Fifteen NBA Observations on Free Agency, Lauri Markkanen, and the Best Deals So Far

We’re just a few days into 2024 NBA free agency, but there’s been no shortage of movement and ripple effects across the league, headlined by Paul George’s decision to join the Philadelphia 76ers. To examine all the action, here are 15 observations about what has—and hasn’t—happened in NBA free agency so far.

1. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the West’s big winners.

Last week, I wrote about how Oklahoma City’s acquisition of Alex Caruso not only served as an upgrade over Josh Giddey, but would also empower Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace to handle the ball more. The signing of center Isaiah Hartenstein could have an even more significant impact since now Chet will be aided by another stout rim protector who also happens to be an elite rebounder. And Hartenstein’s incredible screening and connective passing ability will add a new dimension to the Thunder offense.

Hartenstein is also only 26 years old, and there could be more to his game than he was able to show with the Knicks. For example, he has made 31 percent of his 87 3-point attempts in his NBA career. Could the Thunder retain five-out spacing by asking him to hit corner and top-of-the-key 3s? And on defense, could Hartenstein be asked to switch more on-ball actions, considering he’s had success with them in the past? My gut tells me that the Thunder have more planned for Hartenstein than he’s ever been able to do, which could end up making his three-year, $87 million deal look like a bargain.

2. Two-big lineups are back.

The Celtics just won the NBA title with Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford sharing the court. The Timberwolves dominated all year with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns in the middle. And teams like the Bucks, Cavaliers, and Magic have also leaned heavily on two-big lineups. Now the rest of the league is catching on.

The Thunder added Hartenstein to pair with Holmgren, the Heat selected Kel’el Ware to join a frontcourt led by Bam Adebayo, and the Grizzlies took Zach Edey to play with Jaren Jackson Jr. Even young teams like the Wizards (Alex Sarr and Jonas Valanciunas) and the Trail Blazers (Deandre Ayton and Donovan Clingan) are sizing up. One-third of the NBA could frequently deploy two-big lineups next season. After the small-ball era, the bigs are back once again.

3. The Philadelphia 76ers are the East’s big winners.

Over a month ago, I reported that Paul George was plan A for Philadelphia, but there was no certainty that he’d end up leaving Southern California. Well, Daryl Morey got his man. George is heading to the Sixers, creating a perfect match on the court next to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

George made 44.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s last season, so he’s automatically a better target than Tobias Harris ever was. He’ll be playing a more condensed role in Philly, but his ability as a shot creator will allow the Sixers to rely on him when it makes sense. As I wrote in late May: “In Philly, Embiid is the man. Maxey is the energizer. George could be that chill presence who offers steady buckets on a nightly basis but can also go off on any night he’s feeling it or has the best matchup.” In addition, the Sixers have brought in Eric Gordon and Andre Drummond and re-signed Kelly Oubre. There are still moves to come, but this group is already looking like the best team of the entire Embiid era.

4. The Los Angeles Clippers aren’t total losers.

Letting a star walk for nothing is never a good thing. But I understand why the Clippers refused to give a fourth year to George, who is 34 years old. By not re-signing George and gaining more cap flexibility, the Clippers were instead able to re-sign James Harden while adding Nic Batum, Derrick Jones Jr., Kevin Porter, Kris Dunn, and Mo Bamba. Suddenly, they have a deep roster with a ton of guys who can make plays off the dribble or grind on defense.

To make it all work, the Clippers are depending on the health of Harden and Kawhi Leonard. But George’s importance was diminished when Harden took the ball out of his hands and because George and Leonard have too many overlapping skills; he wasn’t worth the money and reduced cap flexibility for the Clippers. Now, we’re beginning to see the vision they have for a future without him.

5. Cheap ownership might foil the Denver Nuggets’ dynasty plans.

While the Celtics just signed their fifth player to a contract worth $30 million or more annually, the Nuggets were unwilling to even give $20 million a year to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who drained 41.5 percent of his 3s in two seasons with the team and was a critical perimeter defender.

After Bruce Brown left last summer, it’s the second year in a row one of Calvin Booth’s key acquisitions walked for nothing in free agency. But that’s what happens when your ownership is afraid of a tax bill. Before last season, Booth was open about the long view he was taking by investing in young players to build a foundation with. But head coach Michael Malone was reluctant to play those rookies, and now there’s a lack of clarity about what the rotation will look like. Christian Braun has some size and strength advantages over KCP on defense, but he also made fewer than one-fourth of his 3s in the playoffs. Can Julian Strawther step up? Is a trade incoming? Will they sign another veteran? For now, the Nuggets get an incomplete grade for their offseason. But ownership’s decisions could hurt their odds of building a team that stays in contention.

