The 2024 NBA Finals shift to Dallas tonight for Game 3, with the Mavericks trying desperately to avoid a 3-0 series hole.
The Boston Celtics won the first two games comfortably, but will be dealing with injury as Kristaps Porzingis (lower leg) is questionable. Kyrie Irving has struggled in the Finals thus far and Mavericks as a whole have been ice-cold from 3-point range, but role players tend to play better at home.
So, what should we expect in Game 3? Let’s dig in and identify some angles (and props) of interest.
Mavericks -2.5 points (-110).
Game 3 is a moment of truth for the Mavericks, and all signs would point to this being their best chance to break through for a win. Dallas was more competitive in Game 2 after getting blown out in the opener, and Luka Doncic was able to get his teammates more involved in the offense. At home, the Mavericks’ role players are more likely to hit the open jumpers or get up a bit higher for the alley-oops than they were on the road. In addition, Irving get the opportunity to play away from the hostile Celtics crowd that might have affected him and should have the chance to get hot in front of his home crowd. Finally, Porzingis has been a huge difference-maker in the series, and if he is limited by his leg injury, it opens things up for the Mavericks to attack the rim while also taking away a layer of the Celtics’ offense.
Jrue Holiday over 5.5 rebounds (-170).
While Jayson Tatum is the leading rebounder on the Celtics, Holiday has quietly been cleaning the glass as well from the backcourt. Holiday has averaged 6.7 RPG during the playoffs, but he has really picked it up of late. Holiday has averaged 9.3 RPG during his past four games with at least eight boards in all four. He has seven or more boards in seven of his past nine games, so I also like over 6.5 rebounds at plus money (+110).
P.J. Washington over 14.5 points (-110).
Washington has been the Mavericks’ most consistent role player as the third scorer behind Doncic and Irving. He has at least nine points in 14 straight playoffs games and scored 14 and 17 points in Games 1 and 2 of the Finals, respectively, despite making only one of his eight 3-point attempts. Coming back home, with the season on the line and the Celtics’ rim protection potentially decreasing due to Porzingis’ injury, look for Washington to be aggressive both in the paint and behind the arc. The last time the Mavs were behind in a series, in the second round against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Washington stepped up and averaged 25.7 PPG in Games 2 through 4.
Luka Doncic to record a triple-double (+260).
Doncic has averaged almost a triple-double during the 2024 playoffs (29.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 8.5 APG). He has registered triple-doubles in six of his past 10 games, including Game 2 of the Finals.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks
NBA Finals – Game 3
8:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 64-18 (43-35-4)
Mavericks: 50-32 (49-33-0)
Line: Mavericks (-2.5) Total: 213.5
Money Line: Celtics (+125), Mavericks (-150)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 1.9, straight up 56%, 210.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Celtics: Kristaps Porzingis, (GTD – Lower Leg)
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD – Chest); Greg Brown III, (OUT – Personal)