All four teams in Group 1 are still a mathematical chance to progress to the semi-finals heading into the final two matches
The final day of the Super Eight stage is a punter’s – and tournament organiser’s – dream, with so many outcomes still possible for all teams.
Afghanistan and Bangladesh have an advantage by having the later of the two matches, meaning they’ll know the exact situation they need to progress.
Below are the possible scenarios for Australia, how they can make the semi-finals and how they could miss out.
Remaining Super Eight matches
Australia v India, Daren Sammy Stadium, June 25 at 12.30am AEST
Afghanistan v Bangladesh, Arnos Vale Stadium, June 25 at 10.30am AEST
World Cup standings
If Australia win and Afghanistan win
It would all come down to net run rate. Three teams – Australia, India and Afghanistan – would finish on two wins.
If both results are close victories, Australia would go through.
However, if Australia narrowly win and Afghanistan win big, it could be enough for the Afghans to leapfrog the Aussies on net run rate.
For example, if Australia win by 10 runs, Afghanistan would need to win by 46 runs to go past Australia’s net run rate. If the Aussies win by one, Afghanistan would need a margin of 34 runs or greater.
If Australia win and Bangladesh win
This is the best situation for Australia and would guarantee their path to the next round, as both India and Australia would finish with two wins, while Bangladesh and Afghanistan finish with one.
Net run-rate (NRR) would then decide which of Australia and India would finish top, to determine not where they would play – India will play the Guyana semi-final – but who they would face.
The team finishing first would play England who finished second in Group 2, while the team finishing second would play South Africa.
If India win and Bangladesh win
Surprisingly, Australia would still be alive even if they lost to India. But, it would require an upset victory by Bangladesh over Afghanistan.
The NRR would come into account if Australia were smashed and Afghanistan only narrowly beaten. For example, if Australia lost by 31 runs and Afghanistan lost by just one run, Afghanistan would go through with the superior NRR.
But if the losing margins were the same or close enough, Australia would go through.
For Bangladesh to go through, they’d need to win by a minimum of 55 runs (depending on the India-Australia result).
If India win and Afghanistan win
Goodnight for Australia in this scenario, Australia would be stuck on one win while India and Afghanistan would go through on three and two wins respectively.
What happens if there’s a washout?
A washout in the Australia-India match and a win to Afghanistan would send them through, while Australia would need to beat India if the Afghanistan-Bangladesh match is washed out and points shared. A washout in both matches would be enough for India and Australia to progress.
Australia’s Group B fixtures
June 6: Beat Oman by 39 runs
June 9: Beat England by 36 runs
June 12: Beat Namibia by nine wickets
June 16: Beat Scotland by five wickets
Super Eight fixtures
21 June: Beat Bangladesh by 28 runs (DLS method)
23 June: Lost to Afghanistan by 21 runs
25 June: v India, Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, St Lucia, 12.30am AEST
Semi-finals to follow if Australia qualify
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