It’s hard to believe it was just two years ago when Queen Elizabeth II cut a lone figure on the balcony of Buckingham Palace as she celebrated Trooping the Colour in the 70th year of her reign.
So much has changed since that day on June 2, 2022, but similar scenes are expected this weekend for the second Trooping the Colour, the monarch’s official birthday parade in London, under the reign of King Charles III.
This time, however, the balcony could look even sparser as two of the monarchy’s most senior figures battle cancer, an unprecedented health crisis no-one could have predicted.
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Buckingham Palace is remaining tight-lipped as to who will be in the line-up on the balcony this Saturday for the traditional RAF flypast but King Charles will lead the celebrations alongside his wife Queen Camilla, who has become the family’s hardest-working member in recent months.
It would be Catherine’s first royal event since announcing her cancer diagnosis.
Rumours abound that the Princess of Wales will make a surprise appearance alongside the King and Queen, though the Prince of Wales’ attendance hasn’t been confirmed either, nor has that of their three children.
It would be Catherine’s first royal event since announcing her cancer diagnosis on March 22.
The Princess of Wales, as Colonel of the Irish Guards, was missing from the Colonel’s Review, the Trooping the Colour dress rehearsal, last week instead sending her apologies in a letter.
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The absence of Kate from the balcony tomorrow would be a first since she married into the Windsors in 2011.
She has stood side by side with Prince William and the royals every year following the royal wedding, bar 2020 and 2021 when the ceremony was modified due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Then, it was just Queen Elizabeth who inspected the parade from the quadrangle of Windsor Castle.
If the Princess of Wales does stand on the Buckingham Palace balcony, it would be a moment for triumph and celebration for the royal family
In 2022, in what would be her final Trooping the Colour, the 96-year-old monarch stepped out onto the famous balcony alone to rapturous applause before she was soon joined by her family. At the time, Her late Majesty’s attendance had been up in the air due to ongoing mobility issues.
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Similar questions surround this year’s events as Kate and the King undergo cancer treatment.
Already, it has been confirmed King Charles will not inspect the soldiers on horseback as he did last year. Instead, he is expected to ride in a carriage with the Queen, another way he is modifying his public-facing duties on the advice of his medical team while undergoing treatment for his cancer.
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Prince William is due to be on horseback. As is Princess Anne.
The Princess of Wales, who is also having treatment for cancer in private, may choose to join her family on the balcony for the flypast. Riding in a carriage for the procession seems unlikely.
If the Princess of Wales does stand on the Buckingham Palace balcony, it would be a moment for triumph and celebration for the royal family in its most challenging of years.
The King and Kate, both cancer patients, would present an image of unity and courage to the world, not only marking the most important royal event of the year together but giving hope to millions of people affected by illness.
However, if Kate chooses to stay out of the spotlight on Saturday then that would be perfectly fine as she has every right to privacy during her ongoing treatment.
If she was absent, Prince William would no doubt be there supporting his father as he has been doing remarkably well in the face of such personal upheaval.
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As for the three Wales children, who have been carefully shielded from the public since their mother’s cancer diagnosis, their inclusion tomorrow could be the ultimate morale boost for the monarchy.
Trooping the Colour without the cheeky antics of Prince George, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis would arguably be less exciting but it’s hard to imagine the children taking part without their mother.
Or it could be left to the Prince of Wales and Prince George, the two heirs, to stand alongside the King. And what a powerful image that would be.
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Last year, the line-up was restricted to working royals only: the King and Queen, the Wales family, the Princess Royal and Sir Timothy Laurence, the Duke and Duchess of Edinburgh, the Duke and Duchess of Gloucester and the Duke of Kent.
It was the King’s much-talked about slimmed-down monarchy.
Tomorrow’s balcony could feature even fewer royals if the Princess of Wales and her children stay home, or it could be expanded to include the extended family as seen during the reign of the late Queen Elizabeth at Trooping the Colour.
The King’s nieces Zara Tindall, Princess Beatrice and Princess Eugenie and his nephew Peter Phillips joined Prince William for one of the Buckingham Palace garden parties last month, a cousins’ outing that delighted guests and royal watchers.
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While their inclusion on the balcony tomorrow is unlikely, it could be the family outing of the year.
But there is another royal reunion that is even more unlikely tomorrow: that of the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, who haven’t attended a royal event together since the Queen’s funeral.
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Had Prince Harry and Meghan not been so publicly vocal of their disdain for the institution, perhaps the situation might have looked different this year.
For now, more than ever, the King has needed the support of his extended family and there have been multiple occasions when Prince Harry and Meghan could have filled a gap in the royal calendar had they not stepped back from public duties in 2020.
Queen Camilla, Princess Anne and the Duchess of Edinburgh have been busier than ever as treatment forced the King and the Princess of Wales to focus on their health instead of official duties.
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Harry and Meghan have become the poster couple for what could have been, a massive missed opportunity for the positive impact they could have had within the UK and Commonwealth.
Had things gone differently for the Sussexes, they and their two children Prince Archie and Princess Lilibet could have been included in tomorrow’s balcony line-up with the rest of the royals.
The last time Harry and Meghan attended Trooping the Colour was in 2022 when they watched the proceedings from a building overlooking the Horse Guards Parade.
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It’s doubtful Prince Harry will ever be seen on the palace balcony again unless he’s forgiven by the King and the Prince of Wales, with Prince William believed to be unwilling to budge in his stance towards his estranged brother.
Regardless of tomorrow’s line-up, one thing is guaranteed: the King will be keen to project an image of the monarchy’s strength and continuity.
Trooping the Colour, an event first held to mark the sovereign’s official birthday in 1748, is the biggest display of royal pomp and ceremony.
And even in the face of illness and ongoing family divisions, nothing will dampen the King’s birthday parade.
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