Sunday, December 22, 2024

NBA overhaul tiers: How close is your favorite team to a title?

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The Boston Celtics snapped a 16-year championship drought on Monday night, defeating the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 of the NBA Finals to claim their record-setting 18th NBA title.

As a result, the 2023-24 NBA season officially is in the books. And, naturally, the 2024-25 offseason instantly got underway.

To capture a snapshot of an offseason already heading into a sprint — in a first for the league, teams could begin agreeing to new contracts and extensions with their own free agents right after the Finals ended — let’s take a holistic look at where all 30 teams stand in their pursuits of a title and the biggest questions they face this summer.

To do so, we divided franchises into 10 different tiers — beginning with the true title contenders before eventually diving into the throes of rebuilding processes around the league. (Note: Teams are organized alphabetically within each tier, and projected salary cap space is via ESPN’s Bobby Marks.)

Jump to a tier:
True title contenders
One move away
On the fringes, with big upside
They are who they are
Emerging playoff threats
Big names, big money, big questions
Postseason party-crashers
Stuck in neutral
Rebuilding around a star
Starting at square one

TRUE TITLE CONTENDERS

Total players under contract: 12
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Four picks, seven swaps

What’s next: After years of knocking on the door while making smart moves to improve the roster, Boston finally broke through and claimed its record-setting 18th NBA title this year. Not surprisingly, that doesn’t leave Boston with many roster questions to answer. One is pretty simple: Derrick White is eligible for a contract extension of up to four years and $126 million, and the expectation is a new long-term deal will get done. Boston’s other decision is a bit more interesting: What will it do with Sam Hauser‘s $2 million team option? Locking in a top-seven rotation player on a bargain deal is good business in the short term, but it will make Hauser an unrestricted free agent next summer. Declining the option, on the other hand, makes Hauser a restricted free agent now — where Boston could match any deal — but also could make him too expensive to keep.


ONE MOVE AWAY

Total players under contract: 12
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Two picks, three swaps

What’s next: The Mavericks completed one of the more remarkable midseason turnarounds in recent NBA history this year, after president of basketball operations Nico Harrison acquired P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline. Derrick Jones Jr. is an unrestricted free agent after signing a minimum deal with Dallas last summer — another impressive move by Harrison. Jones will command a significant raise this offseason after setting career highs virtually across the board in helping the Mavericks make the NBA Finals, but it could be difficult for Dallas to match what he gets on the open market. Tim Hardaway Jr. has an expiring $16.1 million deal and could be packaged with some draft picks to add another impact contributor this summer, too.

Total players under contract: 13
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Two picks, two swaps

What’s next: Denver’s hopes of repeating as champions came to a halt during a Game 7 collapse at home in the conference semifinals, when the Nuggets blew a 20-point lead to Minnesota. Now, the Nuggets enter a complicated offseason when they’ll have to try to keep their group together — especially as Denver approaches the second luxury tax apron.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a 3-and-D wing who could command a raise from his $15.4 million player option, is a free agent. If he isn’t retained, it will be hard for Denver to reasonably replace him. Much of the plan for the summer will revolve around Denver’s young bench, which general manager Calvin Booth has counted on to grow with the team’s stars moving forward. And a potentially massive contract extension could be near for Jamal Murray, who has one year left on his deal.

Total players under contract: 10
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Two picks, two swaps

What’s next: The Timberwolves won a playoff series for just the second time in their 35 years as a franchise, and, like in 2004, won two of them to reach the Western Conference finals. In 2024, Minnesota’s run was sparked by rising young star Anthony Edwards, who could take an even bigger leap forward when he plays with Team USA this summer. The challenge for Minnesota is to sustain that elusive success. Meanwhile, the battle for who will own the team — fought between majority owner Glen Taylor and minority partners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez — rages in the offseason, and the team’s salary commitments continue to skyrocket toward the second apron. At the center of those challenges is the future of Karl-Anthony Towns, who himself admitted he “hopes” to be in Minneapolis moving forward as he begins his supermax contract extension this summer. Kyle Anderson, a key reserve, is a free agent, and it will be difficult for Minnesota to afford to keep him.

Total players under contract: 12
Projected salary cap space: $33 million
Total tradeable first-round picks: 11 picks, seven swaps

What’s next: Before the season, Thunder general manager Sam Presti talked about the need for this team to “finish its breakfast.” Oklahoma City responded by becoming the youngest No. 1 seed in league history, and with OKC’s seemingly limitless haul of draft picks and plenty of cap space, the Thunder can go any direction they want this summer. On Thursday, the Thunder showed it’s time for them to take the next step by landing Alex Caruso from the Chicago Bulls for Josh Giddey, replacing a player who was benched in the postseason for one who could close games for the Thunder next spring. Presti has also downplayed the need for OKC to focus on adding rebounding — the Thunder were a bottom-5 team on the boards in 2023-24 — but has indicated there will be a push to remain faithful to the five-out offensive system the Thunder have employed.


