A decider puts to bed the rollercoaster of a journey, and Origin 2024 has been some kind of ride. Two clinical victories, one for either side – built by a change of personnel and firecracker starts.
With both the Maroons and Blues ironing out weaknesses and exploiting strengths, game three is set to be a see-saw fixture with the kicking boot to play a pivotal role. Expect a few penalty conversions and a battle in the middle for the first quarter.
Payne Haas and Lindsay Collins have their states on shoulders and quads. Hit hard and pump those legs. For Queensland, they have lacked a physical presence in the forward pack. Pat Carrigan was the best of the Maroon big men in game two – but don’t expect Collins and Reuben Cotter to combine for less than 200 run metres this time.
Reece Walsh was off from the get go – lacking energy and seemingly caught out by nerves. With the presence of Kalyn Ponga, he will feel a weight lifted off his shoulders. The No.1 is no longer the sole form of flair, and has the license to flush even wider off of shape with the speed of Newcastle’s skipper.
Players scuffle during Origin II at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
There was promise of a grudge match towards the crux of game one, but with a man-on-deck mismatch – Daly Cherry-Evans was too classy to let such a situation slide.
Ben Hunt went missing in the second contest, as did his ruck offsider Harry Grant. Grant must be deployed earlier – as fatigue in Origin takes no longer than 10 minutes to cause havoc.
1. Can Moses part the red sea twice?
It took Mitchell Moses five Origin games. But he conquered the cauldron with a man of the match performance. Some would say Nathan Cleary is yet to put in such a dominant stint – yet such heroics can’t be justified through a sole 80-minutes.
Moses must be one better in game three. Simply put, the Maroons will not gift him such time in the decider. Tom Dearden was quiet, as too was Jaydn Su’A and Murray Taulagi. Queensland’s left side was ineffective. While Kurt Capewell is not a damaging bull runner like the Dragon – he applies great pressure in defence and is a wise head. He will provide much needed communication in the line, and has a strong ability to shift laterally (filling in at centre on many occasions).
Parramatta’s No.7 must continue to push the envelope. Short side raids and chip kicks – leaving a stone unturned in a decider is not the play. Sure, play conservatively early on. Kick to the corners and stick to structure. As the game pushes to the latter stages, Moses must run, weave and rush. While he missed a few tackles late in his Origin return – his rampages on Dearden were huge momentum swings for the Blues.
2. Ponga pops up at lock
In game two of 2018 Origin, Ponga made his debut off the bench. He was the second interchange for the Maroons, replacing prop Jarrod Wallace in the 28th minute. Wallace did not return for the remainder of the game, and the Knights wizz was a roaming middle for the best part of 50 minutes.
It would seem likely to suggest Ponga will play a similar role. Cotter and Collins can be big minute props, especially the former – who is as fit as they come. Kurt Capewell will be replaced by Felise Kaufusi – who is no stranger to a role in the middle either.
Yet defensively, playing Ponga in the middle is a safer move. He will not be exposed to one-on-one matchups against the likes of Angus Crichton or Liam Martin. In a 10-metre channel, he can cut down Jake Trbojevic, Watson and Cameron Murray.
He will be tested against Payne Haas and Spencer Leniu. This is where Slater’s bench could backfire big time. Goal-line defence. Ponga is a great legs tackler – but on the front-line, he could be subjected to a barging tirade from Haas and Leniu. He simply does not have the strength to stop the rampaging Rooster on the try line.
In 2018, NSW didn’t have an enigma in the forward pack. Matt Prior, David Klemmer and Paul Vaughan were the Blues’ biggest forward threats. Objectively, you take Haas over any of those three at each turn.
3. Origin Gagai uncaged
There is one player who lifts to an unprecedented level in Origin – Dane Gagai. I think the collective agree that Gagai can be quite poor at club land. While his recent form has been solid, his defence on the edge is often flimsy.
Yet as a Maroon, he has an outstanding record. 23 Origins, 12 tries. Five series wins. Valentine Holmes on the wing is a great move from Slater. He is a cracking sprinter and is best with space. Despite Coates and Taulagi being great finishers, the reality is, they are not terrific kick returners.
Holmes himself started his Origin career on the wing like Gagai – and with the two linking up, they know how to score points and start sets.
Defence remains the biggest query for Queensland’s right side. Nanai, Gagai and Holmes. They will be peppered by Crichton, Best and To’o – who are all post contact pests.
4. Luai’s NSW career hanging by a thread
Regardless of Luai’s strong game two, a mediocre performance spells his extinction from the NSW set up. If Moses is to put forward a better performance than the No.6 – Cleary and the Eels half are destined for partnership in 2025.
Many query the combination of Moses and Cleary – they don’t have to. Moses was already seen filling in at first receiver on the left side for a large chunk of game two. He is a gifted ball runner and is a better defender than Luai.
In modern day rugby league, especially the NRL, halves float either side. While wearing No.7 on his back for the last few weeks at Penrith, Luai is not playing a vastly different role. Yes, he is kicking a little more. Yet he remains on the left side and is technically the five-eighth. Moses would slot into the role seamlessly.
Luai can assert his case by choosing his moments. He cannot dance around the defence during forward momentum – it ruins structure and the line-running strengths of his offsiders. But, when he does it spontaneously – opportunities arise. He can be unpredictable and create chances.
5. Slater a sore loser?
If Queensland are to lose game three – it will mark Billy Slater’s first series defeat as a coach. The Melbourne legend has been highly professional throughout his first two seasons, and humble in victory.
Game two showcased a different side of Slater. It was bizarre. The “we’re still Queenslanders” comment was extremely cringe. Sure, those players are performing for their state – but at some point, you’ve got to throw that garbage out the window. At the end of the day, Queensland are not a different breed to NSW, they do not understand Origin differently – and most importantly, they are no better or worse as a state.
Putting Queensland on a pedestal was a rookie mistake by the otherwise flawless coach. It will be interesting to see how he deals with a possible series loss.
Retired players turned coaches often say a loss feels worse in the box as oppose to being on the field. Slater was all class when losing the 2018 grand final against the Roosters – but his game two response illustrated signs of media frustration.
The Kick – Origin judiciary applying to the NRL season
Player punishments in Origin should not apply to the NRL regular season. Clubs should not be penalised for the actions of players during state duties.
The NRL expects Origin stars to back up and perform twice a week. Coaches willingly set free their staples and re-jig their sides throughout the interim to keep up with Origin. Bans must be worked around.
Joseph Suaalii’s shot was undoubtedly illegal. It was a send-off offence. Forceful contact to the head – regardless of the nature, is always going to result in a ban. That is the current state of rugby league, as player safety is at the forefront of the game’s longevity moving forward.
Yet, the Rooster should not be slapped with a suspension from clubland. A fine, ban from further Origin games – that is understandable. Yet, to hand his club with a massive blow – despite them glowingly presenting the player for the state stage, is unfair. Origin is not part of the NRL premiership, and already plays an influential role on the ladder and rosters throughout the season.
If the game is supposedly officiated differently – don’t apply the same bans to a foreign feature.