Editor’s note: Miller updated his projections at Nos. 11 and 13 at 12:45 p.m. ET on Thursday.
We’re closing in on the start of the 2024 NFL draft, so I’m running through all 32 first-round picks one last time with my final mock draft for this class. I think we all know what the Bears will do at No. 1 on Thursday night (8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC) — Caleb Williams can change things in Chicago — but things quickly get interesting after that.
I locked in my final rankings for this class last week, but mock drafts aren’t about what I see on tape — they are about what we believe each team will do when it is on the clock. So I’ve been making calls and firing off text messages to sources around the league to gather the latest intel and project each selection. Of course, there are always surprises, and one unexpected trade could throw off the whole board, but I ended up with five quarterbacks and plenty of future stars here in Round 1. I also projected two of those aforementioned trades to shake things up. But let’s get started with Chicago.
See Miller’s final rankings (ESPN+)
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
There will be no drama at the top of this draft — I fully expect the Bears to take Williams, the best player in the class. He is the only quarterback Chicago met with privately during the pre-draft process, which speaks to the team’s intentions. Williams’ combination of arm strength, playmaking and the way he elevates the talent around him makes him an easy pick for the Bears.
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The conversations I’ve had over the past week point to Daniels being the pick here. But I would also caution that new Commanders GM Adam Peters comes from the John Lynch tree in San Francisco, a team that executed a leak-proof process when it took Trey Lance over Mac Jones and Justin Fields at No. 3 overall in 2021. So I can’t completely rule out North Carolina’s Drake Maye; Washington might even still be finalizing its decision. Daniels — who threw 40 touchdown passes and ran for 10 scores last season — would be a great fit with the Commanders.
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Will the Patriots stick-and-pick or trade No. 3 for a bounty of draft capital? At least one trade call likely will come in while New England is on the clock, and the franchise might have a tough decision on its hands. My sense is ownership wants to get a young quarterback to start a new era of Patriots football under director of scouting Eliot Wolf and coach Jerod Mayo. Maye would be far from a consolation prize. He has the arm strength, pocket toughness and mobility to be a winner outdoors in the AFC East.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Harrison met with two teams for “30” visits in the lead-up to the draft — the Bears and Cardinals. Sources around the NFL say Harrison has an assurance from the Cardinals that he will be the pick if available at this spot. Arizona would be getting its next Larry Fitzgerald to pair with quarterback Kyler Murray. Harrison has great body control, speed and instincts.
Projected trade: Vikings get their QB
Vikings get: No. 5
Chargers get: Nos. 11 and 23, plus a 2025 first-rounder
The closer we get to the draft, the less convinced I am the Vikings feel they absolutely have to move up to get a quarterback. That said, they acquired pick No. 23 from the Texans six weeks ago, and they probably wouldn’t do that unless their plan was to package it in a move up the board.
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
McCarthy is pro-ready coming out of the Michigan offense and would enter a dream situation with the Vikings thanks to the great supporting cast in place. I see good arm strength and a smooth release on tape, and he can make plays with his legs.
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Sitting tight means the Giants might miss out on the Round 1 quarterbacks, but I continue to hear the front office is OK with that — especially if it means landing Nabers. The 6-foot, 199-pound speedster is a big play waiting to happen, and that’s an element New York sorely lacked in 2023. Nabers’ fantastic burst would open up the Giants’ offense and allow Daniel Jones to get the ball out faster after the team gave up the most sacks in the league last season (85).
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
It’s no secret that the Titans have eyes for Alt. I’ve been told by sources that should Alt be gone, the Titans would then potentially target Nabers. If both are gone? Trade out, and in a hurry. But Alt is here in this scenario, and he comes at good value and fills the team’s biggest need. After allowing just two sacks over the past two seasons, he’d be a welcome addition protecting Will Levis‘ blindside. Tennessee allowed 64 sacks last season (tied for fourth-most) and recently released Andre Dillard.
Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
OK, here’s the first big surprise of my projections. I have the Falcons going defense, which has often been predicted, but it’s not an edge rusher. Murphy would fit in coach Raheem Morris’ defensive scheme as a 3-technique in the mold of Aaron Donald. He is stout at the point of attack and has awesome first-step quickness, and some scouts say he’s the best defender in the class.
0:57
Byron Murphy II’s NFL draft profile
Check out some of the top highlights from Texas DT Byron Murphy II.
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Bears are rumored to love Odunze’s skill set. My No. 3 overall prospect has excellent ability on 50-50 balls and shows inside-outside versatility in his alignments. Pairing him with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett would give Chicago a fantastic supporting cast for Williams. Odunze led the nation in receiving last season with 1,640 yards, and he scored 13 TDs.
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
I keep hearing “pass-catcher” when reaching out to sources about the Jets. That’s not what I would do when the offensive line is anchored by two 33-year-old tackles in Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, but again, mock drafts are predictions. The Jets are all-in for 2024, and Bowers’ middle-of-the-field ability and skills after the catch would help round out this New York passing game that currently lacks a third option behind Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams. Last season, 494 of Bowers’ 714 yards came after the catch.
