The explosion in the popularity of the NFL has also led to the explosion of data points that can be used to analyze the league. Football, with 22 players, referees and weather, has a wide variety of variables that make it interesting for some fans (not all as Cleveland Browns fans can attest) when those are distilled down to numbers.
In common parlance, those data points are called “analytics.” Not everything called “analytics” actually is. Pro Football Focus, for example, is not an analytic data set. Instead, it is a well-marketed analysis point that ends up in a number.
ESPN is still considered the “worldwide leader in sports” which is why their Football Power Index (FPI) version of power rankings tends to get a lot of attention. FPI gathers data from the past to predict the future. They have rooted their system in Expected Points Added (EPA):
EPA is at the foundation of most advanced football analysis. Unlike other sports such as basketball, scoring points in the NFL is the cumulative result of many previous plays. EPA measures how much each individual play contributes to the scoreboard. Important factors that contribute to winning but are not measured in the box score are reflected in EPA. Lastly, evaluating performance on a per-play basis controls for the pace of play, leading to a better measure of performance.
With most of NFL free agency done and the NFL draft in the rearview, ESPN unveiled their current FPI power rankings which has the Browns ranked 14th. Cleveland’s +0.5 FPI has them closer to the Pittsburgh Steelers (0.0) and bottom third of the league than it does the Baltimore Ravens (+4.8) and Cincinnati Bengals (+3.3) in the rugged AFC North.
ESPN’s rankings would have the Browns outside of the playoffs as the eighth-best team in the AFC behind teams like the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans.
Do you think any analytics can predict how a season will go? How do you feel about where the Browns are currently ranked in ESPN’s FPI?