There are 10 rounds left to play in the 2024 home-and-away season, and it seems there are only five teams outside the eight that can stage a top-eight assault.
With St Kilda stuck on 20 premiership points from 14 games, it appears the Western Bulldogs (28 points from 14 games), the Gold Coast Suns (28 from 13), Melbourne (28 from 13), Hawthorn (28 from 14) and the Brisbane Lions (26 from 13) are the likeliest finals contenders currently in the bottom 10.
On Fox Footy’s First Crack, two-time premiership Kangaroo David King and 287-game Saint Leigh Montagna gave their predictions on the one side currently on the outs that is best-placed to surge into the top eight by season’s end.
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‘They lost this one in the coaches box’ | 02:53
Foxfooty.com.au has analysed each of the aforementioned five teams’ chances, as well as a brief word on the vulnerable top-eight outfits entering Round 15.
WESTERN BULLDOGS (9th, 7-7, 119.7%)
King placed his faith in the Bulldogs to storm into the eight, following their unexpected thrashing of a feeble Fremantle in Round 14.
“(Montagna) goes through the top eight and tells us it’s semi-locked, but not this year,” King told Fox Footy on Sunday night.
“I think the Western Bulldogs are coming in. I think they’re going to play finals.
“They might not be into the eight in three weeks’ time, but I think in August they’ll be right in there and ready to roll and cause some trouble.”
The Dogs trounced fellow finals fancies Fremantle on Saturday, winning by a staggering 67 points to boost their percentage — second-best in the AFL — and move to ninth position on the ladder.
They are now just half a game behind those Dockers, but Justin Longmuir’s men have a game in hand.
Of the Bulldogs’ nine remaining regular season matches, four come at Marvel Stadium — two of which are against North Melbourne, one against Melbourne and the other against Carlton — as well as a Ballarat-based home game against GWS to close out their campaign.
The Demons, without Christian Petracca, are ripe for the beating under the Docklands roof, while the Roos — while promising on Sunday against Collingwood — will be heavy underdogs against the Dogs.
Add in the on-and-off Giants at an unfamiliar Mars Stadium and they’re some favourable fixtures. The Dogs’ question, though, remains of its consistency.
Luke Beveridge’s side travels outside Victoria just three more times this year; twice to Adelaide to play the Crows and Power, and to Sydney to play the red-hot Swans.
In the AFL’s 18-team era, 13 wins has guaranteed a finals place. That remained the case last season despite the extra game played.
A 5-4 finish — arguably the most realistic outcome — would have the Dogs at 12 wins, while a 6-3 run home — also definitely within the realm of possibility — would give them their magic number 13.
Roos robbed of last-gasp 50m penalty? | 00:42
GOLD COAST SUNS (10th, 7-6, 107.9%)
From a mental perspective, the Suns’ inability to secure a single finals berth in 13 AFL seasons casts doubt over their ability to close out their ‘24 campaign in style.
Further, they are yet to win a single game away from home* this year, having gone 0-6 and eliciting concerns for their hopes of a maiden September berth.
However, Damien Hardwick’s men have made their home turf a fortress this season — in five games at People First Stadium thus far, no side has been able to defeat Gold Coast, while it is also 2-0 this year in ‘home’ games played at Darwin’s TIO Stadium.
Judging by their starkly contrasted home and away form, it’s a fairly simple exercise predicting the Suns’ run home.
Over its 10 remaining fixtures, Gold Coast has just four left at People First Stadium, and they come against tough opposition in Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne.
As for their away dates, the Suns still have to travel to Perth twice, Melbourne three more times, and Sydney once. For a team that simply hasn’t won away from familiar surrounds in 2024, it’s hard to envisage success for them in those fixtures.
A 4-6 finish seems most realistic for these Suns, but a three-win or five-win close could also be on the cards depending on their late-year form. Essendon and Adelaide each finished 11-12 last season for 10th and 11th spots on the ladder respectively, so a 5-5 effort feels like the minimum requirement to seriously challenge.
MELBOURNE (11th, 7-6, 100.1%)
The consensus sentiment is that the Demons have the bleakest finals outlook of these five teams, following disenchanting losses to Fremantle and Collingwood, which were compounded by Petracca’s season-ending injuries on King’s Birthday.
