Monday, November 4, 2024

NBA free agency grades: Harden, Clippers agree to two-year deal

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A day after forward Paul George declined a $48.7 million option with the LA Clippers, the franchise is expected to agree to a deal with 10-time All-Star James Harden.

Harden plans to return to the Clippers on a two-year, $70 million contract, league sources told ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk on Sunday.

With George planning meetings with the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers as well as the Clippers, it was imperative that LA got Harden to return alongside Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers are moving into a new arena at the start of the season in October and hope to bring back several former All-Stars on the court to kick off the team’s tenure in Inglewood, California.

After being traded to LA from Philadelphia early last season, Harden averaged 16.6 points and 8.5 assists. He helped lead the Clippers to the playoffs, where they were eliminated in the first round by the Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks.

ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton breaks down the the contract and hands out a grade on the deal.


Harden agrees to two-year deal to stay with LA Clippers

Deal:

Grade: B

All eyes are on the Clippers, who are sweating out Paul George’s free agency. While we await George taking meetings with Orlando and Philadelphia as well as the Clippers, they managed to take care of their other marquee free agent just ahead of the 6 p.m. ET opening of free agency.

A two-year, $70 million deal means a slight pay cut for Harden from the $35.7 million he made last season on a player option, but it comes with far less headache. After not finding the market he expected a year ago, Harden picked up his option with an eye toward forcing a trade from Philadelphia. That took until Nov. 1, when the Sixers sent Harden to the Clippers in a six-player trade.

Having made his way to L.A., Harden was unlikely to head elsewhere this summer, especially with his market largely unchanged. The most competitive team with the cap space to make a similar offer was the 76ers, and no reunion there was forthcoming.

As a result, the Clippers weren’t really bidding against another opponent so much as the possibility of angering Harden to the point where he would consider playing for far less money to join a team with the non-taxpayer midlevel exception. One such possibility: the Los Angeles Lakers, who could use their midlevel if LeBron James indeed takes the pay cut he has offered should the team land an impact free agent.

Given those parameters, the Clippers and Harden probably ended up in a fair spot. As maligned as Harden was during the second half of last season, his overall performance was very solid after accounting for the smaller role he played in the Clippers’ offense. (His 21% usage rate was his lowest since his first two NBA campaigns as a reserve with the Oklahoma City Thunder.)

For a second consecutive season, Harden shot better than 38% from 3-point range. Add in his usual proclivity for drawing fouls (5.0 free throw attempts per 36 minutes) and Harden scored 6% more efficiently than league average in terms of true shooting percentage.

The Clippers’ first-round loss to the Mavericks, played largely without star Kawhi Leonard, featured the usual mix of brilliant performances and duds from Harden. He scored a combined 61 points on 20-of-34 shooting in the Clippers’ two wins, then went 7-of-28 from the field over the final two games as Dallas closed out the series in six.

All of this suggests Harden is still a borderline All-Star but no longer a superstar, making $35 million a reasonable annual salary on a short-term deal. A player option for 2025-26 gives both Harden and the Clippers more choices for how to structure things after they have a better idea of the franchise’s direction, starting with George’s decision on whether to leave.

If George re-signs for something close to his max salary, the Clippers will push over the NBA’s second luxury tax apron this season. Because the Clippers are paying the higher repeater tax, they’d again threaten the Phoenix Suns for the NBA’s highest payroll. Still, modest year-to-year raises in the extension Leonard signed during the season and multiple expiring contracts would give the Clippers a path below the second apron by 2026-27 at the latest, in time to prevent their 2032 first-round pick from being moved to the end of the first round.

Should George decide to leave, the Clippers’ options get more complex. With 11 players under contract, including forward Kai Jones on a non-guaranteed salary, they’ve got enough room under the lower luxury tax apron to use their non-taxpayer midlevel exception. Alternatively, the Clippers could try to structure George’s departure as a sign-and-trade, creating a massive trade exception they could use to help replace him.

No matter what the Clippers’ Plan B is, replacing George’s two-way production via trade or free agency would be impossible. At the very least, re-signing Harden gives them a high floor on offense and an idea of exactly what they can spend once they get a decision on George’s future.

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