Are you ready for the NBA offseason? Because it starts … right now.
While it’s always been technically true that the end of one season signaled preparation for the next, there’s a novel wrinkle this time around thanks to the collective bargaining agreement signed in 2023: Teams can start negotiating with their free agents one day after the season ends.
With NBA commissioner Adam Silver handing over the Larry O’Brien Trophy to Boston Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck just after 11 p.m. Eastern, the curtain goes up on free agency Tuesday morning. Theoretically, players such as Dallas forward Derrick Jones Jr. and Boston center Xavier Tillman Sr. could agree to new contracts with their teams before they even leave the arena.
Previously, teams couldn’t negotiate with free agents until June 30, which still holds for any free agent who didn’t finish the season with his team. (In other words: The Pacers can talk to Pascal Siakam right now but not to Paul George.) Additionally, teams still can’t sign most deals until the moratorium ends on July 6. However, the way the free-agency musical chairs work is that every significant player will have agreed to a contract by that date and will merely need to put pen to paper after the 6th to make it official.
While front offices and agents conspired to make something of a farce of the previous system, announcing complex contractual agreements mere seconds into the alleged negotiating period, there is an authentic timeline-changing component to the latest CBA revision. In addition to having information sooner rather than later, there is the possibility of some free-agent deals being completed and announced (not just whispered through the grapevine) before the draft begins on June 26.
Realistically, I’m guessing we only get a small handful of contracts done between now and the draft’s first round. Generally, it’s not in a player’s interest to just negotiate with his team without seeing what is out there from everybody else, so that could put a bit of a chill on before-market dealmaking.
Nonetheless, a few players seem so likely to remain with their current clubs that the odds of a pre-July resolution seem fairly high. Here are five I’d expect to happen sooner rather than later:
After making the All-Star team at age 23, Maxey is surely getting a max contract from the Sixers, a five-year deal worth a projected $205 million. Regardless of what the Sixers pay him, his cap hold will be $13 million, so it won’t affect Philadelphia’s cap space. (Again, he would agree to this deal but wouldn’t sign it until after the Sixers use the rest of their $51 million in cap room.)
The only haggling points would seem to be the presence and size of a trade kicker, which could be a maximum of 15 percent of the contract value, and whether there is a player option on the fifth season of the deal in 2028-29.
Pascal Siakam, Pacers
The Pacers likely had a strong idea of Siakam’s contract expectations when they traded multiple first-round picks to acquire him midseason. It might not be a five-year max; it seems more likely that it’s only for four years and that it might be at a slight trim from the maximum $42.3 million starting salary he’s eligible to receive in 2024-25. Maybe there’s a partial guarantee in there or some incentives that boost him to the full max. (Incentives can be up to 15 percent of the contract value, so for instance, Siakam could have a $36 million base salary with $6.3 million in incentives for 2024-25.)
Those are the fuzzy points that need clarity before there’s a deal, but in the big picture, Siakam wants to be in Indiana. The Pacers need him back and there isn’t an obvious backup suitor waiting around. They’ll get something done.
Theoretically, Anunoby can discuss an extension with the Knicks because he’s still under contract for next season. However, he will surely decline his player option for a mere $19.9 million and end up nearly doubling his salary on a new deal.
As with Indiana above, New York likely had a strong idea of what the magic number was for Anunoby before acquiring him from Toronto last winter. The fact he is represented by CAA, the unofficial official agency of the Knicks, adds another level to this. Anunoby won’t get a max but might not end up too far from it. I’d look for something in the range of four years and $140 million to $150 million.
While Paul George’s situation seems more likely to be drawn out, Harden’s return feels like a more straightforward proposition: He wants to be back and doesn’t have another obvious landing spot. The Clippers have no realistic alternative to re-signing him and he’s not going to cost them the max. Something in the range of three years and $90 million for the 34-year-old would seem to be the sweet spot.
James isn’t going anywhere, but it feels less certain that he would signal that to the world right away. He might turn the screws on the Lakers during the offseason by dragging his feet on a new deal. (Unless that is, they use the 55th pick in the draft on a certain guard from USC …)
As with Anunoby, James can negotiate an extension since he is signed for next season and would make slightly more money if he opts in for $51.4 million in late June and then extends his deal in August when he becomes eligible to add two years.