ON THE FRINGES, WITH BIG UPSIDE

Total players under contract: 11
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Nine picks, seven swaps

What’s next: The Knicks had a magical season, winning a playoff series in back-to-back years for the first time in almost a quarter century and nearly making it to the Eastern Conference finals before injuries decimated their roster. Now, they enter an offseason full of questions as they try to push into the inner circle of title contenders. Unrestricted free agent OG Anunoby, whom New York traded for midseason, will likely command a contract of more than $30 million per season. Center Isaiah Hartenstein could be a sought-after free agent this summer, and New York only has Early Bird rights to keep him, potentially meaning they could be outbid for his services. Meanwhile, New York still has a treasure trove of draft picks waiting to be used if the right star becomes available, and could also look to extend both Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle this offseason.

Total players under contract: 4
Projected salary cap space: $65 million
Total tradeable first-round picks: Five picks, three swaps

What’s next: Only one player — 2023 Most Valuable Player Joel Embiid — has a guaranteed contract on the roster at the moment. All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey will be returning to Philly on a max contract, but president of basketball operations Daryl Morey has several draft picks and swaps to use in trades to put another star alongside them. As a result, the 76ers’ offseason could go a number of ways. Sources told ESPN that Philly would like to bring back Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Nicolas Batum after their strong play down the stretch and in the playoffs, and with the uncertainty surrounding forward De’Anthony Melton‘s back injury.


THEY ARE WHO THEY ARE

Total players under contract: 11
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: One pick, two swaps

What’s next: There is one huge question involving the Clippers this summer: What will happen with Paul George? If LeBron James re-signs with the Lakers, George will be the top unrestricted free agent on the market. After LA signed Kawhi Leonard to a three-year, $150 million extension earlier this season, will George agree to a similar deal, or will he need a max offer to stay? Among other key roster questions: the free agency of James Harden — a saga that turned messy last season in Philadelphia — and sixth man Russell Westbrook, who has a player option for 2024-25. The Clippers looked like championship contenders at times last season, only to fall in the first round with Leonard suffering another injury.

Total players under contract: 12
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Three picks, five swaps

What’s next: It’s already another offseason full of drama in Lakerland — beginning with a coaching hire. Now that the Lakers have agreed to a four-year contract with JJ Redick, general manager Rob Pelinka’s focus will shift to figuring out whether LeBron James will opt into his contract, or whether he’ll opt out and negotiate a new contract to presumably remain in Los Angeles. D’Angelo Russell also has a contract option and Max Christie, one of the team’s few intriguing young players, is a restricted free agent. And, whatever the Lakers do, they still have a lot of ground to make up to catch their competition in the West — which is the expectation, as it always is in L.A.

Total players under contract: 10
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: One pick, one swap

What’s next: Like other teams headed for the second luxury tax apron this offseason, Milwaukee won’t have access to anything more than minimum contracts to augment the roster. The Bucks also have to see what happens with minimum free agents Malik Beasley, Jae Crowder and Patrick Beverley, all of whom could be brought back. But other than the 23rd and 33rd picks in this year’s draft, and the 2031 first- and second-round picks that become available to be dealt once the new league year begins on July 1, there’s little for the Bucks to use in trades, either.

Total players under contract: 11
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Two picks, one swap

What’s next: After a disappointing sweep at the hands of the Timberwolves, the Suns fired coach Frank Vogel and replaced him with Mike Budenholzer. His task will be to maximize the star trio of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, and the many minimum-salaried pieces surrounding them. Already well over the second luxury tax apron, Phoenix has to dig even deeper into owner Mat Ishbia’s pockets to re-sign forward Royce O’Neale, plus wait to see whether Eric Gordon will pick up his player option. Then, the Suns must dive back into the minimum free agent market to manufacture some depth and push Phoenix farther up the standings even after Durant’s healthiest season in years.


