If there’s anything we here at Niners Nation love it’s when people talk about the San Francisoc 49ers. And I love it when they say good things about the 49ers. Seth Walder at ESPN did a deep tive into his analytics via ESPN’s Football Power Index and has the 49ers a favorites to win the Super Bowl. To make us all feel better (or in my case worse) he even called the 49ers the best team even if they didn’t win the Super Bowl in the 2023 season.
Although San Francisco fell short in overtime at the Super Bowl, there’s no mistaking its elite play throughout the 2023 season. Postseason included, the 49ers were clearly the best offense in terms of EPA per play at 0.15, solidly ahead of the Buffalo Bills (0.12) and the Dallas Cowboys (0.11). Pairing that with a top-10 defense made the 49ers the best team in football in the FPI’s mind, even if they didn’t win.
There’s a few other things that go into this. Walden noted the NFC is a bit weaker on average than the AFC, which benefits the 49ers. Overall they have a 25 percent chance to make the game and a 16 percent chance to win it.
I will take those odds. We’ve already discussed what would hold the 49ers back from making the playoffs but beyond the playoffs, what stops them from the Super Bowl. Really, my only thing is the sheer difficulty in getting back there. The last time the 49ers had a chance at back to back Super Bowls was during the Jim Harbaugh era. They unfortunately not only played in the same conference as the Seattle Seahawks, they also played in the same division. I do still think the Seahawks were beneficiaries of a lot of luck going their way, even more than the Kansas City Chiefs, but that’s how you win championships, unfortunately.
In 2024, no such barrier is there. Yet anyways. The Los Angeles Rams are going to be much better and the Detroit Lions might have something to say about this as well. I also think the grind itself of finishing the previous season in February and coming back only a few months later may get to the players.
The good news is the 49ers have most of their offense returning/upgraded and have retooled the defense minus a Steve Wilks. They were dominating everyone in 2023, so stands to reason they can continue that.
ESPN says a 49ers/Chiefs rematch has a 6 percent chance of happening. I’d actually like it, to be honest. To beat the man, you gotta beat the man. Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls were terrorized by the Detroit Pistons for three years until finally getting over the hump and I look at the Chiefs as the 49ers’ (and Brock Purdy’s) Detroit Pistons. By the way, after the road block, the Bulls had their first three-peat. The NFL is very, very different, but if Purdy is as good as we all hope he is, this could shape up somewhat similar with a championship ring.
It’s not a given. While the 49ers got a bit better and still remain the elite of the NFC, other teams got much, much, better, closing the gap. I expect the 49ers to have a successful season, but the number of blowouts will probably be less. Besides, the 49ers like to play with their food.
Nothing here is a given. But 25 percent sounds good to me.