The federal seat of North Sydney is set to be scrapped under new draft boundaries proposed by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).
The AEC unveiled its proposal on Friday afternoon, following a lengthy consultation process including coordination with New South Wales’ surveyor-general.
NSW must lose one seat owing to slower population growth, and it had been widely speculated that the seat would be somewhere in Sydney’s north or east, where growth has been slower than in other parts of the state.
The seat of North Sydney was once a safe Liberal seat but was won in 2022 by independent Kylea Tink.
The areas that were part of North Sydney are proposed to be divided among the neighbouring seats of Bennelong (held by Labor), Bradfield (held by the Liberal Party) and Warringah (held by independent Zali Steggall).
There are also major changes to boundaries in southern NSW. The seat of Hume, held by Liberal shadow treasurer Angus Taylor, moves more firmly into the outskirts of Sydney and loses the regional centre of Goulburn.
Goulburn will move into the seat of Eden-Monaro, held by Labor’s Kristy McBain. Eden-Monaro will shed some of its voters into Riverina, held by former Nationals leader Michael McCormack.
Most seats in Sydney and some other regional seats also had minor boundary changes, with 12 per cent of voters in the state changing seats.
The seat of Cook, which until recently was held by former prime minister Scott Morrison, will now be named jointly after two people, Captain James Cook (as previously) and Australia’s sixth prime minister, Joseph Cook.
How political prospects will be affected
New boundaries can affect the political prospects of existing MPs even if their seats are not abolished.
According to projections by election analyst Ben Raue, the seat of Bennelong has “notionally” changed from a Labor seat to a Liberal seat, using 2022 voting patterns.
That seat, which Labor’s Jerome Laxale won in 2022 with a 1 per cent margin, has a tiny Liberal margin of 0.1 per cent under the new boundaries.
But Kos Samaras, director at polling group RedBridge, told the ABC Labor will likely gain ground in that seat because more young people would have enrolled since last time.
“It’s a real university electorate,” he said.
“New [electoral] enrolments would be worth at least 2 per cent for Labor.”
The other big change is to the seat of Bradfield, held by Liberal Paul Fletcher, which Mr Raue’s analysis suggests is now in striking distance for a teal independent.
Nicolette Boele, who ran as an independent in Bradfield in 2022, plans to do so again.
Paul Fletcher also indicated plans to run again in a statement acknowledging the draft boundaries, adding he would be “sad to say goodbye” to parts of his electorate that would be moved elsewhere.
Mr Samaras said the improved teal prospects in that seat were because it had picked up parts of North Sydney which had strong teal votes in 2022.
Elsewhere for the Liberals, the southern seats of Hughes and Banks would become more marginal under the changes (3.5 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively).
For Labor, the seat of Paterson in the Hunter would become more marginal (2.6 per cent) and the seats of Greenway and Barton, held by ministers Michelle Rowland and Linda Burney, would lose a chunk of their margins. But Labor would gain ground in the key outer suburban seat of Macarthur.
For teals, the seat of Warringah would lose a little of its margin, but the seat of Wentworth would become safer.
Mr Samaras said the AEC had been “quite balanced” in political party terms, consistent with its usual approach.
“A teal seat gets abolished, but then Bradfield becomes a much easier seat for the teals to win … [Labor’s] Bennelong becomes more marginal, but [the Liberals’] Bradfield hits the deck.”
Tink not definitive on future
In a statement, Kylea Tink said she was “obviously disappointed … but this has never been about me”.
“I will continue to stand up for and fight for the people of North Sydney … I remain committed to the independent movement and will continue to support it wherever and whenever I can,” she said.
“This is a draft proposal and there is now a further process to go through. I will have more to say on this in due course.”
At a press conference, Ms Tink was asked repeatedly whether she planned to run for the neighbouring seat of Bradfield and did not give a definitive answer.
“I don’t know … this is new news,” she said.
“It has been and continues to be one of the greatest privileges of my life to serve my community in this way…
“It’s very difficult for any person to predict where they may be in 12 months time… But I have absolutely loved every minute in this role.”
Ms Tink said she would be submitting feedback on the draft calling for North Sydney to be retained.
In a statement, Nicolette Boele said she and her team would “work through all the implications and possible concerns,” but “in the meantime… will continue to campaign [in Bradfield].”
How the process works
The proposal is a draft, which will be finalised in October. Parties, candidates and members of the public will have an opportunity to provide comment.
Last month, the AEC announced proposals for the states of Victoria and Western Australia.
Those proposals would see Victoria lose the seat of Higgins in Melbourne’s inner south-east, and WA gain a new seat called Bullwinkel on the northern outskirts of Perth.
How the decision was made
The redistribution committee, comprising AEC officials and the NSW surveyor-general and auditor-general, was guided by changing patterns of population and the principle that each electorate should have a broadly comparable number of voters.
Two dozen seats in NSW were identified as having too few voters, most but not all of them in inner-city Sydney.
Five were investigated for possible abolition: North Sydney and its neighbour Warringah, the south suburban seats of Werriwa and Banks, and the seat of Cunningham, which includes Wollongong.
But the committee decided the outer metropolitan and regional seats would necessitate too many complicated changes to other boundaries.
It unanimously chose North Sydney. That will see the retiring of an electorate name which has been used since federation, and which was notably held by former treasurer Joe Hockey.
Most seats in Sydney had at least some boundary changes, while regional seats outside the south of the state tended to stay the same.
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