UPDATED PICK: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The latest buzz has the Chargers sticking at No. 5 to select Latham if they aren’t blown away by a trade offer. That was the hot rumor way back at the combine and seems to have held true. I still think the Chargers will get that big offer, though, with the Vikings jumping the Giants for a quarterback. In Latham, they’d get a plug-and-play right tackle with the best pure power in the draft class. He’ll have to clean up the penalties after logging 18 in college, but he has Pro Bowl potential. The Chargers also need receiver help, but the depth at that position means addressing it at pick No. 23 (acquired from the Vikings in our projected trade) or in Round 2 is possible.
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
The Broncos have been connected to Oregon quarterback Bo Nix in this spot, but this is simply too early for him, making it hard to imagine the Broncos sacrificing so much in value to get the fifth quarterback on the board. Perhaps Denver would attempt to trade back since it doesn’t have a second-rounder, but a few conversations this week led me to Turner here.
There are enough people who say Denver will look to beef up its pass rush first and potentially make a move for a quarterback in a secondary trade up, and it makes sense. The Broncos’ 3-4 defense doesn’t have a double-digit sack performer, and Turner’s first-step speed, length and bend around the edge would fit well in an outside linebacker role.
UPDATED PICK: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
A quarterback has been linked to the Raiders in this spot, and the team seems to love Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. — but does it like him enough to pull the trigger this early when the consensus is that no other team would select him in Round 1? Instead, the Raiders can target the offensive line and plug Fuaga in at right tackle opposite Kolton Miller. Fuaga is a massive people-mover at 324 pounds and has shown excellent agility in space in the Beavers’ zone-run scheme.
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
You could argue that the biggest need in the entire first round is the Saints getting an offensive tackle. Trevor Penning hasn’t developed into a surefire starter after New Orleans took him in the first round in 2022, and the Saints are facing an uncertain future with veteran Ryan Ramczyk‘s knee injury. Now is the time, in a historically good tackle class, to get a starter of the future. Fashanu is a natural left tackle who allowed one sack in his past two years at Penn State, and I see great power and agility on tape.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Here’s one where I’m going all-in on intel. The Colts have been linked to Worthy in numerous phone calls and texts over the past week, enough so that I’m buying it. The Colts do need speed at receiver, and Worthy has record-setting 4.21 wheels. Putting him in the mix with Michael Pittman Jr. and last year’s second-rounder Josh Downs makes for a sweet trio of pass-catchers around Anthony Richardson. Imagine Worthy matched with Richardson’s arm on vertical routes in Indy?
Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington
The Seahawks will beef up the trenches, and there’s no better option for them at No. 16 than Fautanu. This would reunite him with his former college offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who is now the Seahawks’ OC. Fautanu played left tackle in college, but he has the tools to be an All-Pro guard. And that’s where he’d start in Seattle, allowing Abraham Lucas to stay at right tackle. Both of Seattle’s starting guards from last season — Damien Lewis and Evan Brown — left in free agency, though the team signed Laken Tomlinson.
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Jaguars’ need at cornerback has been mentioned to me a lot. Other teams see Jacksonville as a franchise that you have to jump if you want one of the top corners in the class. But I have the Jags landing the draft’s CB1 in Arnold without moving anywhere. A physical cover man with textbook technique at the line of scrimmage, Arnold would fill a hole in the secondary opposite Tyson Campbell. One additional note, though: Don’t rule out a wide receiver here.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
The future at wide receiver in Cincinnati is unclear with Tee Higgins on the franchise tag (and requesting a trade) and veteran Tyler Boyd not re-signed as a free agent. So the Bengals have to restock the pantry at the position. Thomas led the FBS with 17 touchdowns last season and is an elite deep threat with great length and concentration when attacking the ball. Higgins is actually my pro comparison for him.
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
We haven’t seen the Rams make a first-round pick since 2016, and sources outside the organization think they could move this pick if the right offer comes along. That said, Verse is such a great value and fills an immediate need in the Rams’ defensive front. The powerful edge rusher had nine sacks in 2023 and proved to be the best speed-to-power player in the defensive end class.
1:33
The highlights that make Jared Verse a top NFL prospect
Check out the tape on Florida State DL Jared Verse to see why he’s a player to watch in the NFL draft.
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Pittsburgh has been suggested as a potential trade-back candidate, but I think the team instead drafts either a corner or right tackle at No. 20. Cornerback is too tempting to pass up with Mitchell falling here in this scenario. He has 4.33 speed and excellent ball skills, breaking up 32 passes and picking off six over the past two seasons. He’s a potential shutdown cornerback in the NFL, and the talent in this position group falls off sharply after the first round. The Steelers would have to capitalize on this opportunity.
Graham Barton, G, Duke
Miami signed center Aaron Brewer in free agency but could use an upgrade at guard. Barton, who played center and left tackle at Duke, would slide in as a Day 1 starter next to Brewer. The beauty of this selection is that Barton’s versatility and experience mean he could still play tackle if Terron Armstead — who has dealt with injuries in recent years and played in just 10 games last season — were to miss time in 2024.
