Golf betting tips: RBC Canadian Open final round
2.5pts win Robert MacIntyre at 20/21 (General)
1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 10/1 (General 1/3 1,2)
It looked as if joint-overnight leader Ryan Fox could leave the field in his wake when he made an eagle and two birdies in the first five holes to race four clear on day three of the Canadian Open at Hamilton. The lead was still four by the close of play although – here’s the plot twist – it belonged to someone else.
After a sticky start to Moving Day, Fox’s playing partner ROBERT MACINTYRE had disappeared back into the pack. But the Scot, with his dad Dougie on the bag for the first time, produced a scintillating back nine, drained 133 feet of putts on his inward loop and ended a fascinating day clear of the field at 14-under.
Fox, meanwhile, fell away with a string of bogeys to drop four back and now shares second spot with local hero Mackenzie Hughes and American Ben Griffin. Fox’s capitulation started before MacIntyre’s surge so, at one point, a whole host of players were right back in the ball game. But now Rory McIlroy and fellow 7-unders Tom Kim and Corey Conners are seven adrift. Perhaps just a tad too far.
Of course, this is far from done. MacIntyre is yet to win on the PGA Tour and has only twice entered the winner’s circle on the DP World Tour despite having played a Ryder Cup and taken the eye in majors. You’d be very happy to be on the 70s/80s pre-tournament but backing Bob now at the general shade of odds-on – 20/21 best – will be questioned.
And yet it’s far from foolish. All four players with four-shot 54 hole leads on the PGA Tour this season have converted: Jake Knapp, Akshay Bhatia, Chris Gotterup and Davis Riley. Interestingly, all that quartet were also looking for their first win.
There are two other factors I think MacIntyre has in his favour. Having the presence of his seemingly non-excitable father on the bag will help. While it’s easy to think of dad just pottering about in his bucket hat smiling, there’s a harder streak there. MacIntyre jr admitted: “He was having a wee go at me when I was walking from the 10th tee down to the fairway. Look, he was a sporting guy, he knows how to win, knows how to lose, he’s been through it all. He could see my head going a little bit and he’s like, what have you been working on for the last eight weeks, 10 weeks, whatever. I kind of flipped into that mode and tried to find the positive in everything.”
The second factor is being in final-round contention at the recent Myrtle Beach Classic (he started the last day in second) which should also act as a highly useful learning experience that he can tap into. That day he could only muster a closing 72 but golfers love an early chance to put it right next time while the disappointment is still fresh in the memory.
On the stats, there is one obvious big negative. MacIntyre is only 61st in SG: Approach. So far he’s compensated with a brilliant short game: 1st SG: Putting, 3rd Around The Green. But what can’t be measured is his mindset and that’s a huge plus. Speaking after round three on how he’d managed to change his fortunes mid-round, the man from Oman said: “I think it’s my attitude now. I’ve spoken about it all week. I’ve been in a good mindset from the get-go.”
It may not come without stress but I think MacIntyre wins this and I’m happy to go into bat with him and one other for round four, weighting the staking plan so a win for the Scot locks in a profit regardless.
So who stands out? Hughes has played this course over 200 times but I just have a feeling that Canada had its moment last year when Nick Taylor drained a monster putt at the fourth extra hole to become the first home player to win this event in 69 years. London bus theory says two can come along at once but I’ll swerve the 15/2.
Fox doesn’t really appeal at a best 11/1 after losing all his momentum yesterday and the 12s for Griffin isn’t wrong or anything but he hasn’t won on the Korn Ferry let alone the PGA Tour so is passed by. Rory isn’t in the top 15 for anything when looking at his Strokes Gained numbers while Sam Burns (five back) isn’t quite putting well enough.
So perhaps swayed by another good storyline having already been seduced by the Bob and his dad angle, I’ll go for last year’s runner-up TOMMY FLEETWOOD.
The Englishman should really have got it done in regulation time 12 months ago but, when he didn’t, there seemed something inevitable about Taylor beating him in a playoff even though it took a 72-foot putt to do so.
CLICK HERE to back Fleetwood with Sky Bet
Fleetwood, as ever, was gracious in defeat and would be a popular winner here if able to come through and finally get his first PGA Tour success. Stats-wise, he’s the only player in the field in the top 30 for all main Strokes Gained categories and his putter really heated up (6th for SGP in round three compared to 25th for the week) in Saturday’s 6-under 64.
The Englishman is five back from MacIntyre but only one behind Fox, Hughes and Griffin in joint-second. With three each-way places on offer, the general 10/1 definitely appeals. Second or third look very achievable and perhaps this is the position in which Fleetwood is most likely to gain that breakthrough win: a few groups back, pressure off and reeling in a leader that hasn’t won on the PGA Tour either.
Posted at 0936 BST on 02/06/24