With the second State of Origin ahead, a reduced round of NRL fixtures means a delayed start to the round. Action begins on Friday with a Top 4 match between the Dolphins and the Storm. Unfortunately, this game has been robbed of quality, but it will still mean plenty to the players involved. With just 4 competition points separating them on the ladder, a victory here could mean a lot come the Finals at the end of the season. Before You Bet is here to guide you through by taking a comprehensive look at the action ahead.
2024 NRL Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm
Suncorp Stadium – Friday 21st June – 8pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Dolphins have jumped up the competition ladder (and the NRL Power Rankings) into the Top 4 following their determined 30-28 victory over the Sharks on the road. They started strongly, leading 22-nil inside 25 minutes; they controlled the speed of play well and took their chances. Usually having a strong defensive structure, their opponents were unable to halt their momentum. Though eventually, that stopped and they were in danger of heading to extra time when their opponents crossed in the 80th minute. They were rewarded for their strong play for majority of the contest, and this was reflected statistically. With 54% possession they completed at 92%, averaged 9.3m per carry, missed just 28 tackles and made just 2 total errors.
The Storm were slow starters in their match against the Warriors in New Zealand but finished strongly to prevail 38-24. They were outclassed in the first 15 minutes but took control with measured play; when chances came their way, they were ruthless in taking them. The 7-try performance was an impressive one. The win was made even more notable as they had just 46% possession and completed at 76%, while also making 200 few metres and only 399 PCM’s. They need to be better defensively too, missing a total of 45 tackles. Perhaps a better team would’ve punished them; winning in such a commanding manner will give this side plenty of confidence.
Match Prediction
The Storm have received a huge boost with Papenhuyzen returning at fullback, allowing Faalogo to shift to the wing. Despite losing Grant, they have a system which will promote success and having Hughes at halfback maintains stability. This has seen the visitors posted as favourites ($2.50 vs $1.53). The Dolphins lost Tabuai-Fidow and Kaufusi but have suitable replacements in Fuller and Bromwich returning. The Storm still appear to be a stronger across the park but cannot afford to allow the Dolphins to gain momentum. They have little trouble scoring points, yet, neither do the Storm. They average 27ppg compared to the Dolphins 26ppg. It is also close on defence too with the Storm conceding slightly less (19ppg vs 21ppg) than their opponents.
The belief growing within the Dolphins will be needed because the Storm are the competition leaders for a reason. They will be made to pay for their mistakes but so too will the visitors. They are up against a team which will be more resilient than they face last week; the poise of Katoa at halfback is impressive to watch. It will be a tight game and the Storm are the preferred selection.
It will be a tight game though; 70% of the Storms games this season have been decided by a 1-12 margin, while their largest losing margin is 7 points. The Dolphins have won 3 games (in 8 victories) by 13+ margin but they have come against lesser opponents; only 2 losses have come by a 13+ margin and they were earlier in the year. This further supports the suggestion of a close game, with the visitors the greater chance of winning.
Storm 1-12
$3.10 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
We’ve collaborated with exciting new bookmaker, QuestBet, to bring you a great value Same Game Multi for the opening game of each AFL & NRL round. Simply click this link or the image below to jump on our Dolphins vs Storm SGM.
The first option is ‘playing it safe’ in case the Storm do not win. We still want this option to be alive. Papenhuyzen is a key inclusion for his team and has a phenomenal try scoring record this season, scoring 7 tries in 8 games. Wishart has a 50% strike rate (6 tries) and moving him to 5/8 has allowed his strong support play to come to the forefront of his game.
SGM Odds: $14 at QuestBet (0.5 Units)
