Four Dark Horse Teams to Make the Playoffs in 2024

Correctly picking the 14 teams that will reach the NFL postseason each and every year is nearly impossible, as the turnover of teams from season-to-season is never correlated.

For many teams, the first goal of the season is winning their respective division, guaranteeing at least one home playoff game.

Last season, we saw six teams reach the playoffs that failed to do so in 2022, which included the:

There is a good chance that a number of the teams named above will fail to reach that threshold again in 2024, opening up the opportunity for several newcomers to join the fold.

Which teams that missed the playoffs in 2023 surprise the rest of the league and earn a playoff spot in 2024?

Let’s take a look and see who are the dark horse candidates who can make a postseason push this upcoming season.

1 Los Angeles Chargers

Led by Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers could push for a playoff spot in 2024.

The 2023 season was a disappointment for the Los Angeles Chargers, as the team was considered a threat to take down the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West.

However, things quickly turned for the worse with injuries derailing any chance of making the playoffs for a second consecutive season under former Head Coach Brandon Staley. Wide receiver Mike Williams suffered a season-ending ACL tear against the Minnesota Vikings early in the season before quarterback Justin Herbert broke a finger later in the season, affecting the team’s play-calling.

As the season continued to go downhill, Los Angeles fired Staley and shut down a number of key players, including Herbert, who opted for season-ending surgery on that finger.

The Chargers would finish with a lackluseter 5-12 record, despite having one of the most expensive defenses and high-end talent on the offensive side of the ball.

Monumental changes were necessary for a franchise that had underwhelmed with the amount of talent on both sides of the ball. And that’s exactly what the Chargers’ front office did this offseason.

After making the splash hire of former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 60-year-old coach cleaned house, including:

These moves left Herbert with virtually no weapons heading into the NFL Draft, as the team is entering a new phase with the 26-year-old quarterback signing a five-year, $262.5 million contract extension last offseason, which will not count toward the Chargers’ cap space until 2025.

So, you may be asking yourself, how come this guy has Los Angeles as a playoff contender in 2024? Here’s why: Harbaugh has won everywhere he has been, and he has walked in and done so right away.

Harbaugh has a reputation for building winners

Before he arrived as the San Francisco 49ers‘ head coach in 2011, the team went 6-10 the previous season, leaving a lot of doubt surrounding quarterback Alex Smith.

Harbaugh rejuvenated Smith’s career, while leading the 49ers to a 13-3 record and advancing to the NFC Championship game in his first season.

Harbaugh would follow that up by leading San Francisco to the Super Bowl with second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick taking over during the season after Smith sustained a concussion in the middle of the campaign.

The 49ers would fall short to the Baltimore Ravens 34-31, but it was another step closer to winning a championship.

The 2013 campaign was another successful season, as the 49ers finished with a 12-4 record, while reaching the NFC title game.

Reaching two conference championship games and a Super Bowl in the first three seasons at the helm is very impressive for someone who had never coached in the NFL beforehand.

The success of the Chargers may not meet those standards right away, but there is now hope and belief in an organization that has lacked commanding leadership in the locker room for quite some time now.

Harbaugh also has a clear pathway to victory, and that is physicality on both line-of-scrimmages and winning at the point of attack.

That was apparent with Los Angeles’ draft process, as the Chargers selected Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick, despite people calling for the team to take a receiver.

The team also signed former Ravens’ running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins in free agency, solidifying a rushing attack to support Herbert.

With Harbaugh leading this team, the expectations for Herbert have been elevated. Since the start of his career, Herbert has shown he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but many people doubt his ability to win in the biggest games.

He will have his chance to change that narrative, and although there are question marks about his receiving options – second-year wideout Quentin Johnston and rookie receiver Ladd McConkey – the fifth-year starter will be asked to do less with complimentary football in the rushing attack.

Expect the Chargers to make a push for a wildcard spot in 2024, and develop into a dangerous team in the AFC West.

2 Chicago Bears

Drafting quarterback Caleb Williams gives the Windy City some hope and expectations.

Although this could be considered an obvious choice for this discussion, the Chicago Bears are still a dark horse team to make the playoffs.

With a rookie quarterback leading the way, there are many people who will refrain from picking the Bears as a playoff team this upcoming season. Other than the fact that Caleb Williams will be a first-year starter in 2024, he is also widely thought of as the next superstar quarterback with an unattainable ceiling.

There will be inevitable bumps along the road, but the 22-year-old quarterback is more than capable of leading Chicago to a wildcard spot this season.