6. The Nuggets should not sign Russell Westbrook.

DNVR’s Harrison Wind reported this week that Nikola Jokic wants Westbrook on the Nuggets. That would be a major mistake. They are already stretched thin in shooting, ranking last in 3-point attempts last season. Westbrook is one of the worst high-volume shooters in league history, and since going to the Clippers and shooting at a lower volume, he’s still made only 30.0 percent of his 3s. There is no way for Westbrook and Aaron Gordon to share the floor. Defenders already sag off Gordon, creating challenges for Denver’s half-court offense. We’ve seen defenses flat out ignore Westbrook, rendering him unplayable. The Nuggets may feel that they need downhill playmaking and rim pressure, but Russ was one of the league’s least efficient scorers in the paint, and he’s an erratic passer. Sure, he’d provide a veteran spark for the locker room, much like DeAndre Jordan has. But is that worth taking developmental minutes from their other young players? Russ was one of the first American stars to ever embrace Jokic, so they’ve had a relationship for years now. But if the Nuggets sign him, Jokic would soon find out why he’s been on five teams in five years.

7. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is better for the Orlando Magic than Paul George would be.

On a three-year, $66 million deal, Caldwell-Pope provides value in the short term as a knockdown shooter and a lockdown defender. But in the longer term, he’s also now signed to a very tradable salary if he declines at all before his deal is up. This would not have been the case for George. The Magic will probably need to make one or two big trades to take the leap from a nice young team to a serious contender, so having these lower salary numbers on the books is vital. The Pacers created the blueprint this past year by signing Bruce Brown to a salary number comparable to KCP’s, then flipping him for Pascal Siakam. Orlando would obviously be happy to keep KCP for all three years of his deal, but the added flexibility makes this an even smarter move.

8. The Dallas Mavericks got way better.

So far, Dallas has upgraded from Tim Hardaway Jr. to Klay Thompson, from Derrick Jones to Naji Marshall, and from Josh Green to Quentin Grimes. Thompson has declined defensively, and even his shot isn’t what it once was, but he’s still a far more dynamic shooter than THJ and will enable the Mavericks to install more motion concepts. Marshall is a more complete offensive player than Jones and is in the same ballpark on defense but has more size. And although Green has shown flashes, he’s never experienced the highs that Grimes has as an on-ball defender or a scorching-hot scorer. Each of these three swaps seems quite marginal when assessed independently, but collectively, they could be significant.

9. The Golden State Warriors might not be done.

Chris Paul was waived. Thompson was traded away for two second-round picks. Steph Curry is 36 years old, and Draymond Green is 34. Golden State’s run looks over … right? Well, maybe not quite. The Athletic’s Tim Kawakami says that the Warriors are intent on making something happen, and all reports indicate that their target is Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen.

Golden State is reportedly discussing sending Jonathan Kuminga to Utah along with picks (the Warriors can deal firsts in 2025 and 2027, plus swaps in four other years). Markkanen would in no way propel the Warriors back to favorite status. But he’d certainly help, especially if their core young pieces continue ascending. Could Brandin Podziemski take a leap in his second season? Could Moses Moody do the same if he has consistent opportunities and remains on the roster? We’ll see whether the Warriors can even get Lauri, but his arrival could salvage Golden State’s tumultuous offseason.

10. The Lauri Markkanen sleeper team

First, the Jazz drafted big man Kyle Filipowski. Then they signed another one, Drew Eubanks. They already have John Collins and Walker Kessler under contract. Where exactly does that leave Markkanen? Sure, he could play some small forward like he did in Cleveland. But it’s not his best position; he’s better as a 4. And even if we put aside the roster crunch, there’s the simple fact that he’ll be an unrestricted free agent in 12 months. Utah isn’t far along enough in its rebuild to warrant paying Markkanen a max like another team should.

