I think YODA is a hater.
For those who haven’t been reading lately, YODA is short for Ye Old Draft Analyzer — a stat-based NBA draft prospect evaluation tool I’ve been tinkering with for a while now.
I’ve used YODA to write about centers and forwards. Today it’s the wings. And once again, YODA isn’t a fan of basically anyone in this year’s draft. Hater.
To my way of thinking, wings are generally mid-sized players (think 6-5ish to about 6-9ish) who could plausibly play traditional SF or SG (what the great Ken Beatrice would have called “quick side forward”) but not PG, and maybe not PF because PFs are generally a little bigger and stronger. Think Kyle Kuzma (a forward) vs. Corey Kispert (a wing).
Let’s get this out of the way: YODA has first round grades on two wings, and two others who are close. None of them is the guy who allegedly will be selected first or second overall, Zaccharie Risacher.
Yeah, the guy who’s apparently one of the very best prospects in the draft has a borderline second round grade in YODA. Is YODA wrong? Very possibly. Maybe probably. But my evaluation process is an attempt to use statistical data in an objective way, and…sometimes the numbers don’t match perceptions.
Risacher’s low grade is not due to age or competition level. He’s just 19 years old, and he played in a good professional league. What YODA doesn’t like — subpar offensive efficiency, low two-point percentage, below average free throw shooting, meh rebounding, paltry steals and blocks, elevated fouls, and almost twice as many turnovers as assists.
The statistical markers for athleticism (two-point percentage, steals, blocks) are subpar. That unfortunately matches his performance at the combine the NBA recently held in Treviso, Italy.
Maybe he was tired from having just completed a long season. Maybe he just didn’t care because he knew he was going to be a top pick. Whatever the reason, the times and measures peg him as one of the slowest and ground-bound prospects tested this year.
And he’s not making up for it with ultra-long arms — his wingspan is just one inch longer than his height (more than a standard deviation below average for an NBA prospect), and his height is basically right around normal for a wing.
The updated YODA-driven statistical doppelganger comps are…well…you decide what the right word is. Here are some of the more recognizable names: Sir’Jabari Rice, Keon Johnson, Hamidou Diallo, Isaiah Todd, Patrick Williams, Chris Singleton, Perry Jones III. The previous “most similar” (Kevin Knox) is further down the updated list, in large part because Knox graded as a slightly better prospect in YODA.
Now, YODA could be wrong. It could be that it’s missing what the scouts are seeing on the court. I hope so for the sake of him and whoever drafts him.
Moving on, here are the wings YODA has with first round grades:
- Dalton Knecht, Tennessee — Older prospect (23 years old) with acceptable size and above average agility. The selling point on Knecht: three-point shooting (39.7% on 8.5 attempts per 40 minutes). He got to the free throw line at a high rate, as well. YODA has him as a late first (in a typical draft) because he didn’t do much else. Rebounding? Meh. Few assists. Bare minimum blocks and steals. The statistical markers for applied athleticism are all subpar (49.9% on twos, under two stocks (combined steals and blocks)).
- Ron Holland, G League Ignite — Decent athlete with some skills who endured a brutal situation with Ignite last season. His offensive efficiency was horrific — just 24.0% on threes. He still has a first round grade due to solid rebounding, some playmaking, and a bunch of steals (2.9 per 40 minutes). Ignite’s total lack of competent guards thrust Holland into more of a playmaker role, and his lack of experience showed in the 4.0 turnovers per 40 minutes. This is a guy I suspect is a better prospect than his numbers show.
Those who are close:
- Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois — Already 24 years old. Not much non-scoring production. And yet, this guy can score — 57.3% on twos, 36.2% on a high volume of threes, 80.1% on more than 10 free throw attempts per 40 minutes (only DaRon Holmes and Zach Edey got to the free throw line more often in this year’s draft). Shannon used 20+ possessions per 40 minutes with an offensive rating of 122. His age makes him inappropriate for the Wizards. A team like the Denver Nuggets or Phoenix Suns or Golden State Warriors should snap him up.
- Harrison Ingram, North Carolina — Good three-point shooter, who also rebounded well. Stat markers for athleticism were bad — just 46.7% on twos, 1.7 steals and 0.5 blocks per 40. Very low usage. And, of concern for his long-range shooting, he shot 61.2% on free throws. He’s still worth a second round pick for the threes and rebounding.
And the guys with second round grades:
- Cam Spencer, Connecticut — Excellent shooter with some playmaking. Already 24 years old. Measured small and short-armed at the combine.
- Dillon Jones, Weber State — Shot just 32.4% on threes, but his overall production was outstanding — rebounding, playmaking, and steals. Shot 85.7% from the free throw line. Will need to improve his three-point shooting to stick in the NBA.
- Johnny Furphy, Kansas — Currently 22nd in Tankathon’s consensus mock draft, the positives are 64.2% on twos, and 8.2 rebounds per 40 minutes. But, his wingspan is the same as his height (not a good sign), and his vertical leap score was about the same as Zach Edey’s.
- Cody Williams, Colorado — Expected to go in the top 15, he can really shoot. Unfortunately, he didn’t rebound, play-make, or produce steals or blocks. Another prospect with more turnovers than assists. Draft him for the shooting and hope he can learn the rest.
- Melvin Ajinca, Saint-Quentin (France) — Another one-dimensional shooter, though at a not-mind-blowing 34.7% on threes. Below 50% on twos. But 80.1% on free throws. Nothing exceptional in non-shooting categories.
- Kevin McCullar, Kansas — Finally, a break from the one-dimensional shooter mold. McCullar is a questionable shooter (though 80% from the free throw line), who rebound, assisted and produced steals. Too bad he’s not 18 or 19 years old instead of 23.
- Jalen Bridges, Baylor — Terrific shooter with some rebounding and not much else. Sound familiar? Bridges, who’s 23 years old, shot 41.2% from deep, and 82.3% from the free throw line. Seems like another older player for a good team to draft and hope they can slot into the rotation cheap.
- Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg (France) — Young. Shot 38.7% from three-point range. That’s about it on the positives. Average or worse pretty much across the board otherwise.
Did I fail to mention someone who interests you? Drop the name in the comments, and I’ll check the database.