ESPN’s ACC Football Predictions Not Kind to Cal

ESPN and CBS Sports this week provided some predictions regarding the 2024 Atlantic Coast Conference football season, and both project Cal will finish near the middle of the pack with a chance to finish with a winning overall record.

ESPN’s ACC preview is filled with charts and graphs, and its rating system predicts Cal will finish 10th in the 17-team ACC, with a 1.3% chance of winning the ACC title but a 64.9% chance of winning six games or more in its 12-game schedule.

For its preview, ESPN placed ACC teams in three categories:

— 1. Conference title (and therefore CFP) contenders:

That group included two schools:

Florida State

Clemson

—2. A couple of breaks away from a run

That group included seven schools:

Miami

SMU

Louisville

North Carolina State

Virginia Tech

Duke

North Carolina

—3. Just looking for a path to 6-6

That group included the remaining eight schools:

Cal

Georgia Tech

Syracuse

Boston College

Virginia

Wake Forest

Pittsburgh

Stanford

Here is what ESPN said about Cal:

Head coach: Justin Wilcox (eighth year, 36-43 overall)

2024 projection: 52nd in SP+, 6.1 average wins (3.5 in ACC)

California fooled me about four different times last year. After going just 10-18 over the last three seasons, Justin Wilcox’s Golden Bears boasted one of the nation’s better running backs in the country (Jaydn Ott) and a solid bend-don’t-break defense that forced loads of mistakes and turnovers. They began the season 3-2 but lost four games in a row while incredibly scoring 40, 14, 49 and 19 points. They needed to win their last three games to bowl for the first time in four years … and did so, finishing with a 33-7 blowout at UCLA. Then they no-showed in the Independence Bowl, losing to Texas Tech by 20. It was basically a season that resembled Wilcox’s rickety Cal tenure as a whole: up, down, up, down, etc.

In their good moments, however, they looked awfully interesting, and in Ott, big-play slot man Trond Grizzell and three big linemen, their best offensive players return. Wilcox also got super aggressive in the portal — always tricky for a smart-kid school — adding both stellar Group of 5 and FCS starters (North Texas quarterback Chandler Rogers, ODU running back Kadarius Calloway, NMSU receiver Jonathan Brady, FCS All-American lineman Rush Reimer) and some unproven former blue-chippers like receiver Kyion Grays (Ohio State). Between Rogers and sophomore Fernando Mendoza, a good QB should emerge. And Ott’s awesome.

After four straight years in the defensive SP+ top 30, Cal’s defense collapsed to 79th in 2022, then 84th in 2023. If you made a mistake, they punished it with a takeaway, but the Bears were horrifically inefficient (121st in success rate allowed). Turnovers were all they had. Seven starters return (eight including tackle Ethan Saunders, injured in 2023), and sophomore linebacker Cade Uluave is a potential star. (Corner Lu-Magia Hearns III is also good.) But if a defensive rebound comes, it will be because of FCS transfers like corner Marcus Harris (Idaho) and linebacker Liam Johnson (Princeton). A good offense might get better, but a sliding defense might not.

My favorite player: RB Jaydn Ott. A powerful runner with home run ability. He’s great in short yardage, and he had more rushes of 10-plus yards (32) than losses (26). When he’s on, nothing else matters — when he averaged 6.0 or more yards per carry, Cal averaged 47.3 points per game. When he didn’t, the Bears averaged 21.6.

CBS Sports provided its predictions on whether Cal would surpass the over/under win total of 6.5 victories.  Different betting sites have different over/under win-total lines for Cal.  Fan Duel places the Bears’ win total at a pessimistic 5.5. Draft Kings and Caesars Sportsbook place the Cal over/under at 6 wins, and BetMGM has the Bears’ win-total line at 6.5 victories.

CBS Sports advises to bet the “over” on an over/under line of 6.5 wins for the Bears, with this commentary and a predictions of the seven games it expects the Bears to win and the four ACC games it predicts Cal will win.

Over/Under 6.5 wins 

Wins: UC Davis, San Diego State, at Pitt, Oregon State, at Wake Forest, Syracuse, Stanford
Losses: at Auburn, at Florida State, Miami, NC State, at SMU

Analysis: The range of possible outcomes seems to be from 6-6 to 8-4, so to see 6.5 offered at plus-money was a surprise after our initial tally. The Bears have a ton of experience throughout the roster, but it’s the offense that could be special in 2024. Not only does running back Jaydn Ott return after a First Team All-Pac-12 showing last season, but the passing options have improved with the additions of Mikey Matthews (Utah) and Tobias Merriwether (Notre Dame). It helps that two of the toss-up games on the schedule (NC State and Syracuse) involve an opponent flying across the country, but Cal will face its own travel demands that we’ll be monitoring on a week-to-week basis. Over 6.5 (+142)