EMERGING PLAYOFF THREATS

Total players under contract: 11
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Two picks, three swaps

What’s next: The Cavaliers won a playoff series without LeBron for the first time in three decades, but it wasn’t enough to keep Cleveland from firing coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Now, not only is team president Koby Altman working through options for the franchise’s next coach, but the Cavaliers also are waiting to see if Donovan Mitchell will agree to a long-term contract extension with only one guaranteed year left on his deal. If he doesn’t, Mitchell could change teams this summer, making his extension choice one of the first, and biggest, offseason dominos to watch. Otherwise, Isaac Okoro will be a restricted free agent who could have some open-market interest due to his defensive prowess on the wing, Beyond roster decisions, a new coach will have to come up with a plan to maximize Cleveland’s four current pillars: Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

Total players under contract: 11
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Two picks, five swaps

What’s next: Indiana is coming off its best season in a decade, having returned to the Eastern Conference finals after beating the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks in the first two rounds. The Pacers have an eventful summer ahead, even after signing star forward Pascal Siakam to a maximum contract after Indiana acquired him in a blockbuster midseason trade. Indiana, never a typically active free agency destination, has some interesting decisions to make with its own players. Obi Toppin, who had some impressive moments in the playoffs, is a restricted free agent, while Myles Turner is extension-eligible and Andrew Nembhard, one of the breakout stars of the playoffs, could potentially see his deal renegotiated and extended, though he still has another season before potentially hitting restricted free agency.

Total players under contract: 12
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Seven picks, seven swaps

What’s next: There might not be an NBA team with more to juggle this summer than New Orleans. Brandon Ingram has one year remaining on his contract, and the Pelicans have to figure out whether they can get an extension done, or if they need to trade him. Meanwhile, Trey Murphy III is up for an extension, and both Jonas Valanciunas and Naji Marshall are unrestricted free agents. The Pelicans will also be looking to avoid going into the luxury tax for the first time as a franchise.

Total players under contract: 11
Projected salary cap space: $32 million
Total tradeable first-round picks: Six picks, seven swaps

What’s next: After returning to the playoffs and pushing the Cavaliers to seven games, Orlando has a lot of decisions to make this summer. Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs are both up for rookie extensions, Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris will both be free agents and Orlando will also potentially have enough cap space to chase shooting and playmaking upgrades.

Total players under contract: 11
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Three picks, five swaps

What’s next: The Kings followed their first playoff appearance in close to two decades by falling into the play-in mix this season and losing to the Pelicans. The goal for Sacramento now is to reestablish itself as a top-six team in the Western Conference, and it began that process by getting Malik Monk back into the fold with a four-year, $78 million deal that was agreed upon Thursday, sources told ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Getting back Monk on that deal, however, has Sacramento on pace to be in the luxury tax, which likely signals more offseason work for the Kings and their front office. Another option to explore is moving veterans Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter, plus draft capital, in a trade to supplement the roster.


BIG NAMES, BIG MONEY, BIG QUESTIONS

Total players under contract: 11
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Two picks, six swaps

What’s next: The Warriors re-signed Draymond Green last summer and extended coach Steve Kerr earlier this season, meaning Golden State’s biggest summer storyline is the future of free agent Klay Thompson. The sharpshooter averaged nearly 18 points and 39% from 3-point range, showing he’s still a good player. He’s also just no longer a player who should command a maximum contract. Meanwhile, Thompson’s situation could impact what happens with Chris Paul and his $30 million for the 2024-25 season, which according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks is non-guaranteed until June 28.

Total players under contract: 12
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Three picks, three swaps

What’s next: Jimmy Butler has one guaranteed year remaining on his deal, meaning this is the time that he would, typically, get an extension. But with the Heat bumping up against the second apron, and coming off an 8-seed and first-round loss, do they want to offer massive money to a player who will start next season at 35 years old? Butler’s status is one of the offseason’s biggest storylines to follow, and how it plays out will dictate Miami’s short-term future.


PARTY-CRASHERS

Total players under contract: 12
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Five picks, six swaps

What’s next: Coach Ime Udoka’s first season in Houston was a success, as the young Rockets flirted with the play-in until the season’s final days, then leapt to the third spot in the lottery. That’ll give Houston a chance to add to its young core of Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Green and Amen Thompson, and then the Rockets will also have significant cap space to pursue veteran upgrades via free agency or trade. Expect Houston, which wants to progress to “Phase 3” of its rebuild, to be aggressive this summer.

Total players under contract: 13
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Five picks, seven swaps

What’s next: Last season was a lost one in Memphis, with Ja Morant‘s suspension and season-ending shoulder surgery dooming the Grizzlies to the lottery. But with Morant healthy, and a top-10 pick in tow, the Grizzlies are hoping to power their way back into the Western Conference playoff mix next season. To do so, they have one significant question to answer this summer: Who will play center? After trading Steven Adams, there isn’t an obvious full-time answer. (Brandon Clarke, back from missing most of the season with an Achilles tear, will be part of it.) Another decision to watch in Memphis: Luke Kennard‘s $14.7 million team option. Declining it could give the Grizzlies some wiggle room to use the full midlevel exception.


