NBA free agency: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope tops list of available shooting guards

NBA free-agency breakdown: Overall Top 25 | Point Guards

The shooting guard market for this summer isn’t exactly mind-blowing at the top, but it’s heavy on the type of shooting specialists and 3-and-D role players whom contending teams crave to fill out their rosters.

I’m breaking down all of the plausible free-agent shooting guards on the market this summer. Note the word plausible — I didn’t include players like defensive ace Alex Caruso (whose contract was only partially guaranteed prior to his trade to Oklahoma City), Dallas’ Dante Exum (who’s on a non-guaranteed deal for a mere $3.15 million), Bucks energizer Andre Jackson Jr. (who has a half-guaranteed deal for his second season in Milwaukee) and Cleveland’s Slingin’ Sam Merrill (non-guaranteed for the minimum after shooting 40.4 percent from 3 last season).

Here’s how my BORD$ formula rates the value of all the options at shooting guard this summer.

Tier I: Max and near-max guys

None

Tier II: More than midlevel exception, less than max

1. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver (player option): $27,458,874

Caldwell-Pope’s conundrum for the Nuggets is that he stands to make the team incredibly expensive, with a player option for $15.4 million for this season but a BORD$ valuation for much more. While he’s already 31 and the years will be a consideration, one could easily see a team giving him an offer somewhat to Bruce Brown’s arrangement a year ago (Brown got two years, including a team option, and $45 million total), except perhaps even more expensive. Would it be crazy to go three years and $80 million with a third-year team option?

I wrote about this already when I previewed free agency, but the Nuggets can also negotiate an extension with Caldwell-Pope that builds off his $15.4 million salary for 2024-25. If they were to retain him, this seems like the most cap-friendly way, even if it involves overpaying him in the later years of the deal. A four-year extension would add $97 million, taking the total value to $112 million and paying him until he’s 35. Is that better than what he can do in the cap room market? It’s close, seemingly.

Note that, if Caldwell-Pope leaves, the Nuggets will still be over the luxury tax for 2024-25 and would only have the taxpayer midlevel exception (likely with a starting salary around $5.18 million) and trades as a means to replace him.

2. De’Anthony Melton, Philadelphia: $26,531,007

Melton was injured much of the second half of the season and seems to be a guy coaches don’t quite trust to be a two-way starter, but he’s consistently rated as one of the league’s most underrated players. A career 36.9-percent 3-point shooter entering his age-26 season, Melton’s next contract should have a solid floor and would pay him through his prime seasons.

I’d be shocked if he got as high as $26 million, but cap room teams, especially some of the rebuilding and quasi-rebuilding ones, should be taking a hard look at him in the $20 million a year range. Philadelphia’s own cap room dreams may preclude a return from him, but note that the Sixers have an avenue to keeping him where they keep his $15.2 million cap hold on their sheet, spend the rest of their free-agent money, then ink Melton to a longer-term deal that pays more than the $15.2 million.

3. Isaiah Joe, Oklahoma City (team option): $20,070,036

Joe has a team option that will pay him just $2.1 million for the coming season. He’s one of the biggest bargains in the league. If that’s the case, why on Earth would Oklahoma City decline the option and let him hit free agency?

In a word, cap shenanigans. Oklahoma City can decline his option and keep him on the cap with a $2.1 million cap hold. The Thunder could then use the rest of their estimated $31 million in cap room to sign other players before doubling back to pay Joe. The trick here is that the Thunder would have negotiated beforehand what a long-term deal with Joe might look like, and then paid him less in future seasons to offset the much larger bag he’ll get in 2024-25.

For instance, if you think Joe would have merited a three-year, $55 million deal a year from now, the move might be instead to decline the option and pay him $57 million over four, with a declining salary structure that lets the Thunder manage their cap into the time frame when Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams start what are likely max extensions in 2026-27. As a side benefit, doing so would also give the Thunder a bit more tradeable matching salary to put into future deals outside of their core pieces.

Oklahoma City could also do the same thing, at a lower level, with Aaron Wiggins, who is due $1.9 million in 2024-25 and has a BORD$ value of $9.8 million. The basic idea is the same: Oklahoma City’s roster is cheap now but will suddenly get very expensive in two years, so the Thunder’s cap strategy should be to stuff as much future salary as possible into the time frame before 2026-27.

