The annual rate of inflation increased a bit more in April to 3.6 per cent.
The monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator rose by 0.1 percentage points last month, up from 3.5 per cent in March.
It means the annual rate of inflation has increased for the second month in a row, up from 3.4 per cent in February.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), an underlying measure of inflation — called “trimmed mean” inflation — also picked up again in April, from 4 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
“Today’s data will be ringing alarm bells down at the RBA,” Business Council of Australia chief economist Stephen Walters said.
“This is a terrible start to inflation for the June quarter. Inflation is accelerating on all main measures, not receding as had been hoped, thanks mainly to sticky services prices.
“Further interest rate hikes are unlikely but, after today’s upside inflation surprise, no longer can be ruled out,” Mr Walters said.
The monthly CPI indicator is not as comprehensive as the ABS’s quarterly inflation data because it only updates prices for between 62 per cent and 73 per cent of the consumer price index basket every month, depending on the month.
However, economists say it still provides a reasonable picture of how prices are travelling month to month and the pick-up in inflation last month will put even more pressure on the Reserve Bank.
The April data included up-to-date price information for 62 per cent of the weight of the quarterly CPI.
See the image from the ABS below.
According to the ABS’s methodology, April is categorised as “Month 1.”
Anneke Thompson, the chief economist at CreditorWatch, said interest rates will probably be stuck at peak levels for longer than expected now.
“The fight against inflation is still far from over, with the last stubborn categories — housing, fuel, electricity, health, education and financial and insurance services — proving difficult to get under pricing control,” she said.
“Record high population growth is likely a contributing factor here, and the hope from here is that moderating incoming overseas migration helps reduce price increases on these essential services.”
Earlier this month, when March quarter inflation figures were higher than expected, the chief economic adviser at Judo Bank, Warren Hogan, warned the RBA would have to hike interest rates three more times this year as a consequence.
Two weeks later, the national unemployment rate picked up from 3.9 per cent to 4.1 per cent and very weak retail trade was recorded for April.
But on Wednesday, Mr Hogan said the monthly inflation update for April was not good news.
He said it showed that one of the key sources of downward pressure on prices in the past year — goods price inflation — had started to reverse.
He said with goods price inflation rising again, combined with higher and stickier services inflation, the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched was increasing.
He told the ABC there was a “very good chance” we would see a rate hike from the Reserve Bank in June.
“It does not appear that the RBA can be confident that they will restore price stability with a 4.35 per cent cash rate,” Mr Hogan later wrote on social media.
“Much better to have a further small increase in rates in 2024 than risk allowing inflation to become entrenched in our economy.
“If inflation becomes stuck history shows what will happen — much higher rates at some stage in the next few years and a disruptive recession to follow.
“My assessment is that the best way to avoid a damaging recession is a further modest tightening of monetary policy over the months ahead.”
However, Saul Eslake from Corinna Economic Advisory said even though the April inflation data was “more disappointing news”, he did not think the RBA would raise rates in response.
“Governor Michele Bullock has said that the path to getting inflation back to its target range will be ‘bumpy’, and today’s data is a ‘bump’,” Mr Eslake wrote.
“But it should further dampen the expectations which others still hold that it could cut rates this year.
“My view remains, as it has since November last year, that the RBA won’t start cutting rates till February next year at the earliest.”
The April data show electricity prices rose 4.2 per cent in the last 12 months, but they would have been much higher without government rebates.
The ABS says the introduction of the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates from July 2023 had mostly offset electricity price rises from annual price reviews in July 2023 due to higher wholesale prices.
“Excluding the rebates, electricity prices would have risen 13.9 per cent in the 12 months to April 2024,” Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, said.
In a statement quickly following the release of the data, Treasurer Jim Chalmers reminded Australians that inflation was still trending downwards over a longer time-frame.
“As we’ve said many times the monthly inflation indicator can be volatile and is less reliable than the quarterly measure because it doesn’t compare the same goods and services month to month,” Dr Chalmers said.
“The quarterly measure shows the direction of travel is clear with annual inflation having almost halved since the Albanese Labor Government came to office.
“The ABS confirmed very clearly again today that inflation would be higher were it not for our cost-of-living policies,” he said.
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