ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas takes at shot at some NBA draft Q&A with Steve Serby.
Q: The Knicks are picking at Nos. 24 and 25. Who might make sense for them?
A: At that point, who knows? Maybe you’ll have big guys available — whether it’s Yves Missi from Baylor or Kel’el Ware of Indiana — that’s a possibility. You could also have guys like Baylor Scheierman from Creighton or [Tyler] Kolek from Marquette. There are a bunch of guys that could very well be there. An interesting prospect that isn’t an offensive player, but Ryan Dunn of Virginia, he may be the best overall defender in the draft, but he’s not there offensively. He’s just long and athletic and really impactful on the defensive end and can really run.
Q: What did you think of Jalen Brunson coming out of Villanova in 2018?
A: You chronicled all the positives that he’s shown in the NBA, but I don’t think anybody, including the NBA, projected him to be an All-NBA player at this point in his career. I think I even heard Jay Wright recently say that he didn’t see this coming. You thought, “Smaller guard, is he gonna be able to do the same things in the NBA that he was able to do in college?” You know, the backdowns, and playing off two feet, all that stuff. And the answer is: Not only can he do it, he’s been a dominant performer in the league doing that. And same thing with Tyrese Haliburton. Like, I had Haliburton highly ranked the year he came out, I had him ranked No. 4. Look what he’s become. So there may be a couple of players that wind up doing the same thing from similar draft-pick positions in this draft. We like to think we know, but the truth is, we don’t. You’re just projecting, and you have certain beliefs based upon what they’ve accomplished and what their measurables are and things like that. But nobody truly knows.
Q: Is there somebody who could or should be a surprise lottery pick?
A: I don’t know about surprise. There are a couple of players like Ron Holland, who played in the G League last year, has the talent to be taken in the top five. Whether he will or not, we’ll see. He can certainly drop down into the late lottery, too. But guys like Devin Carter from Providence, even though he’s an older player, in this year’s draft, he’s a guy you’re saying, “Hey man, he can impact winning.” He’s long-armed, he rebounds at a high edge for a guard, and he’s really, really good defensively, and he’s just a high-energy, high-impact player. You’re not necessarily taking him to be an All-NBA selection, but he can help a team right away. … Stephon Castle of UConn. … [He has] everything you want except for he hasn’t figured out the perimeter shooting piece yet. I think he can change a few things in his mechanics and become more consistent with his mechanics, and I think he can improve greatly there. You’re not saying he’s gonna win the NBA 3-point contest anytime soon, but he becomes a consistent perimeter shooter, he’s gonna be a really, really good player in the NBA.
Q: The other UConn guys: Donovan Clingan.
A: Clingan is an outstanding defender, so he can block shots, he rebounds at a high rate, tough and competitive, physical, and I think he’s gonna improve in all those areas. His mobility laterally is a question mark, but he can get up and down through floor, he can run, and he does a really good job on the offensive end as far as he’s a good passer, he sets good screens and can roll out of it. He’s just not right now a shooting big man. He shoots under 60 percent from the foul line, and he’s not the type that’s gonna knock down 3s right now. But he shoots a pretty good ball, and so I think he can get a lot better there. When he was healthy, he was a dominant presence, especially on the defensive end, so he can help anchor a defense as a big guy for a long time.
Q: Tristen Newton?
A: I would think he’ll be a second-round pick, but he may very well be better off going undrafted where he can select where he goes. He’s just a really good all-around player. Big guard, can handle it, very good passer, can be physical so he can absorb a bump, and he can shoot a little bit. But just sort of a winner. I like him. Going undrafted may not be a fun night on that Thursday, but his phone’s gonna be ringing right away, and he’ll be able to choose where he goes.
Q: Cam Spencer?
A: He can really shoot it. Tough kid, can move without the ball. I don’t know that he’ll be drafted, but similar to Newton, he’ll be able to pick where he goes. But the shooting order is what makes him the most valuable.
Q: How about Bronny James?
A: I think he’ll probably be a second-round pick. He’s an unusual prospect in that not many guys that average four, five points a game as a freshman have 2 million social media followers. He’s somebody we talked about that, if his name had been Bronny Smith or Bronny Jones, we probably wouldn’t have talked about him that much, quite frankly. But very good athlete, and has a really good feel for the game. A little bit hard to evaluate because he didn’t have a compete season, he had that heart episode that really set him back. Without that, could he have performed at a higher level? I’m sure he could have. He’s not a big guard, he’s only about 6-1 or 6-2. But he does have long arms, and he defends well. I think he can play in the NBA.
Q: The guys projected at the top of the draft: Alex Sarr.
