Josh Hazlewood has confessed it would be in Australia’s “best interest” to manipulate the result of this weekend’s T20 World Cup match against Scotland to knock England out of the tournament.
England, who suffered a 36-run loss to Australia last week, needs to defeat Oman and Namibia and finish the group stage with a higher net run rate than Scotland to qualify for the Super Eights and avoid elimination.
The reigning champions are therefore relying on their two biggest rivals, Australia and Scotland, for any chance of defending the title they won in 2022.
Australia has an opportunity to exploit a flaw in the T20 World Cup point system, defeating Scotland by a narrow margin to ensure their opponent’s net run rate remains above England.
Each nation’s net run rate does not carry through the Super Eight stage of the tournament, meaning there is no incentive for Australia to push for a heavy victory over Scotland.
“If you got through undefeated and have a good net run rate, it doesn’t count for much,” Hazlewood told reporters during Wednesday’s post-match press conference in Antigua.
“It’s a strange one.”
England’s final group-stage game against Namibia finishes around four hours before Australia clashes with Scotland, meaning Mitchell Marsh’s men will have time to calculate the exact margin of victory required for England to be knocked out.
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Hazlewood conceded that Australia’s chances of winning the T20 World Cup would improve if England was eliminated during the group stage.
“In this tournament, you potentially come up against England at some stage again and they’re probably one of the top few teams on their day,” Hazlewood continued.
“We’ve had some real struggles against them in T20 cricket. So if we can get them out of the tournament, that’s in our best interest as well as probably everyone else.
“It’ll be interesting to see. (We’ve) never really been in this position before as a team, I don’t think.
“Whether we have discussions or not, or we just try and play again the way we played tonight, that’ll be up to people, not me.”
Meanwhile, England and Pakistan will also be praying the rain holds off to keep their T20 World Cup campaigns alive.
Both nations, the finalists from the previous edition of the tournament, got their campaigns off to slow starts, with Pakistan suffering a shock loss to the United States of America in Dallas.
England and Pakistan need to win all of their remaining group-stage matches for any chance of qualifying for the Super Eights, but the forecasts in Florida and Antigua are less than promising, with a washout all that’s needed to knock them out of the tournament.
GROUP A
India, United States of America, Pakistan, Canada, Ireland
The winner of Thursday morning’s clash between India and the United States of America will automatically qualify for the Super Eights, while there’s an intriguing battle for the other slot.
It is still mathematically possible for any nation in Group A to qualify, with host nation the USA needing just one win from their remaining matches against India or Canada.
But for Pakistan, the situation is slightly more complicated — Babar Azam’s men need to defeat Ireland and boost their net run rate above the USA, but even then they’re relying on other results and weather.
Meanwhile, it would take a miracle for either Canada or Ireland to finish in the top two.
Ladder
1. India — 4 points (+1.455)
2. USA — 4 points (+0.626)
3. Pakistan — 2 points (+0.191)
4. Canada — 2 points (-0.493)
5. Ireland — 0 points (-1.712)
Remaining matches
Thursday, June 13 — USA vs India
Saturday, June 15 — USA vs Ireland
Sunday, June 16 — India vs Canada
Monday, June 17 — Pakistan vs Ireland
GROUP B
Australia, Scotland, Namibia, England, Oman
Australia has already qualified for the Super Eights, while Namibia and Oman have been eliminated, creating a two-horse race between England and Scotland for the vacant slot.
As explained above, England faces plenty of hurdles to keep its T20 World Cup campaign alive, while Scotland can make the net run rate equation obsolete by defeating Australia on Sunday.
Expect to see plenty of calculators in the dugout this weekend.
Ladder
1. Australia (Q) — 6 points (+3.580)
2. Scotland — 5 points (+2.164)
3. Namibia (E) — 2 points (-2.098)
4. England — 1 point (-1.800)
5. Oman (E) — 0 points (-1.613)
Remaining matches
Friday, June 14 — England vs Oman
Sunday, June 16 — Namibia vs England
Sunday, June 16 — Australia vs Scotland
GROUP C
Afghanistan, West Indies, Uganda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand
Afghanistan and the West Indies are off to a flying start and loom as the favourites to progress from Group C.
Courtesy of their superb net run rates, Afghanistan and the West Indies realistically need one victory from their remaining two matches to qualify for the next stage of the tournament.
However, New Zealand poses a massive threat for the West Indies, with the host nation at risk of missing the Super Eights if they lose Thursday morning’s clash against the Black Caps by a heavy margin.
Kane Williamson’s men need to win each of their three remaining group-stage matches and pray that Afghanistan topples the West Indies next Tuesday, otherwise they face an early exit from the tournament.
Ladder
1. Afghanistan — 4 points (+5.225)
2. West Indies — 4 points (+3.574)
3. Uganda — 2 points (-4.217)
4. Papua New Guinea — 0 points (-0.434)
5. New Zealand — 0 points (-4.200)
Remaining matches
Thursday, June 13th — West Indies vs New Zealand
Friday, June 14th — Afghanistan vs Papua New Guinea
Saturday, June 15th — New Zealand vs Uganda
Tuesday, June 18th — New Zealand vs Papua New Guinea
Tuesday, June 18th — West Indies vs Afghanistan
GROUP D
South Africa, Bangladesh, Netherlands, Nepal, Sri Lanka
South Africa was the first nation to qualify for the Super Eights, winning their first three group-stage matches despite some nervy moments with the bat.
Barring a miracle from Nepal, the winner of Friday morning’s clash between Bangladesh and the Netherlands would be the most likely nation to join the Proteas in the Super Eights, but the Dutch could trip at the final hurdle if they lose to Sri Lanka on Monday.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s T20 World Cup dream is all but over after Wednesday’s match against Nepal in Florida was abandoned due to weather.
Ladder
1. South Africa (Q) — 6 points (+0.603)
2. Bangladesh — 2 points (+0.075)
3. Netherlands — 2 points (+0.024)
4. Nepal — 1 point (-0.539)
5. Sri Lanka — 1 point (-0.777)
Remaining matches
Friday, June 14th — Bangladesh vs Netherlands
Saturday, June 15th — South Africa vs Nepal
Monday, June 17th — Bangladesh vs Nepal
Monday, June 17th — Sri Lanka vs Netherlands