Continuing our look at gear changes this week concentrating on the results for horses being gelded and tongue ties on and off.
Firstly, some background on the data.
It covers the period 1 January, 2023 to April 30, 2024, and I have chosen not to include horses that were gelded or had a tongue tie on for their first start.
EXPERT PROFILE: How Greg Polson continues to be a winning punter
The sample sizes are not huge in some of the tables so the information should be taken as a guide however there is still some thought-provoking outcomes provided by the data.
I will leave it to Racenet readers to draw their own conclusions and if the data will help there punting.
Before we look at this week’s data let’s take a quick look at what we have found over the last couple of weeks.
EDUCATION: Are Changes Of Tactics Profitable?
Our change of tactics article showed that horses notified to race forward could be an angle to assist punters and a few trainers are better than others in deciding when a change of tactic could be viable.
Change of tactics to go back are poison, it’s as simple as that.
Blinkers first time is overrated in the marketplace, blinkers off first time and winkers first time are a better angle to look for punters.
EDUCATION: Are blinkers and winkers a profitable gear change?
Let’s start this week’s analysis.
Tongue Tie on first time
| Starters | Winning Strike Rate per cent | Profit/Loss on Turnover per cent |
| 2026 | 8 | -42.3 percent |
What happens if we add some price filters.
| SP | Starters | Winning Strike Rate per cent | Profit/Loss on Turnover per cent |
| Less than $2 | 38 | 53 | -15.3 |
| Less than $3 | 130 | 39 | -17.4 |
| Less than $6 | 488 | 23 | -25.3 |
| Less than $11 | 907 | 15 | -34.2 |
| Less than $21 | 1316 | 12 | -28.4 |
Tongue tie off first time
| Starters | Winning Strike Rate per cent | Profit/Loss on Turnover per cent |
| 583 | 11 | -.01 |
What happens if we add some price filters.
| SP | Starters | Winning Strike Rate per cent | Profit/Loss on Turnover per cent |
| Less than $2 | 11 | 73 | +16.4 |
| Less than $3 | 27 | 52 | +5.2 |
| Less than $6 | 111 | 32 | +5.3 |
| Less than $11 | 222 | 22 | +7.9 |
| Less than $21 | 334 | 18 | +21.4 |
That’s a huge difference from a punting perspective and further evidence that the marketplace over rates gear changes for the first time while the converse applies when gear comes off.
Gelded
| Starters | Winning Strike Rate per cent | Profit/Loss on Turnover per cent |
| 516 | 16 | -24.3 percent |
What happens if we add some price filters.
| SP | Starters | Winning Strike Rate per cent | Profit/Loss on Turnover per cent |
| Less than $2 | 24 | 71 | +13.3 |
| Less than $3 | 72 | 50 | +3.2 |
| Less than $6 | 211 | 30 | -10.5 |
| Less than $11 | 330 | 22 | -18.5 |
| Less than $21 | 415 | 19 | -17.4 |
Horses racing as a gelding for the first time at a starting price less than $3 are a profitable grouping.
Does the age when a horse is gelded have an effect?
| Age | Starters | Winning Strike Rate per cent | Profit/Loss on Turnover per cent |
| 2 | 22 | 23 | +36.4 |
| 3 | 287 | 15 | -26.4 |
| 4 | 135 | 18 | -18.4 |
| 5 | 51 | 10 | -61 |
| 6 and older | 21 | 14 | -7.6 |
Two-year-olds being gelding is worth a thought as a punting angle, remembering that this figure represents horses gelded after their first start.
Let’s have a look at some of the leading trainers.
| Trainer | Starters | Winning Strike Rate per cent | Profit/Loss on Turnover per cent |
| Chris Waller | 36 | 14 | -1.9 |
| James Cummings | 25 | 24 | +14.4 |
| Annabel Neasham | 24 | 17 | -21.7 |
| Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | 13 | 23 | +56.2 |
| Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | 13 | 31 | +11.5 |