The stage is set for second-year Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid to become one of the NFL’s premier players at his position during the 2024 season.
Then again, league brass are already considering the former University of Utah star one of the best at the position, according to an ESPN article released Friday.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler rated Kincaid the eighth-best tight end in the league, making those rankings based on intelligence he received from NFL executives, coaches and scouts.
The top five tight ends on ESPN’s rankings shouldn’t be a surprise — Kansas City’s Travis Kelce is No. 1, followed by San Francisco’s George Kittle at No. 2, Baltimore’s Mark Andrews at No. 3, Detroit’s Sam LaPorta (another second-year pro) at No. 4 and Minnesota’s T.J. Hockenson at No. 5.
Kincaid, though, is ranked just behind that group in another contingent of solid tight ends that includes Cleveland’s David Njoku at No. 6, Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert one spot ahead of Kincaid at No. 7, Jacksonville’s Evan Engram at No. 9 and Houston’s Dalton Schultz, a Bingham High product, at No. 10.
With the Bills losing wide receivers Stefon Diggs (via trade) and Gabe Davis (free agency) this offseason, Kincaid is one of the leading pass-catchers returning to Buffalo.
The question marks surrounding the Bills’ wide receiving group are one of the most intriguing storylines league-wide, and that could allow Kincaid to entrench himself even further as a go-to skill player in Buffalo’s offense.
What did ESPN say about Dalton Kincaid’s tight end ranking?
Fowler wrote that the 24-year-old Kincaid drew comparisons to Kelce when he entered the league last year as the No. 25 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft.
“He’s super natural as a mover, super instinctive, great hands,” a high-ranking NFL personnel man told Fowler. “Not sure he’s as explosive after the catch as some of the others.”
Fowler also noted that Kincaid “ranked atop this group in average yards from the nearest defender at pass arrival when targeted” and that his 4.71-second 40-yard is adequate for a tight end, while “multiple evaluators believe he plays faster than that.”
What stats did Dalton Kincaid put up during his rookie season?
Kincaid ended the 2023 regular season with 73 receptions for 673 yards and two touchdowns. After a bit of a slow start to the year and missing the team’s Week 6 game against the New York Giants with a concussion, Kincaid had four or more receptions in nine of the Bills’ final 11 regular-season games, catching 56 passes for 555 yards and two touchdowns in those 11 games.
During the postseason, Kincaid caught eight passes for 104 yards and a touchdown over two games.
His 80.2% catch rate on 91 targets during the regular season was 20th in the league, per StatMuse, and fourth among tight ends, though it was second among tight ends with 50 or more receptions.
Kincaid’s receiving yards ranked 10th among tight ends last season, per StatMuse, and amongst that group, his total receptions were seventh, his number of targets were eighth, his receiving yards per game (42.1) were 14th and his average yards per catch (9.2) were 22nd.
What have others said about where Dalton Kincaid ranks among NFL tight ends?
A couple other media outlets weren’t quite as bullish about Kincaid’s ranking among tight ends heading into 2024, but they emphasized his clear upward trajectory.
Pro Football Focus’ John Kosko ranked Kincaid 13th at the position.
“Kincaid made teammate Dawson Knox an afterthought, as he racked up 777 yards and averaged 1.51 yards per route run on 101 targets,” Kosko wrote. “Kincaid had a great rookie season that was somewhat overlooked because of LaPorta’s phenomenal campaign.”
Pro Football Network’s Dakota Randall has Kincaid 18th among NFL tight ends, while again drawing the comparison between Kincaid and Kelce.
“He might rank top 10 next year, but not because he’s a great all-around tight end. Kincaid is firmly in the Kelce mold: receiver first, tight end second,” Randall wrote.
“Nevertheless, he’s a young, talented player who racked up 673 yards and two TDs in his first season. The arrow is pointing up.”
RotoBaller’s Mike Fanelli had the most bold take on Kincaid, listing him as the No. 3 ranked tight end in the NFL heading into 2024.
“The Bills surprised everyone when they traded up during the 2023 NFL Draft to select Kincaid. While he had only two receiving touchdowns as a rookie, the former Utah star is a popular sophomore-year breakout candidate,” Fanelli wrote.
“Buffalo lost its top-2 wide receivers this offseason, with Stefon Diggs joining the Houston Texans and Gabe Davis signing with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kincaid could rank in the top 10 in receptions this upcoming season.”
NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks agreed, listing Kincaid as one of the breakout candidates to watch this year.
“With Buffalo poised to routinely utilize ‘12′ personnel, Kincaid could become a household name as a dominant pass catcher over the middle. Although the second-year pro will share the marquee with fellow tight end Dawson Knox, the 6-foot-4, 240-pounder should thrive as Josh Allen attacks defenses with an inside-out approach that puts the Bills’ TEs in prominent roles,” Brooks wrote.
“Kincaid took a little bit to get his footing as a rookie, but still finished the season with solid numbers: 73 catches for 673 yards and two scores. And I expect a big jump in production this fall. In fact, I won’t be shocked if he ends up leading all tight ends in receptions and yards in 2024.”