A: Sarr is 7-foot, long wingspan, more of a defensive presence, a shotblocker, shot-changer, rebounder. He’s played in different leagues throughout his time. He’s not a crazy physical player, but he’s got mobility and athletic tools. He’s a good transition finisher. He can step away and shoot the ball. He’s not a consistent 3-point shooter, but he can make one, and I think he can improve in that area. There’s a lot to like there, and he’s just 19 years old.
Q: Zaccharie Risacher?
A: He’s a 6-8 kid that can shoot it. He’s got good ball skills. He’s a confident shooter that does a really good job with the ball, he doesn’t turn it over much. Last year, he won that Eurocup Rising Star award. [Kristaps] Porzingis won that, the kid Jonas Valanciunas won it, so that’s an indicator. [Risacher is] not a superior athlete in the NBA, but he’s athletic. He’s talented and versatile, and I think he can be a good defender. He’s got that sort of ability level. So I can see why people really like him.
Q: Reed Sheppard?
A: Best shooter in the draft. Shot 50-50-almost 90 [ percent, from the field, 3-point range and free-throw line, respectively] with a pretty high usage rate. Really good feel for the game, good passer, good in pick-and-roll situations. And he’s an impactful defender. He gambles, but gets a lot of steals, and for a guard blocked quite a few shots. He’s not got a lot of size or length, but the shooting piece that he brings is really valuable, and he’s an underrated athlete. He did really well in the standing vertical and the max vertical at the combine. He’s a sneaky good athlete. But the fact that he shoots it so well and so consistently well is really attractive.
Q: Zach Edey may not be a lottery pick. Why is that?
A: I don’t know that he will or won’t be. I think it’s primarily because the NBA game is different now than it was 10 years ago. You don’t see as many low-post big guys, it’s more of a stretch game, so big guys are expected to operate on the perimeter a little bit more. So the more valuable big guys are the ones that can not only block shots and rebound and run the floor, but can play pick-and-pop and can knock down a 3 and be a threat where they draw the opposing big guy away from the basket. One thing about Edey, at 7-4, he’s gonna impact the game when he’s in there. Doesn’t necessarily mean he’s gonna be a starter, but you can put him in the game and he can impact the game right away. He’s a dominant low-post presence, and has improved every single year that he has played. He averaged 25 points a game this last year, and he saw every defense designed to stop him and still was able to operate at a high level and take his team to the NCAA championship game. I like him a lot. Maybe 15 years ago, he might have been the No. 1-overall pick.
Q: Dalton Knecht?
A: He can really shoot it. He’s big and strong. He’s not a great defender, although I think he’s capable of being a better defender than he is. But he’s 23 years old. I think you look back over the history of the draft, how do 23-year-old prospects do? He’s kind of the Roy Hobbs of college basketball. He kind of came out of nowhere this last year, transferred from Northern Colorado to Tennessee, and right away he was an impact player, you couldn’t take your eyes off him. And throughout the course of the year, every defense he played against in the SEC was geared to stop him. Teams had Knecht Rules, almost like the Jordan Rules, and still he was putting numbers up. You could see him going in the top 10, but I think he’ll be a lottery selection.
Q: Cody Williams?
A: Williams is interesting. He’s very long and he’s a good athlete. He has really good ball skills, so his potential’s really enticing. He doesn’t rebound at a high level, which at his size and length is a little bit curious. But very talented, and a lot of what they like to call upside potential.
Q: Harrison Ingram?
A: Probably a second-round pick. He started at Stanford and I thought really improved this last year. He’s a high-level defensive rebounder. Really gets to the glass. He can back you down, and he can shoot it from 3. A good complementary piece for an NBA team because of his ability to shoot the ball, his ability to rebound, got a really strong frame. I like him a lot.
Q: Do you like Kyle Filipowski?
A: I do. He’ll be taken I think in the top 20 somewhere because of his size, his ability to stretch the floor, he can knock a 3 down, he can shot-fake and drive a close out, and he’s very competitive. Solid rebounder and solid defensively. He’s not like a crazy great athlete, but he’s got athleticism. He’s really a competitive big guy.
Q: When you scan these mock drafts, is there a player you really like that you’re surprised is not going higher?
A: I had Kyshawn George of Miami rated pretty high. As you get closer to the draft, this always happens, people say moving up draft boards and all that. I don’t know how true all these things are, but he’s really an interesting prospect. When I first saw him at Miami in practice, I thought he looked exactly like Anthony Black from Arkansas. Good shooter, good feel. Most of what he does is from the 3-point line and was able to really help Miami space the floor. Went from basically nowhere to now a lottery pick, probably. I think his future’s really enticing, what he can be.
Q: Has the portal changed the readiness of these college players?
