremendously tough one to stop. But he does his best work – almost all his work, the heatmaps show us – in very localised and central areas of the pitch, one which France will be yet again set up to close out at every opportunity.
With Pedri in the team he’d be scheming in between the elite ball-winner N’Golo Kante, probably Aurelien Tchouameni and possibly Adrien Rabiot as well.
Olmo, on the other hand, restricts himself less to just that centre of the park, and to less than the zone in front of the centre-backs.
He will rove out wide, creating overloads, letting Spain’s dangerous wingers find other avenues to exploit. He will dart beyond Alvaro Morata, so often a facilitator for La Roja’s build-up play but not always in place to tuck away a finish. And Olmo will be both chance-maker and chance-taker himself, given the opportunity – as is evidenced by the fact his productivity rate – goals and assists per minute – is better than anybody else at the tournament.
Considering he has not been a starter, two goals and two assists is a formidable return – he’s actually one goal away from winning the Golden Boot as things stand, given assists are the next divider when scoring terms are equal.
Question France’s attacking intent if you will, but not their defence. They’ve conceded once, and that was a penalty. Against any low block or well-drilled back line, the critical paths towards goal are speed of play and movement. Spain, of all teams, have no issue with technical quality – they can pick the pass and they can make it. It’s movement which will define whether they can breach the best quartet at Euro 2024, and as much as Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal are the obvious on-the-ball dangermen, their movements are often predictable and repeatable, if not necessarily stoppable.
Instead, it’s Olmo who holds the key to unlock this particular door, one which leads past Mike Maignan and down the road to Berlin.