Yahoo’s Jake Fischer says that the Kings have inquired about Markkanen. This is good news if you’re a Sacramento fan. Before last season, I said that the Kings need frontcourt upgrades over or alongside Domantas Sabonis. Markkanen’s scoring prowess and defensive versatility are exactly what I’m talking about. So is Kessler’s rim protection, if the Kings could scoop him, too. I’d give up Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, and draft picks to get both. The Kings could then roll into next season with a nine-man rotation made up of Sabonis, Markkanen, Kessler, Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox, Devin Carter, Harrison Barnes, Trey Lyles, and Keon Ellis. Would they be the favorites in the West? Nope. But they’d be a playoff team with the depth and top-end talent to make a run.

11. The Milwaukee Bucks are confusing me.

The 2024 NBA draft class was filled with upperclassman prospects who are ready to contribute as rookies. You’d think a contending team like Milwaukee, which was armed with two picks, would take advantage. Instead, the Bucks drafted two unready, raw teenagers, guard AJ Johnson and forward Tyler Smith. Terrence Shannon (Minnesota), Baylor Scheierman (Boston), and Tyler Kolek (New York) were just a few of the many players still on the board at no. 23 who could’ve helped the Bucks. Maybe general manager Jon Horst knows that head coach Doc Rivers isn’t playing any rookie, no matter how ready they are. But if that’s the case, then they have a bigger problem on their hands if a journeyman like Delon Wright is their only free agent solution so far. The summer isn’t over yet, of course. But teams like the Sixers, Knicks, and Magic are taking leaps, and the Bucks are off to an undeniably strange start.

12. Brook Lopez is twisting in the wind.

A few weeks ago, I reported that the Bucks would like to play a more versatile style of defense next season. This raised questions about whether Lopez has a future in Milwaukee. In the time since, multiple reports have indicated that the Bucks have indeed listened to offers for him. Yahoo’s Fischer says that the Lakers have inquired about his availability. As of now, nothing seems concrete. But the Bucks are in the middle of a flop of an offseason. And so are the Lakers, after they whiffed on all their free agent targets. In the days to come, maybe there’s a deal to be made that would send Lopez to L.A., D’Angelo Russell to a third team, and pieces to the Bucks.

13. Chris Paul is perfect for the San Antonio Spurs.

How psyched must Victor Wembanyama be after going from Jeremy Sochan to Tre Jones to the freaking Point God? With Paul heading to the Spurs on a one-year, $11 million deal, San Antonio is set to become Lob City South. CP3 will constantly feed Wemby high above the rim, just like he did ages ago on the Clippers, when he played with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. Last season, Wemby was on the receiving end of 108 attempted lobs, second in the NBA. A decade ago DJ used to routinely lead the NBA with around 150 per season. It would not be unreasonable to expect Wemby to approach that number with Paul.

Beyond his passing ability, Paul will teach Wembanyama the best angles for setting screens, a lesson that will benefit him for years to come, no matter who his future point guard is. And one of those guards could be rookie Stephon Castle, whom the Spurs drafted fourth in June. We’ve already seen the effect that Paul can have on a young point guard in a short time after he and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander connected during Paul’s lone year in Oklahoma City. And now Castle will reap the same benefits.

14. The Atlanta Hawks might be screwed.

What Atlanta got back for point guard Dejounte Murray is fair: firsts in 2025 and 2027, plus Larry Nance Jr., Dyson Daniels, and E.J. Liddell. But it doesn’t come close to the three valuable firsts and one swap the Hawks originally gave up to get Murray from San Antonio. The Hawks’ current roster will barely compete for the playoffs in the East, and they don’t own the rights to any of their firsts until 2028. If the Spurs called today offering those picks back for Trae Young, the Hawks would happily say yes. But San Antonio is holding them hostage, opting to sign CP3 as a placeholder rather than make a trade for a point guard like Trae. As good as Young is, San Antonio would benefit a lot more from being patient. The Hawks have looked nothing but incompetent in recent years. They’d better hope that Zaccharie Risacher works out, or it’ll get ugly fast.

15. DeMar DeRozan could be the steal of the summer.

Call me crazy, but maybe someone who averaged 24 points and 5.3 assists per game while limiting turnovers, dominating from the midrange, and leading the NBA in minutes is a pretty damn good player. Per Synergy Sports, DeRozan ranked in the 92nd percentile in pick-and-roll scoring efficiency and in the 86th percentile scoring out of isolations. Even at age 34, he remains a high-level bucket getter with a knack for making plays in the clutch. Yes, he still doesn’t shoot many 3s, and he’s way past his prime on defense. But whether the Clippers, the Lakers, or someone else ends up landing DeRozan, they’re still getting a high-quality player.