I alluded to a similar tactic in my Celtics’ wrap-up when I mentioned Sam Hauser, who is in a nearly identical situation in Boston. The difference is that Boston is already a tax team, so the math is much more complex than it is for the Thunder and could have prominent players coming off the books in future seasons that make Hauser’s next contract easier to swallow. That’s why I listed Joe here but not Hauser, who has a similar BORD$ valuation.

4. Malik Monk, Sacramento: $18,307,429

Last week, The Athletic reported that Monk and the Kings agreed to a new four-year deal with $78 million.

Historically, the free-agent market has over-indexed on scoring and placed less value on defense. I figured Monk was almost certain to get paid more than his BORD$ value, given that he’s 26 and finished second in the Sixth Man of the Year voting recently, and that’s the case with a deal that averages $19.5 million per year.

5. Buddy Hield, Philadelphia $15,962,178

Hield is 31 and was a disappointment in Philadelphia after the Sixers traded three second-round picks to get him from Indiana midseason. With the Sixers looking to use cap room, they’re likely to renounce his rights and move on to different options.

Hield doesn’t project as a starter anymore, but he can be a very effective bench option with his volume 3-point shooting. He’ll likely have suitors offering the full nontaxpayer midlevel exception, so the question is whether he can get even more than that from a cap room team. If not, how many years are teams willing to give him at his age?

6. Malik Beasley, Milwaukee: $15,686,235

Beasley is 27 and shot 41.3 percent from 3 last year. While the valuation here seems on the high side, you can understand why there will be a market for him. That’s more likely to happen with exception money after the Bucks scratched Beasley from their starting lineup late last season, partly because of his extremely low shot volume and partly to put a better defender next to Damian Lillard.

Beasley, however, would likely be an effective third wing as a sniper coming off the bench, and he’s extremely gettable, as Milwaukee has no Bird rights on him after he signed a one-year minimum there last summer.

Tier III: Midlevel exception guys

7. Gary Trent Jr., Toronto: $13,634,431

Trent looked like one of the better young shooters in the league two years ago, but his career has gone slightly sideways since then, with his PER of 12.0 last season a career low despite shooting 39.3 percent from 3. His shooting ability will always get teams’ attention, however, and with the Raptors in a rebuild, he might be a target for another team dangling its nontaxpayer midlevel exception (MLE).

8. Talen Horton-Tucker, Utah: $11,726,973

This likely wildly overvalues Horton-Tucker, who has an interesting intersection of age (23) and shot creation but has never put the ball in the basket effectively enough to warrant having it in his hands so much. The eye is drawn first to his iffy 3-ball (29.3 percent career), but the 43.8 percent mark on shots inside the arc last season was arguably the bigger problem. He’d be an upside play for a rebuilding team, especially one with a shot doctor on staff.

9. Josh Okogie, Phoenix (player option): $11,296,116

BORD$ loves defensive players, and Okogie’s value tilts heavily to that side of the floor. In reality, his market is likely closer to the just-above-minimum deal he took a year ago. The interesting part is that Okogie has a player option for $2.96 million, and the Suns would have full Bird rights if he becomes a free agent. In the twisted world of Phoenix second-apron payroll logic, the Suns might want to have him opt out and pay him more, just so they have a matching salary to use in a trade.

10. Gary Harris, Orlando: $9,840,456

Harris has had trouble staying in the lineup, having not played more than 61 games in a season since 2017-18. However, he still provides a low-end 3-and-D option who fits seamlessly into most lineup configurations and doesn’t need the ball to be effective. He’ll likely be a popular target for a short-term deal from teams with the room exception or taxpayer MLE.

Tier IV: More than minimum

11. Luke Kennard, Memphis (team option): $8,933,728

Kennard’s team option for $14.8 million would be an overpay, but the Grizzlies need shooting and would have his Bird rights if they declined the option. One possible strategy, then, would be the “decline and re-sign” move, where he ends up inking a deal closer to, say, two years and $18 million to $20 million. That would help Memphis manage its impending luxury tax situation for this season without further denuding its depth.

