Collingwood faces an early “elimination final” in Friday night’s showdown against Geelong, with a loss potentially spelling “curtains” for its premiership defence, according to dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna.
The Magpies have dropped their last two games to slide outside the top eight in a season Craig McRae’s side, compounded by widespread injuries, hasn’t played with the same spark as its 2023 premiership run.
While barely anything separates a logjam of finals-contending teams – including the ninth-placed Pies sitting just a game and a half behind third place – Montagna believes another loss against the Cats would be a significant blow to their September hopes in a “must win” game.
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“I want to put this week fair and squarely on Collingwood, I think this is almost an elimination final come early for Collingwood,” Montagna said on Fox Footy’s The First Crack.
“If they win this game, they’re right in the (finals) mix and they’ll probably be in the top eight and start to get some momentum.
“But if they lose it might be curtains on their 2024 season. It’ll mean they’ll be a game outside the top eight and need to win four of their six games on the run home. It’s not going to be easy.
“I think this is a massive game for Craig McRae to somehow find the best of Collingwood, get their spirit going and keep their spirit alive.”
It comes amid more Collingwood changes as it welcomes back Jamie Elliott for the gun forward’s first game since Round 9 due to a vascular issue in his foot, though Jeremy Howe (hamstring) and Brody Mihocek (pectoral) go out to leave McRae’s side undersized.
After Friday night’s clash with Geelong, the Pies face Hawthorn, Richmond, Carlton, Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne on their run home, but only leave the MCG once in its Round 22 clash with Sydney – likely needing to win at least four of those games to play finals.
Despite the injuries, the numbers show Collingwood has declined from a defensive standpoint in recent weeks.
Since the bye they rank 15th in the AFL in pressure, 15th in opposition ball movement and 17th in opposition score per inside 50, having dropped off from sitting third, top six and top three in the three areas respectively previously.
“They’re not playing great footy since the bye, it’s been really, really ordinary,” Montagna added.
“There’s a lot of talk about injuries, but the stuff we’ve been showing and these numbers don’t have a lot to do with talent.
“It’s got to do with their desire, connection and real want to get back to their best footy.”
Dual premiership Kangaroo David King however believes the Pies have “been a victim of consistently changing the magnets,” having played the most players of any side over the last five weeks (32), while just 13 players have played every game in that same period.
“I don’t care who you are – we keep saying health is your best player when you get to this point of the year, if not deeper,” King said.
“Better talent make better decisions and make everything easy – you get more guidance, leadership and absolutely influence. Talent just does things that saves you more often than not.”
Moving forward, King implored McRae to be prepared to throw his youngsters into the midfield more given the senior Magpies haven’t been getting it done in recent weeks.
“I think Craig has been too trusting of the same troops for four quarters, they haven’t got the job done for the first three quarters,” he said.
“I’d be throwing the young kids into the middle and say: ‘Go and see if you can do it’. If it doesn’t work, we can always go back to those senior guys who have done it in fits and starts late in game.”