The Boston Celtics look to protect home court tonight and take a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals, while the Dallas Mavericks try to bounce back from a flat Game 1 and steal a win on the road.
The Celtics were dominant in the first game of the series, setting a new single-game Finals record with seven players making multiple 3-pointers. They were clearly sparked by the return of Kristaps Porzingis, who came off the bench to score almost a point-per-minute and make several highlight-worthy blocked shots.
Can they keep that momentum in Game 2, or can the Mavericks instead show the opener was more a case of a bad game than a bad matchup?
Let’s discuss, with an eye on identifying betting angles of interest.
Mavericks +6.5 points (-105). The Celtics blew open Game 1, but the Mavericks have been one of the two best teams in the NBA since the Feb. 8 trade deadline and proved in the Western Conference playoffs that they are championship caliber. I expect Mavericks coach Jason Kidd to make adjustments for Game 2, attacking the Celtics’ man-to-man defense with more ball movement instead of ISO and trying to get more players than just Luka involved in the scoring. If they can do that, as well as doing a better job of limiting the Celtics’ production from behind the arc, I expect a much more competitive Mavericks effort on Sunday. According to BPI, the Celtics should be favored but by only a 4.1 point margin that is within the spread.
Mavericks and Celtics over 214.5 total points (-110). The total was low in Game 1, only 196 combined points, in large part because the Celtics held the Mavericks to only 89 points. While the Celtics are a strong defensive team, this result was an anomaly for both the Mavericks’ offense and the Celtics’ defense. Game 1 represented the Mavericks’ lowest scoring effort of the playoffs so far, and they’ve averaged 106.9 PPG for the playoffs despite facing two of the four best defensive ratings in the NBA in the last two rounds. The Celtics, meanwhile, have allowed 111.1 PPG in the playoffs despite not having faced a healthy offense as strong as the Mavericks’ before the Finals. According to BPI, the projected total for Game 2 is 216.7 points.
Luka Doncic over 7.5 assists (-150). The most shocking statistic of Game 1, to me, was Luka being held to only 1 assist. That was his lowest assist total of the entire season, spanning 88 total games (70 regular season, 18 playoffs games). The Celtics played Doncic largely 1-on-1 and didn’t blitz the on-ball pick action, which limited Luka’s ability to create easy shots for teammates. On the other hand, the Mavericks’ finishers missed a lot of makeable shots and Luka was also more willing than he should have been to fall into his ISO game. I look for Luka to bounce-back as a distributor in this game with a concerted effort to get his teammates involved at a more normal rate. Luka has at least eight assists in 12 of his 18 playoff games.
Kyrie Irving over 21.5 points (-160). Irving struggled on offense in Game 1, managing only 12 points on 6-for-19 FG and 0-for-5 from behind the arc. These represented, respectively, his third-lowest point total, second-worst shooting effort from the field and most 3-point attempts without a make in these playoffs. In a crucial Game 2, I look for Irving to put forth a much better showing in his dual roles of team leader and co-offense generator with Luka Doncic. Entering Game 1, Irving had averaged 26.2 PPG in his previous six outings and will likely need to produce at that level for the Mavericks to be competitive in Game 2.
Jayson Tatum to record a double-double (-135). Tatum is the primary rebounder for the Celtics from the power forward slot, with neither Porzingis or Al Horford high-volume on the glass. Tatum has averaged 10 or more boards in six straight playoffs series over the last two seasons, and in these playoffs he has 10 or more rebounds in 11 of his last 13 games including Game 1. As a sneaky backup, Tatum also has at least eight assists in three of his last six games and has some potential to produce a points-assists double-double or a triple-double (+1600) as well.
Luka Doncic to record a triple-double (+450). This is a plus-money bet that consistently has a higher likelihood of occurrence than the odds suggest. Luka averaged almost a triple-double in the regular season at 33.9 PPG, 9.8 APG and 9.2 RPG has triple-doubles in five of his last nine games, and he generated triple-doubles in both of his regular season matchups against the Celtics this season (average 35 points, 15 rebounds and 12 assists).
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics
8:00 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 50-32 (49-33-0)
Celtics: 64-18 (43-35-4)
Line: Celtics (-6.5) Total: 215.5
Money Line: Mavericks (+210), Celtics (-260)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 5.1, straight up 66%, 216.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD – Knee); Greg Brown III, (OUT – Personal)
Celtics: None reported