12. Eric Gordon, Phoenix (player option): $5,855,203

Because the Suns have no Bird rights on Gordon and are over the second apron, they can offer him only a 20 percent raise on his minimum. Even at 35, Gordon commands more value than that after averaging double figures in Phoenix. Teams limited to the taxpayer MLE, most of which are veteran-laden, “win-now” outfits, will likely have him high on their list.

13. Lonnie Walker IV, Brooklyn: $4,710,320

Walker’s athleticism makes him something of a tease, but he shot 38.4 percent from 3 last season on a minimum deal with the Nets. He’s probably a fringe rotation player, but few veterans in that category have his upside to be more.

14. Jaylen Nowell, Detroit: $4,167,742

Nowell isn’t for everybody, but I’m a bit surprised the league consigned him to the scrap heap last season, playing only 13 total games in two cameos with Memphis and Detroit. His outside shooting and defense are both problematic, but he also had an impressive 2021-22 season as a 22-year old, and frankly, much worse players were granted more opportunity last season.

15. Alec Burks, New York: $4,135,971

Somewhat surprisingly given the market, Burks’ disastrous play as a Knick got very little attention (30.7 percent shooting, including 31.3 percent on 2s, and mind-boggling shot selection). He made up for that when he was resurrected in the playoffs, with New York’s injuries summoning him from the end of the bench and Burks performing to the tune of 14.8 points per game on 50.0 percent shooting in the postseason.

As a soon-to-be 33-year-old gun for hire, Burks’ market may be the minimum or slightly above it, but his scoring makes him a useful fourth or fifth guard to have around in a pinch.

Knicks guard Alec Burks dribbles against Pacers forward Obi Toppin during a playoff game in May. (Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)

Tier V: Minimums

16. Gary Payton II, Warriors (player option)

One possible way the Warriors could have dealt with their luxury tax situation, in part, was by having Payton opt out of his $9.2 million deal for this year and then re-sign for multiple years at a lower number. With the news that he’s opting in, that unlikely option can now be put to rest.

17. Max Christie, Lakers (restricted)

Christie may be the last of his kind: an Early Bird restricted free agent after only signing a two-year deal as a second-round pick. The new second-round pick exception in the 2023 collective bargaining agreement makes a situation like this extremely unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Christie has shown enough promise to be worth bringing back on a low-dollar deal, especially since the Lakers need inexpensive back-end roster guys.

18. Shake Milton, New York

Milton hardly played for New York after being traded by Minnesota and bought out by Detroit. He struggled mightily with the Wolves but had a pretty good year for Philadelphia in 2022-23; at 27, he still should have some good basketball left in him.

19. Josh Richardson, Miami (player option)

One very minor salve for Miami’s luxury tax situation would be for Richardson to opt out of his deal then sign a one-year deal for the veteran minimum; it would save the Heat about $1 million in salary and likely twice that amount in luxury tax. However, it would cost Richardson about $39,000.

20. Evan Fournier, Detroit (team option)

Fournier has a team option for $19 million, and declining it will open up a trove of cap space for the Pistons. After the Knicks kept him nice and fresh the last two years, he should still have value on a veteran minimum deal.

21. Damion Lee, Phoenix (player option)

As with Richardson above, it would help Phoenix quite a bit if Lee would decline his $2.8 million option and re-sign on a one-year vet minimum deal, but he’d lose some money in the process. He surely won’t have a market above the minimum after he missed all of last season.

22. Lester Quinones, Golden State (restricted)

Quinones is 23 and showed the hazy outlines of a possible 3-and-D guy in 37 games with the Warriors in 2023-24. He’s a restricted free agent after they promoted him from his two-way late in the season; he’s also still two-way eligible if the Warriors wanted to keep him in the program but preserve a roster spot.

23. Garrett Temple, Toronto

Toronto’s 38-year old end-of-bench OG played 27 games last season and showed enough to warrant consideration for a roster spot purely for basketball reasons. With all the changes in Toronto, it will be interesting to see if he’s back.

Tier VI: Signed but vulnerable

24 Landry Shamet, Washington (non-guaranteed)

I have Shamet rated as a minimum guy after a meh year off the bench in Washington, but he has an $11 million non-guaranteed deal for the coming season. He’s not a central piece of the rebuild there, but he has value as a walking trade exception, and the Wizards are unlikely to end up close enough to the tax line for his contract to matter. They have until June 29 to decide.