A: I don’t know it’s changed their readiness. If Dalton Knecht had stayed at Northern Colorado, nobody would have heard of him. It’s not to say that the NBA wouldn’t have found him, but my guess is he wouldn’t have been as highly thought of playing at Northern Colorado than he wound up being playing and doing what he did at Tennessee. I think the portal’s helped some players that played maybe at the mid-major level or so transfer up and really be evaluated for what they are without guesswork. I tend to think that’s a good thing, that’s a good part of the portal — that you can get evaluated a certain way out of high school, it’s not like you feel like you’re stuck there, and you don’t have to sit out a year in order to show what you’re capable of. There are certainly problems with the portal. They can regulate it better.
Q: What is the overall talent level of this year’s draft class?
A: I think it’s a good depth of talent throughout the draft, it’s just different at the top. I think it’s fair to say that there’s not a player in this year’s draft that I see that would have been taken in the top three, maybe four last year, or maybe even next year. But that’s just an issue of strength at the top. Throughout the rest of the draft, there’s some really good players where if a player went fifth last year you’d be talking about how good the guy is. This year you’re going, “Doesn’t seem like a No. 1 pick,” or “doesn’t seem like a No. 2 pick,” or something like that, and I get that. I think it’s fair for people to compare drafts and say, “Well, this draft is not as good as last year’s,” or whatever, and maybe it’s not as powerful at the top as what we’re gonna have next year — that’s all true, I think. I’ve said before that if Jalen Brunson were coming out of Villanova, and Tyrese Haliburton were coming out of Iowa State this year and in this draft, we’d probably still say the same things about the draft.
Q: What is the best draft you recall?
A: It might be the first one I did, which was 2003 that had LeBron [James], Carmelo, Dwyane Wade. That was ridiculous. And we’ve had some really talented ones since then, but maybe it’s because it was my first, but I can’t imagine a more interesting first one. I don’t remember there being much more excitement than there was around that first one that we did in 2003. It was really incredible.
Q: Thoughts on J.J. Redick as Lakers coach?
A: I’m really excited for him. I grew up in Los Angeles and grew up a huge Laker fan. It’s fantastic for him, and I think he’ll do a great job. It’s always kind of made me smile a little bit that people on our job that have no experience in the NBA will criticize J.J. for taking a head coaching job when he’s got no head coaching experience. But it’s worked out in the past for guys like Steve Kerr, Jason Kidd, Mark Jackson. [Redick] spent 15 years in the league as a player, and he’s got a great mind for basketball, and he’s a great communicator. And he knows what it’s like to be in a locker room and knows all the players. He played against the overwhelming majority of ’em, they’re still in the league, or at least most of ’em. So I don’t have any doubt he’ll do well.
Q: How would Danny Hurley had done if he had decided to leave UConn?
A: I think he would have done great. Great coaching doesn’t know a level. Most coaches that have coached in the NBA in the past started out in college. There became this narrative at some point that college coaches couldn’t make it in the NBA. That was because they always got the worst jobs. You can look at the NBA and see coaches that have been miserable failures and then failures that have nothing but NBA experience. I don’t think it works that way, and I think we’ve seen over the last decade or so coaches that spent a lot of time in college who’ve gone into the NBA and done really well. Brad Stevens did really well as a coach with the Celtics and then has been extraordinary as a front-office person. And Billy Donovan, there’s been a bunch of college guys. But years ago they never got a good job. They were always taking over a franchise that’s down at the bottom, and it takes a little bit of time to turn those things around. It’s not just the coach, it’s an entire franchise effort.
Q: So you have no doubt that your Duke coach, Mike Krzyzewski, could have mastered the NBA?
A: I don’t doubt that, but he chose not to do it. But yeah, he figured out the Olympics, that doesn’t seem to be a big deal for him, and I don’t have any doubt that he would have figured it out and done really well. Similar to if an NBA coach goes to the college ranks. It’s not a game you can’t figure out, it’s just different. Mike Woodson has done it at Indiana. It’s not that big of a deal.
Q: Do smart NBA offices pick your brain?
A: I don’t know about that. I talk to people all the time about players. The NBA teams are constantly looking for information. They do an unbelievable job evaluating. They talk to all kinds of people. They talk to the custodian at the gym to see what time guys are getting in there and stuff like that, how they treat people, and their teachers and all that stuff. Their intelligence gathering is really high level ’cause these are multi-million dollar decisions made by multi-billion dollar corporations … like in any decision, nobody’s going off what one person says.
Q: Would a GM job appeal to you?
A: Sure, yeah. You always think about stuff like that. But I’m really happy in the job I’ve had, and I don’t see a better job out there. Nobody’s been able to pull me out of it yet.