Can the Dallas Mavericks protect home court, stave off a Celtics sweep, and send the series back to Boston? Betting intel suggests a close contest could unfold, as the Mavericks (-1.5) are just slight home favorites in their bid to make this a competitive series.
Even as the series approaches its conclusion, there are several savvy angles worth exploiting for betting purposes. For instance, Dereck Lively II‘s unbridled energy can work against him in terms of foul rate, which could lead to limited minutes and fewer opportunities on the glass. Thus, we can take a look at Lively under 8.5 rebounds (-135) given this confluence of factors.
With an eye on finding where winning margins might surface, let’s dive into tonight’s Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
Derrick White over 3.5 assists (-180).
White appears poised to deliver plenty of pick-and-roll passes in tonight’s matchup against a Mavericks defense that has struggled to close out on shooters in recent games. There could even be some value in playing this bet up to 4.5 assists to gain better juice.
Al Horford over 2.5 assists (+125).
With the promise of extra minutes in the wake of Kristaps Porzingis‘ injury, Horford’s ability to extend possessions on the offensive glass and also run offensive sets from the high post makes this passing prop appear reasonable.
Payton Pritchard over 0.5 3-pointers made (-130).
Pritchard’s change-of-pace role for the Celtics comes with limitations, but his efficient shooting touch and willingness to space the floor makes him a prime candidate to sink a single shot from deep.
Kyrie Irving over 2.5 3-pointers (-105).
Irving’s playing time and usage rise at home. With Luka Doncic clearly ailing, Irving’s scoring and shooting load should swell in this must-win scenario.
P.J. Washington over 6.5 rebounds (-135).
Washington should also be busy as a small-ball big patrolling the glass for the Mavericks. With Porzingis ailing, Washington could see even more run given Boston’s lack of size up front.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks
NBA Finals – Game 4
8:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 64-18 (50-43-6)
Mavericks: 50-32 (59-42-1)
Line: Mavericks (-1.5) Total: 211.5
Money Line: Celtics (-110), Mavericks (-110)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 2.7, straight up 59.1%, 208.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Celtics: Kristaps Porzingis, (GTD – Lower Leg)
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD – Chest); Greg Brown III, (OUT – Personal)