25. Garrison Mathews, Atlanta (team option)

Mathews is more likely than not to return on a bargain deal for $2.2 million that is also non-guaranteed, but there’s a chance the Hawks may need to shave dollars due to the luxury tax.

26. AJ Green, Milwaukee (non-guaranteed)

Milwaukee has until July 8 to waive Green before his contract for $2.1 million guarantees. Given the Bucks’ need for both shooting and inexpensive players, I suspect he’ll be back.

27. Seth Curry, Charlotte (non-guaranteed)

Curry has a Brooklyn connection to incoming GM Jeff Peterson, and the Hornets have until June 27 to guarantee his $4 million deal for the coming season. However, if Miles Bridges leaves, they might need the extra cap space; Charlotte can get to $24 million in room by releasing Curry, Bryce McGowens (below), JT Thor and Aleksej Pokuševski.

Seth Curry drives to the basket past Patrick Beverley. (Benny Sieu / USA Today)

28. Ricky Council IV, Philadelphia (non-guaranteed)

Council made an impression with his defense last season, getting upgraded from a two-way to a roster spot and even snagging some playoff minutes. He has a non-guaranteed deal for $1.9 million next season; even with Philadelphia’s cap-room aspirations this summer, that’s probably too sweet a deal to waive him just to get an extra $730,000 or so in extra space.

29. AJ Lawson, Dallas (non-guaranteed)

Lawson has a non-guaranteed deal for $2.1 million but is likely a keeper after the Mavs promoted him from a two-way last year. His 42 games as a Mav were halfway decent, and he’s young enough (he’ll be 24 this summer) to get better.

30. Stanley Umude, Detroit (team option)

The Pistons are under new management, but Umude’s contract lets them delay the decision; he has a team option, but it’s non-guaranteed, so I imagine they’ll pick up the option, watch him play summer league, then decide. Umude gave a solid performance in his 24 games with the Pistons last season, so if they don’t need the extra $2 million in cap room, it’s not ridiculous to think he might stay.

31. Bryce McGowens, Charlotte (non-guaranteed)

The 2022 second-rounder has a non-guaranteed deal for $2 million in 2024-25. The Hornets are under new management, and McGowens didn’t set the world afire in his first two seasons, so he could be vulnerable. He’s still two-way eligible and might be a good fit in that spot on another team, as he’s still just 21.

32. Lindy Waters, Oklahoma City (team option)

Waters has a non-guaranteed team option for $2.2 million, which means the Thunder will likely pick up the option then waive him later if they end up needing the cap room or the roster spot. That could put Waters in a tricky spot, as he might not hit free agency until after most of the other roster spots have been filled. He’s also two-way eligible with 29 teams, although not with the Thunder.

33. Onuralp Bitim, Chicago (non-guaranteed)

Bitim has a $1.9 million deal that doesn’t start guaranteeing money until opening night. I can’t imagine him being a big part of the Bulls’ plans as they revamp their roster, so he’s likely to be a casualty at some point. He’d be a potential two-way target for another team.

34. DaQuan Jeffries, New York (team option)

As with several players on this list, Jeffries has a non-guaranteed team option, which means New York is likely to pick up the option and then make a decision on the guarantee later. That could end up in Jeffries’ favor, as the Knicks might need to aggregate his contract to make a trade at some point … which would also result in the contract becoming fully guaranteed.

Tier VII: Everyone else

35. Furkan Korkmaz, last seen with Indiana

Waived by Indiana in February after finally being dealt away by the Sixers, Korkmaz’s shooting is mildly interesting, but he likely can make more money in Europe.

36. Jared Rhoden, Detroit (restricted two-way)

Don’t sleep on this guy. He turns 25 this year, has a big, strong frame for a wing and a decent shot, and his results in 31 NBA games over two seasons have been fairly competent. At the very least, Rhoden feels like a plus two-way guy, and he’s possibly more.

37. Trevelin Queen, Orlando (restricted two-way)

Queen is 27 and somehow still two-way eligible. He’s a skinny ball of energy who has struggled to shoot straight but was one of the best players in the G League in 2023-24.

38. Johnny Juzang, Utah (restricted two-way)

His shot making makes him just intriguing enough to stick for another look, especially since he’s 23 and still two-way eligible. Plus, he has a top-five name in the league. We have to keep him around.

(Top photo of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)