Racenet and Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Flemington meeting.
BEST BET
MUNHAMEK (Race 6, No. 1)
Steadily built fitness before returning to winning form in the Swan Hill Cup. Expecting him to impress again back to at Flemington.
VALUE BET
FIRST MATE (Race 7, No. 15)
Jumped out well and did enough when making late ground first-up. He’ll be much fitter for that and can improve sharply at odds.
EARLY QUADDIE
4, 9, 10, 11/1, 5/2, 5, 8, 11/1, 2, 39
$100 flexi for 78 per cent
BIG6
2, 5, 8, 11/1, 2, 3, 9/1, 2, 5/7, 11, 15, 16/1, 3, 8, 11/1, 2
$100 flexi for 6.5 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1, 2, 5
Race 7: 7, 11, 15, 16
Race 8: 1, 3, 8, 11
Race 9: 1, 2
$100 flexi for 104 per cent
RACE 1: 11:50AM KEN COX HANDICAP (1000m)
Tough race to start the Flemington meeting but REGAL LOVER (6) can improve on his narrow first-up defeat at Pakenham from which he will be fitter. SNEAKY SUNRISE (4) impressed over this course on Anzac Day and should go well again. WHATELEY (11) faces a tough task on debut but has jumped out well. HENLEIN (3) beat older horses on debut and could measure up.
SUGGESTED BET: Regal Lover each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sneaky Sunrise $4.60 – $2.80.
RACE 2: 12:25PM BOYS TO THE BUSH COMMUNITY TROPHY (2540m)
An open race but TARAMANSOUR (9) performed better than it looked on paper at Caulfield and he can do better back up in trip. MIRZANN (11) chased soundly again at Caulfield and looks ready for this distance. QUEEN TAKES KING (10) will be improved after placing over this course first-up. ABERFELDIE BOY (4) wasn’t far away over 200m and has placed in a Victoria Derby over this course.
SUGGESTED BET: Taramansour each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Taramansour $17 – $11.
RACE 3: 1:00PM ROD JOHNSON HANDICAP (1620m)
This looks a good contest but RISE AT DAWN (1) fought on gamely to win narrowly fresh. He’ll be fitter and he meets the second horse better at the weights. CRAIG (5) was stiff to be beaten here second-up but can atone with the right luck. RED GALAXY (8) is promising and has drawn perfectly. SOME PEOPLE CALLME (2) is racing consistently and is worth thought.
SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta 1, 5/1, 5/Field.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Craig $1.70 – $1.60
RACE 4: 1:35PM BRUCE GADSDEN HANDICAP (1420m)
BEOUR BAY (5) is hard fit for this and only went down narrowly at Mornington but has drawn for a soft run in this. STARLIGHT SCOPE (2) raced on the speed and tried hard at Sandown so won’t be far away. EPISODIC (11) ran on well at Caulfield and should be thereabouts again. JENNY JEROME (8) can run on into a placing from the good gate.
SUGGESTED BET: Beour Bay to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Episodic $6 – $5.
RACE 5: 2:10PM COUNTRY ACHIEVER SHANE FLIEDNER (1100m)
ASHFORD STREET (1) will give away up to 6kg to his rivals but there has been a lot to like about his two runs for the Tom Dabernig stable. EXTREMELY LUCKY (3) enjoyed the easier company at Caulfield and races best over this trip. WHO DARES (2) scored in stakes grade down the straight second-up and will go well again. VELOCE CARRO (9) is flying this time in and could measure up to this.
SUGGESTED BET: Ashford Street to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Veloce Carro $4.40 – $3.60.
RACE 6: 2:45PM THE DAVID BOURKE (1620m)
Happy to back MUNHAMEK (1) to post another win after his strong Swan Hill Cup success under 61kg. Apprentice Celine Gaudray’s claim will come in handy. ASCENSION (5) did a good job at Swan Hill and could continue to improve. KING MAGNUS (2) is better than his last run and is worth another chance. SIBAAQ (4) struggled in Sydney but can improve on firmer footing.
SUGGESTED BET: Munhamek to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Windstorm $11 – $5.50.
RACE 7: 3:25PM VRC-CRV TROPHY (1420m)
One of the tougher races of the day but FIRST MATE (15) could be a value runner with the added fitness following a solid first-up run. GENERAL FIREPOWER (16) was too good at Sandown and could also be in this for a long way. TOBAYSURE (7) resumes but is an honest galloper with a strong first-up record. REAL SENSATION (11) is a first-up winner and could sneak a placing despite the draw.
SUGGESTED BET: First Mate each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Tobaysure $18 – $12.
RACE 8: 4:00PM BRIAN BEATTIE HANDICAP (2000m)
Another tricky race but BOGA LEGEND (14) might be over the odds from the good draw while he’s racing like 2000m would suit. MOTORACE (3) gave too much start over 1600m first-up, but he won over 2025m in Saturday grade in the spring. GIFTED GAMER (8) looked in need of extra ground when grinding home at one pace last time while LADY IN PINK (1) has plenty of weight but is racing in top form.
SUGGESTED BET: Boga Legend each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Eliud $7.50 – $5.50.
RACE 9: 4:35PM VRC COUNTRY RACE DAY SPRINT (1100m)
THE BLACK CLOUD (2) has impressive Sydney form and has drawn the right part of the track to win at his Melbourne debut. OAK HILL (1) has impressed in both wins this time in and will be fitter again. INDAZA (13) resumed with a strong win at Sale and could continue to improve. APPARATUS (9) is an improving type and could continue his development.
SUGGESTED BET: The Black Cloud to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Oak Hill $7.50 – $5.50.