The first three games of this series were remarkably similar. The Celtics scored 107, 105 and 106 points while the Mavericks put up 89, 98 and 99. Game 4 opened a new dimension, as it was the first blowout with the scripts being flipped. Boston scored only 84 points while Dallas was galloping across the plains like Genghis Khan for 122 points. Was that game an aberration or did that signify a new paradigm? Will Boston hoist their 18th chip in front of the home folk, or will Dallas find a way to keep Boston at bay like a big brother extending his arm to keep little brother from hitting him?
DraftKings Sportsbook has BOS -6.5 over DAL at home. The total is 209.5. Kristaps Porzingis ($8,000) is questionable. He was upgraded to available for Game 4, but Coach Mazzulla said that he would only play in certain situations. Porzingis never got off the bench. Keep track of injury updates at DK Live.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1M Finals Shootaround Special [$200K to 1st] (DAL @ BOS)
Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks
Captain’s Picks
Jaylen Brown ($14,700 CP): Brown was fantastic to open this series, displaying his all-around game while showcasing his bucket-getting ability. He went for 44.5, 40 and 53.5 DKFP. Then Game 4 happened, when he shot 3-of-12 from the field and 1-of-5 from downtown, finishing with 13.75 DKFP. It wasn’t just him, though, as the entire Boston team just didn’t have it. As Monica sang over a decade ago, it was just one of those days. Coming back home, I think Brown gets back to his 40-DKFP ways. The intensity at both ends of the court will likely be heightened, which should result in fantasy goodies falling down like confetti from the rafters.
UTIL Plays
Luka Doncic ($13,800): Boston has been content with letting Luka go one-on-one. He is so good that he’s going to get his regardless. Their focus has been making sure that no one else goes off. That didn’t exactly happen in Game 4, but that had more to do with lack of offensive execution while Dallas was on a different level intensity wise. I don’t think Luka has a “have-to-have-it” score, but he will likely put up the most raw points on the Dallas side.
Jrue Holiday ($7,000): Role players usually play better at home, and I like all of them from the Boston bench tonight. I never expect Holiday to garner a high usage rate, but he should get plenty of good chances to get buckets while doing his thing on the glass and at the defensive end of the court. In this series, he’s grabbed three, four, 11 and eight rebounds. While I don’t expect a ceiling game from Holiday, it’s within the range of outcomes. In Game 2, everything clicked and he put up 50.75 DKFP. I’m expecting something more in the 30-DKFP range.
Derrick White ($7,600): As with Holiday, White won’t garner a high usage rate. That honor goes to Tatum and Brown. White will drain the open J, and he should get plenty of good looks in this one. White doesn’t do as much work on the glass as Holiday, but he gets busy on the defensive end as well. I also like him to go for somewhere in the 30-DKFP range.
Fades
Kyrie Irving ($9,000): Kyrie was fantastic in the two games at home, putting up 21 and 35 points. In the first two games at Boston, he went for 12 and 16 points. I expect Boston to ratchet up the defensive pressure in this one and lock down everyone but Luka. Kyrie is so scoring dependent, that if he’s inefficient shooting, it’s tough for him to cobble up a decent fantasy game because he doesn’t contribute much in the defensive categories and doesn’t dish out dimes on a consistent basis.
THE OUTCOME
I like Boston to push the pace and ratchet up the defensive pressure in this one, resulting in turnovers and breakaway dunks. The first three games were played closely to the vest, with both teams jabbing and moving. Dallas brought out the rain makers in Game 4, thrusting from the corner they were in to wobble the Celtics. I expect Boston to come out with flurries of their own while bobbing and weaving to avoid getting hit, resulting in a blowout to return the favor for Game 4.
Final Score: Celtics 118, Mavericks 97
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1M Finals Shootaround Special [$200K to 1st] (DAL @ BOS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.