However, James can get a no-trade clause if he opts out and then re-signs in L.A. on a new deal, and the salary difference is minimal (three years, a projected $162 million on a new deal; a total of three years and $166 million via an extension). At this stage of his career, I’d expect him to value that no-trade clause much more than the money, because what can you even buy with $4 million these days?
But note that James could guarantee a “no-trade” for the 2024-25 season either way by waiting till late August to sign an extension, which would come with a six-month trade restriction that doesn’t expire until after the trade deadline.
LeBron James can decline his player option for 2024-25 in the next couple of weeks. (Andrew Wevers / USA Today)
Five role players to watch
For a variety of reasons, several role players might also be in a position to agree to return to their current teams before they ever hit the market
Claxton is an unrestricted free agent at 25, which makes him an alluring target for teams needing a starting center. However, he’s also an essential piece for the Nets to keep given that their lack of cap space gives them no viable way to replace him in free agency. (This is what I call the Bird rights trap.)
Claxton would have suitors on the open market and could get offers for crazy money if some of the cap-room teams strike out on their first and second options. As a result, one wonders if Brooklyn would overpay a bit to have a commitment from Claxton before any free-agency dominoes start falling. His price is likely in the four years, $90 million to $100 million range with a player option on the last year.
DeRozan can technically agree to an extension before June 30 rather than a new free-agent contract; the advantage for Chicago would be that he’d be trade-eligible right away if the deal is for no more than two years and $61.5 million. Given that DeRozan will be 35 this year and the Bulls will run into luxury tax issues if they pay him much more than his current $28.3 million salary, that doesn’t seem like a far-fetched endgame.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Nuggets
Caldwell-Pope has a player option for $15.4 million that he’d be likely to decline because he can make in the $20 million to $25 million range annually on a new deal. However, the Nuggets might prefer to keep him locked in on that salary for one more year — which would help with the luxury tax and possibly let them skirt the second apron — and instead sign an extension off that number, even if it overpays him in the out years.
For instance, a four-year, $97 million extension — the maximum he’s eligible to receive — would essentially equal five years and $112 million in free agency for Caldwell-Pope or about $22.4 million a year. That would pay him until age 36 — wild stuff for a fifth option who averaged 10 points a game.
Of course, the Nuggets could just agree to a standard new deal with Caldwell-Pope, but it would seem that for virtually any dollar amount in an agreement, Denver should spread that money further into the future and keep that $15.4 million cap hit in 2024-25. As a result, don’t be shocked to see him opt in to the deal in late June with an extension agreed to and then sign the extension when he becomes eligible on July 16. If he opts out at the end of this month, take it as a sign that he’s probably gone.
The second apron has turned the Bird rights trap into an even more potent weapon for free agents (and their agents). It’s more like a Bird rights incinerator: Phoenix can’t sign anybody for anything more than the minimum to replace O’Neale if he leaves.
As a result, O’Neale has massive leverage to agree to a new deal. At age 31, he might be able to use that power to get three or even four guaranteed years.
Additionally, as with Caldwell-Pope, it’s in Phoenix’s cap-management interest to extend whatever it is paying him over as many years as possible, even if it ends up paying him well past his prime. Don’t be shocked if you see a number that at first seems goofy (four years, $55 million?) because the Suns are stretching his money into less harmful cap years.
Detroit is under new management, but the Pistons had already acquired Fontecchio’s restricted free-agent rights from Utah at the trade deadline with the idea of bringing him back.
It doesn’t seem like that plan should change as Fontecchio has a small cap hold of just $5.2 million. As with Maxey, the Pistons can agree to a deal with him early and then wait to sign him until after using the rest of their projected $64 million wad of cap space. Fontecchio is a useful player, but there won’t be a bidding war here, especially with his restricted status scaring off suitors; something in the neighborhood of three years and $20 million to $25 million seems about right.
(Top photo of OG Anunoby and Tyrese Maxey: Tim Nwachukwu, Sarah Stier / Getty Images)