Before Round 14, most would have still pencilled Melbourne in for a win against North Melbourne this Saturday, but after the way the Roos put the Magpies to the sword, the equation becomes a little bit more complex.
The upside for the Demons? Six of their final 10 matches come at the MCG, and they only make three more trips outside Victoria — to Brisbane, Perth (to play Fremantle) and the Gold Coast.
The caveat? Seven of those 10 games are against top-10 teams, and their percentage is presently second-worst of the top 13.
It’s difficult imagining them winning any of those three road games, while Melbourne-based matchups with Essendon (MCG), GWS (MCG), the Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium), Port Adelaide (MCG) and Collingwood (MCG) are fraught with danger and doubt.
A 4-6 run home seems a realistic scenario, though a win or loss (or two) either way is certainly in the mix. Like the Suns, a 5-5 finish has to be the minimum outcome to give themselves a chance.
‘They lost this one in the coaches box’ | 02:53
HAWTHORN (12th, 7-7, 92.7%)
That Hawthorn is even a part of this conversation is a testament to its commendable in-season turnaround.
After starting the ‘24 campaign 0-5, the Hawks have won seven of their past nine games to well and truly insert themselves in finals contention.
Interestingly, Hawthorn only plays two more times at the MCG — against Collingwood in Round 19 and Carlton in Round 22 — with trips to Optus Stadium (Eagles), GMHBA Stadium, Adelaide Oval and Manuka Oval coming.
However, the Hawks have two more clashes scheduled at their second home in Launceston against Fremantle and North Melbourne, having won their first pair of 2024 matches there against St Kilda and GWS.
Apart from (maybe) their regular season finale against North, there’s nothing easy about this run home for the brown and gold.
A 5-4 finish is arguably their most realistic outcome, giving them an outside chance at an unexpected finals berth at 12-11.
BRISBANE LIONS (13th, 6-6-1, 115.8%)
Montagna, conversely to King, declared 13th-placed Brisbane his likeliest finals charger, with Chris Fagan’s Lions in possession of the league’s third-best percentage and one of the more favourable runs home of this crop.
Like the Suns and Demons, the Lions have played 13 games entering Round 15.
Two of the Lions’ next three fixtures (against Melbourne and Adelaide) come at The Gabba, with five in total across their 10 final games.
Brisbane lost each of its first three Gabba games this year but has won its past three.
“I think Brisbane will make (the finals) now,” Montagna told First Crack.
“I think they’re really on a roll, they’re fit and healthy, they get Will Ashcroft back.
“They’ve got their system (and) they’ve found their mojo. They’re too talented to have played the way they did in the first half (of the season). I think they finish in the bottom half of the eight.”
The Lions still have two trips to Melbourne to come — to play St Kilda at Marvel Stadium in Round 21 and Collingwood at the MCG in Round 23 — as well as scheduled sojourns to Perth in Round 18 (Eagles) and Gold Coast in Round 20.
A realistic 6-4 run home would have Brisbane sitting at 12-10-1 at the end of Round 24. That same win-loss-draw ratio was enough to land Sydney eighth position last season after 23 games.
If they can muster a 13th victory, and with that Round 9 draw against Adelaide in tow, that would surely be enough for a September return.
VULNERABLE IN THE EIGHT
The Dockers are teetering on the edge on 30 premiership points, and their efforts at Marvel Stadium on Saturday gave little confidence for their ability to retain a top-eight seed through the season’s final 10 weeks.
The positive for Longmuir’s brigade is it plays six of its last 10 games at Optus Stadium. The downside? Their remaining road trips are tough ones — the Swans in Sydney, the Hawks in Launceston, the Bombers at the MCG and the Giants in Sydney.
In seventh spot, Port Adelaide has mightily disappointed in the past fortnight and has a bundle of tough fixtures of its own to combat — Brisbane (Adelaide Oval; Round 15), Gold Coast (People First Stadium; Rd 18), Carlton (Marvel Stadium; Rd 20), Sydney (Adelaide Oval; Rd 21), Melbourne (MCG; Rd 22) and Fremantle (Optus Stadium; Rd 24) — as it sits precariously on 32 points.
Neck-and-neck with Port are Geelong and GWS, both also 8-5 and the next most in danger of falling. The Cats have lost four of their past five games and face a massive challenge in the form of Carlton this Friday night. The Giants, meanwhile, had lost three in four before a much-needed home triumph over the Power on Sunday.