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Cornerback is definitely in play and a need, but I can’t get over the fact that general manager Howie Roseman has never drafted a cornerback in the first round. The Eagles tend to get ahead of needs, drafting for a position before it becomes an issue — and they like to prioritize the trenches. And adding Lane Johnson‘s protege — Johnson and Guyton, two Oklahoma alums, have been working out together in the offseason — to be his future replacement is savvy team-building. Guyton could also play right guard if Tyler Steen doesn’t slide into that starting spot this season.
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The fastest cornerback in the class goes to the Chargers, where the team has a gigantic need that must be addressed early. Wide receiver can wait a little longer, with the Chargers back on the clock at No. 37 in Round 2 and the cornerback class not as deep. Wiggins’ speed (4.28 in the 40-yard dash), motor and length at 6-2 make him a high-ceiling player with a bright future. The Chargers allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt last season (28th), but he can help.
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Trying to ascertain what the Cowboys will do in Round 1 has been impossible thanks to their sheer number of needs. But Dallas has always been built through the offensive line, dating to the glory days of the 1990s. I expect that same priority to show up Thursday night, especially since Tyron Smith is now with the Jets. Mims started just eight games in college, but his length, power and movement ability are high-end traits. He played right tackle in college, but I see the agility to play on either side of the line.
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
It’s a legitimate toss-up between cornerback and offensive lineman for the Packers, but with the run on tackles hitting in the early 20s here, I think they’d go get the most versatile defensive back in the class. DeJean suffered a broken leg that ended his 2023 season, but his pro day workout answered any questions about his NFL readiness. He can play inside corner, outside corner or safety. The Packers would love his ball skills (seven career picks) in Jeff Hafley’s defense.
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Medicals are the huge key for Latu’s draft stock, which could set him up to be drafted much earlier than this if teams are good with the neck injury he had at Washington in 2020. He’s the most pro-ready pass-rusher in the class, though, with hand usage of a veteran and consistent pass-rush plans. Latu had 23.5 sacks over the past two seasons, and Tampa Bay is looking for a boost off the edge.
Projected trade: Raiders hop back into Round 1
Raiders get: No. 27
Cardinals get: No. 44 and a 2025 second-rounder
Las Vegas missed out on the top four quarterbacks at No. 13, but it could certainly make a move to add QB5 (or QB6, depending on how you stack Penix and Nix) later in Round 1. The Raiders have eight picks in 2024, but I have them pairing a 2025 selection with this year’s second-rounder to get back into Day 1.
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Penix has been linked to the Raiders over and over in the weeks leading up to the draft, so much so that there’s either genuine interest or the team is doing its best to fool us all. But the strong-armed Heisman runner-up would certainly help the Raiders’ pass game. Las Vegas has Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell, but it is looking for a long-term solution to the QB issue after finishing 26th in QBR last season (40.1).
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
There is an expectation that the Bills will be very aggressive moving up the board to get into range to select a top-three receiver, but the cost might be too prohibitive. So how about sitting tight and getting a true WR1 in Mitchell? He has 4.34 speed, caught 11 touchdown passes last season and is a proven deep threat with after-the-catch ability. The Bills lost Gabe Davis and traded Stefon Diggs, but Mitchell could be a big part of the fix.
0:54
Adonai Mitchell’s NFL draft profile
Check out some of the top highlights from Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell.
Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri
With the draft in the Lions’ city, the team could use this pick to select a hometown prospect in Robinson, who is from the Detroit suburbs. The 285-pound defensive lineman can play inside or outside along the four-man front and has the power to rock back offensive tackles and the quickness to shoot gaps. He’s an ascending player whom the Lions could develop opposite (or next to) Aidan Hutchinson.
Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
No team loves toolsy pass-rushers like the Ravens, who have drafted Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo in recent years. Neither has produced like an early-round draft choice yet, but Robinson has the upside to make a big impact in Baltimore. He is the draft’s fastest pass-rusher (4.48 in the 40 at the combine) with devastating burst off the snap. He produced only four sacks last season, but his ceiling is the highest of any edge player in the class.
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
“The Niners will go BPA,” said a rival team’s executive in a conversation this week. And that’s likely true, as the 49ers have many needs at premium positions like offensive tackle, cornerback and defensive tackle. This could all change if wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk gets traded, but the best value here is McKinstry. That pick would allow San Francisco to move Deommodore Lenoir inside and pair McKinstry with Charvarius Ward on the outside. He’s long, instinctive and tough, and he broke up 20 passes over the past two seasons.
Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
There’s enough buzz this week about BYU left tackle Kingsley Suamataia to connect him here, but I can’t overlook his ranking on my board as a late second-rounder and think Kansas City’s ties to him could come in Round 2. Wide receiver is still the team’s biggest need, and Legette’s power and after-the-catch ability would make for an ideal complement to what Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown provide. This offense led the NFL in dropped passes last season (38), so it needs true playmakers.