In addition to surrounding Williams with talent on the offensive side of the ball – D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, and Cole Kmet – the Bears have constructed a well-rounded defense that can take pressure off the offense with edge rusher Montez Sweat and cornerback Jaylon Johnson leading the way on that side of the ball.

In 2023, with Justin Fields as the quarterback, the Bears’ offense was pedestrian with limited weaponry and mediocre play-calling.

Both of those departments have been improved, with Williams inheriting the starting quarterback position and Shane Waldron taking over as the offensive coordinator.

If Chicago’s offense managed these numbers with less offensive talent, there is little reason to doubt that the Bears could be much more explosive and efficient with Williams under center.

While Chicago may not compete for the NFC North crown with the Lions and Packers, a wildcard spot is a reasonable expectation for the Bears in 2024.

3 Indianapolis Colts

With a hopefully healthy Anthony Richardson, the Colts could take the next step in 2024.

With quarterback Anthony Richardson missing the majority of the 2023 season, the Indianapolis Colts turned to Gardner Minshew.

The former Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback is physically limited, and despite that, the Colts went 9-8 with the chance of winning the AFC South entering the last week of the season against the Houston Texans.

The ramifications heading into the Week 18 matchup:

Winner clinches division, loser is eliminated from playoff contention.

Indianapolis ended up being the latter, falling to C.J. Stroud and Houston, as it was the moment the rookie quarterback proved he was a legit star quarterback (If anyone had any questions prior to that game).

Health is the biggest variable for the Colts’ 2024 outlook. If Richardson stays healthy throughout the course of the season, Indianapolis could win 10+ games and push Houston for the division title.

Adding Adonai Mitchell to a passing game that lacked that explosive, downfield element last season will be monumental for a quarterback continuing his development. Adding that to a strong running game with Jonathan Taylor and Richardson will create even lighter boxes, making it very difficult for defenses to account for all the weapons on the field, including receiver Michael Pittman Jr.

Taking that and looking at what the Colts’ offense accomplished in 2023 with Minshew under center, there are many reasons to have high expectations for Indianapolis this season.

If these numbers show anything, it’s the fact that, under Shane Steichen’s tutelage, Richardson could have this Colts’ offense ranked inside the top five in multiple areas.

Defensively, Indianapolis struggled through stretches – much of that due to the offense’s pace, giving the defensive personnel little breaks off the field – and even though the Colts’ offense will most likely continue that up-tempo style, the defense will be given a boost with the addition of pass rusher Laiatu Latu.

The Texans are the favorites to repeat as AFC South champions, but the Colts have a better chance than the Jaguars to dethrone Houston in 2024.

If Indianapolis fails to win the division, they still have a solid chance at the wildcard.

4 Seattle Seahawks

After clinching a playoff spot in 2022, the Seahawks regressed in 2023, missing the playoffs entirely.

Quarterback Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks regressed dramatically after shocking the league and reaching the playoffs in 2022.

In 2023, expectations were higher than a 9-8 record and missing out on postseason play. It also marked the end of Pete Carroll’s time as Seattle’s head coach.

The Seahawks hired former Baltimore Ravens‘ defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald as their new head coach this offseason.

That defensive pedigree being transferred over to this team is why the Seahawks can make a return to the playoffs in 2024.

It may be foolish to buy into Smith returning to his 2022 form, but the offense is loaded with talent, so that as long as the defense can hold up its end of the bargain, this could be a very dangerous team.

It’s not like MacDonald is lacking personnel when assembling his game plan each and every week.

Cornerback Devon Witherspoon is entering his second season in the league, showing that he can be an absolute playmaker and disruptor in the passing game, pass rusher Boye Mafe is also entering his sophomore season, while the interior defensive line will be masked by veteran Leonard Williams and incoming rookie Byron Murphy, who was the best defensive tackle entering the 2024 draft.

This defense has pieces to work with, and should take a significant step under MacDonald’s supervision.

As mentioned, the offense is well-equipped to rebound in 2024 with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett returning, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is expected to take a leap in his second year. The 22-year-old receiver was under-utilized in 2023 under former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, orchestrating mostly behind and near the line-of-scrimmage when he is a savant route-runner.

Not to mention, a strong rushing tandem in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, who could develop into a solid one-two punch.

Seattle hired former University of Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who led the Huskies to one of the best collegiate offenses in 2023. He should be able to get more out of the Seahawks’ offensive personnel.

Talent is not the question with Seattle entering the 2024 season.

The main question is: Can Smith return to a solid quarterback performance and play to his strengths?

If so, the Seahawks will be in business this upcoming season as a wildcard team.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise.

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