The squad has been picked, the group is determined – all that’s left now is for the Boomers to suit up in their questionable ASICS training kit and attempt to wipe the stink of an awkward training camp away in Paris.
They’ve been drawn in the toughest pool (again), with Canada, Spain and Greece standing in their way.
It’s unquestionably the deepest Boomers squad ever assembled, so why does it feel like expectations have dipped significantly three years on from Tokyo’s incredible bronze medal success?
Let’s go through the burning questions…
What should our expectations be for this tournament?
The Boomers are coming off a podium finish at the last Olympic Games and are entering Paris with a better squad – so why are we tempering expectations?
The first question mark is the offence. Patty Mills is 35 and nobody has really emerged as the score-first primary option to fill his role. Can he do it again after a quiet NBA season?
Another factor is the teams around Australia. They’re not only better than Tokyo, but their best players are showing up in a tournament that won’t be affected by COVID.
Yes, the Boomers absolutely earned their medal, but the road will be significantly tougher this time around.
The likes of Nikola Jokic and Serbia, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece, an incredibly deep Canadian team and significantly improved French and German teams loom as significant obstacles before even considering the USA bringing maybe their most talented roster since 1992’s Dream Team.
The Boomers comfortably handled Italy, Germany, Nigeria, Argentina and Slovenia on their road to bronze last time around, but in Paris they’ve been grouped with Spain, Canada and Greece – a significantly tougher path.
They could still escape the group even if they finish third given eight teams advance and there’s three pots of six teams, but to push further into the tournament you really want to be in the top two of the group.
While the casual fan may be expecting Australian to compete for a medal again, escaping the group stage may just be a pass mark and making the final four would be a big tick.
So…
Can Australia get out of the group stage?
They likely only need to win two of the three games to guarantee getting out of the group and they should go in slight favourites against Spain and Greece.
The Spanish side is a team in transition and is now missing the stars who carried them to glory across the 2010s in the Gasol brothers and Ricky Rubio.
Their first game will be against Spain. The tournament might be over on day one if they lose.
Canada is absolutely loaded. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, Lu Dort, Andrew Wiggins, RJ Barrett, Kelly Olynyk, Dillon Brooks – it’s clearly the second best roster behind the U.S.
The Boomers would need to cause a big upset to take them down. Ideally, they push Canada close as they’ll need a strong point differential in case they finish third in the group.
Then there’s Giannis and Greece. The Boomers don’t have great tools to be able to stop him, but it is likely to be the monster they will have to slay to escape the group.
So yes, Australia can get out of the group stage, but they face an uphill battle and a significantly tougher task than they did in Tokyo.
There’s a world where they only beat one of Spain, Canada or Greece, finish third in the group and survive anyway, but that will depend on point differentials and what happens in the other pots.
Has Brian Goorjian alienated a key piece of the Boomers’ future?
Reports on Monday per News Corp suggested Matisse Thybulle was “livid” with being left off the Boomers roster and immediately departed the country on Friday following the warmup games in Melbourne.
Goorjian explained that the decision to go with veterans in Matthew Dellavedova and Joe Ingles in the squad over Thybulle essentially came down to wanting players on the bench providing energy and not being disgruntled about their minutes.
Which seems strange given Thybulle was a huge culture piece in Tokyo and literally helped put the documentary on the tournament together for the Boomers.
Not to mention, unquestionably, Thybulle is a better basketball player than the ageing Delly and Ingles, even if they are greats of the country.
Thybulle would have been perfect to guard Jamal Murray or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and it’s not like Dellavedova would be providing extra offence or shooting. It is a very strange call and one that feels very short-sighted given Thybulle is 27 and will still be in the frame for 2028.
The decision not to bring Chris Goulding when shooting has been a key issue for the Boomers also feels strange.
They’ve clearly decided they want the savvy veterans and the extra size with Will Magnay. Will Goorjian be justified or will his tenure with the Boomers end in sour fashion?
What will the starting 5 look like?
Is Patty Mills still the man to lead this team offensively? After being the hero in Tokyo, he had a tough World Cup campaign and struggled in the warmup games against China.
He is one of the few players on this Boomers roster capable of scoring off the dribble and making things happen – does he have one more big tournament in him?
Josh Giddey and Jock Landale are locks to start alongside Mills – Josh Green is surely likely at the 3 or the 4 and then they have the versatility to go smaller with a Dante Exum or bigger with a Duop Reath.
Against Giannis and Greece, you’d imagine the Boomers could start Landale and Reath in order to help clog the paint. Against Canada’s star guards, do they start Exum or Dyson Daniels for the extra defensive guard?
The Boomers certainly have options and will be able to put strong defensive lineups out there, the question will be where the offence comes from.
And…
Is Josh Giddey the man to lead the next generation of Boomers?
Giddey is the crucial new piece at the helm. He was left off the roster for Tokyo, but has been given the keys to lead this team going forward.
The fit isn’t perfect, though. Giddey’s playmaking and size make him a fascinating prospect, but he is yet to really develop as a shooter and the Boomers lack the rim-runners and perimeter shooters to really maximise his talents.
Ideally, you want the 21-year-old surrounded by shooting and a centre who can rise up and put down lobs, but the Boomers are a team of defensive guards who are streaky at best from three.
It’s something to watch ahead of what has been dubbed the biggest basketball tournament of all time.
It all kicks off on July 27th against Spain. All three games are in great timeslots for an Australian audience meaning the eyes of the country will be on them.