“I think what I experienced today was probably Novak very close to his best,” de Minaur said that night.
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“I think what makes Novak, Novak, at the end of the day, is how solid he is, his movement, the depth he’s able to keep. It just felt like constant pressure today. Every service game I had, I wasn’t getting free points. It felt like an uphill battle from the start.”
They met again almost 12 months later in this year’s ATP Cup quarter-finals in Perth.
De Minaur, coming off a promising season when he halved his ranking from 24 to 12, exacted revenge on Djokovic, ending his 43-match winning streak in Australia in a stunning 6-4, 6-4 result.
This time, the Sydneysider did not face a break point, but converted two of five himself. The most notable statistics were de Minaur’s serving success: a 69 per cent first-serve percentage, and he won 33 of those 34 points.
Djokovic went into the contest with a wrist issue and said it had impacted him against de Minaur, who described the victory as “extremely special” and “surreal”.
The third match-up was in the Monte-Carlo Masters quarter-finals on clay three months ago, ending in a 7-5, 6-4 victory for Djokovic. De Minaur had more winners (17-12) and unforced errors (26-18), while Djokovic broke the Australian’s serve five times and conceded three breaks himself.
“It was tough for both of us. He is one of the quickest players on tour,” Djokovic said. “He gets a lot of balls back that normally 99 per cent of other players don’t.”
What they are doing well
The numbers from this year’s Wimbledon suggest Djokovic will be very tough to beat.
The 37-year-old is landing almost 67 per cent of his first serves and winning 83 per cent of those points, both of which are elite numbers if extrapolated across this year. For context, Brit Jack Draper boasts the best first-serve win percentage for the season at 78.9 per cent.
Novak Djokovic’s numbers at Wimbledon this year make for impressive reading.Credit: AP
De Minaur has improved as a server, but his statistics pale in comparison this fortnight. His first-serve percentage is just 53 per cent, and he is winning 75 per cent of those points.
They are both ranked in the top 10 this year for second-serve win percentage, with Djokovic No.1 and de Minaur No.7.
Djokovic is winning almost 63 per cent of his second-serve points for the tournament – an outrageous number, up from 57.5 per cent for the rest of 2024 – while de Minaur’s figure is almost 52 per cent, which is down from 56 per cent on the year.
The former world No.1 is also outperforming de Minaur at the net, winning 78.1 per cent of points compared to 66.7 per cent.
The rivals’ respective returning statistics are far closer, and in the Australian’s favour. They are considered the best two returners on the tour.
De Minaur is winning an impressive 47.5 per cent of return points at Wimbledon (up from 43 per cent this year), which is ahead of Djokovic’s 39 per cent (down from 42 per cent).
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He is also converting more of his break point chances – 38.5 per cent to 36.4 per cent – but both players are well down on their season standard of 44 and 46 per cent, respectively.
“I think the return is something that’s always come quite natural to me,” de Minaur said.
“I don’t know whether it’s got to do with the mentality of me trying to win every single point. I’ve always felt that I’m one of those players that creates a lot of pressure for my opponents when they’re serving.
“Even if I’m not breaking, I’m creating opportunities … I think over especially a [best-of] five-set match, that’s when you start to see the cracks.”
How Demon can beat Novak
The two stars’ head-to-head matches reveal where de Minaur needs to perform well, and better than he has this Wimbledon, if he is to cause an upset and reach his first major semi-final.
He must serve well. Asked by this masthead after the first round what his ideal first-serve percentage would be, de Minaur answered he would like to be “closer to the 60 per cent mark”.
That is significantly above his season and Wimbledon numbers, but in line with his serving performance in his ATP Cup defeat of Djokovic.
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De Minaur is doing a much-improved job of winning more cheap points on his serve than he used to, but his Australian Open demolition at Djokovic’s hands last year is a warning sign.
He must absorb significant pressure and avoid repeated extended rallies on his service games, which was part of his downfall in the 2023 meeting.
The non-negotiable is de Minaur must find a way to challenge Djokovic on the 24-time grand slam champion’s own serve, which was a pillar of his career-best Roland-Garros run despite facing the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Alex Zverev.
The numbers tell us that no one’s win percentage on their serve is as good as usual when they come up against de Minaur, even when they beat him.
Djokovic’s ex-coach, Australian Craig O’Shannessy, who also worked with Alexei Popyrin and Jan-Lennard Struff, wrote an excellent analysis for this masthead on de Minaur’s improved forehand, which has traditionally been a weakness.
The super Serb will undoubtedly target that wing, so de Minaur will have to hold up on that side and keep him away from the net as much as possible while staying aggressive.
What they said
Alex de Minaur: “I don’t think you need to talk too much about Novak here at Wimbledon. He’s obviously achieved greatness many, many years, so he’s going to be a tough battle. But [these are] the types of battles that I want to be playing [to] show what I can do.
“I played Novak once in a slam. It’s fair to say it was quite a challenge. I’m looking forward to this match-up next time around. I think I’m a different player. I’m definitely looking forward to the challenge.”
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Novak Djokovic: “He probably is the quickest mover we have on the tour. He has improved so much in the last year-and-a-half. I played him in the fourth round of Australian Open last year, [and] I played a terrific match. But from that match until today, watching his progress, seeing him get into the top 10, is not a surprise.
“He’s always had that speed. He’s always had that incredible defence and really crafty hands on all the surfaces, particularly the quicker ones … I think his serve became a weapon. That maybe wasn’t the case before. He takes the ball so early, [and] he’s not afraid to come to the net. He’s a great all-around player.”
Marc McGowan is at Wimbledon with the support of Tennis Australia.
Watch Wimbledon 2024 from July 1 live and exclusively free on Nine and 9Now with every match streaming ad-free, live and on demand with centre court in 4K on Stan Sport.
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