STUCK IN NEUTRAL

Total players under contract: 12
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Three picks, four swaps

What’s next: Atlanta beat the odds to leapfrog to the top of this year’s draft, which, even in an underwhelming lottery, is still a boon for a Hawks team that hoped to be firmly in the playoffs before falling in the play-in. But beyond deciding whom to take at the top of the draft, the other obvious question looming over the Hawks is whether to move on Dejounte Murray or Trae Young after the blockbuster trade to acquire Murray from the Spurs has delivered two early postseason exits.

Total players under contract: 11
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Seven picks, four swaps

What’s next: General Manager Sean Marks hired his fourth coach in eight years when he tapped former Kings assistant Jordi Fernandez to run the show in Brooklyn after a disastrous final two-thirds of the season, which saw Brooklyn close with a 17-35 mark over the final 52 games. The Nets’ biggest roster priority this summer revolves around unrestricted free agent center Nic Claxton, who Marks and Fernandez said they believe can be the “Defensive Player of the Year.”

Total players under contract: 11
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Three picks, six swaps

What’s next: Bulls executive Arturas Karnisovas laid out the expectations during his end-of-season news conference when he declared, “We have to somehow generate an additional 10 wins.” What’s unclear, exactly, is how Chicago is going to do that. The Bulls turning one of their best players, Alex Caruso, into Josh Giddey on Thursday is not the move a team trying to add wins next season would make. But it could potentially signal that a busy offseason is coming for Chicago, as Giddey, incumbent point guard Coby White and Zach LaVine all can’t realistically play together. DeMar DeRozan, meanwhile, is an unrestricted free agent this summer and will command a hefty price to stay. Injured guard Lonzo Ball continues to be sidelined, and Patrick Williams is a restricted free agent after foot surgery ended his season in February.


REBUILDING AROUND A STAR

Total players under contract: 14
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Six picks, seven swaps

What’s next: It has been an eventful first year for new owners Gabe Plotkin and Rick Schnall, who made a couple of impressive deals at the trade deadline and have hired a new general manager (Jeff Peterson, from the Nets) and head coach (Charles Lee, from the Celtics). Now that the new executive team is in place, the Hornets have some decisions to make this summer — beginning with Miles Bridges, who is an unrestricted free agent.

Total players under contract: 12
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Nine picks, seven swaps

What’s next: San Antonio is headed for one of the league’s most intriguing offseasons because of Victor Wembanyama and how the 7-foot-4 phenom could impact the Spurs and their plans. A long-term answer at point guard is required, which could come either via trade or with the fourth or eighth pick in this year’s draft. San Antonio could continue to focus on a slow build, prioritizing youth and a longer-term vision alongside Wembanyama, or it could speed things up some by adding veteran talent alongside the Rookie of the Year and the Spurs’ other young star, guard Devin Vassell.

Total players under contract: 10
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Six picks, seven swaps

What’s next: It was a season of change in the Six, with longtime franchise stalwarts Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby being moved on to officially hand the team over to All-Star forward Scottie Barnes. With the costly Jakob Poeltl trade now behind Toronto after giving up the eighth pick in this year’s draft, the Raptors now focus on getting a new contract done with Immanuel Quickley, the team’s point guard of the present and future, as well as deciding what to do with Bruce Brown‘s $23 million team option. He could be an attractive trade candidate, as well as a potential fit for staying in Toronto if the franchise looks to be competitive next season.

Total players under contract: 10
Projected salary cap space: $31 million
Total tradeable first-round picks: 11 picks, five swaps

What’s next: Danny Ainge acquired numerous players and draft picks for Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert two summers ago — led by All-Star Lauri Markkanen — but the Jazz still feel like they’re a little bit stuck. They have some intriguing young players, such as Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks and Walker Kessler, and have the 10th pick in this year’s draft. They should also attempt to get an extension done with Markkanen this summer, which would likely include a renegotiation of his upcoming $18 million salary. But with the Jazz still well off the pace in the increasingly difficult Western Conference, it’s going to take some more strokes of luck to move Utah up the standings in a meaningful way.


STARTING AT SQUARE ONE

Total players under contract: 11
Projected salary cap space: $62 million
Total tradeable first-round picks: Three picks, four swaps

What’s next: The Pistons are the only NBA team without a playoff win over the past 16 seasons, and they have the fewest regular-season wins (466) of all 30 franchises over that span. To change that, Detroit hired Trajan Langdon away from the Pelicans last month to oversee basketball operations, and now he has to decide what direction to take the Pistons this summer with plenty of cap space and another top-five draft pick to add to an already interesting group of young players.

Total players under contract: 14
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Five picks, three swaps

What’s next: Rebuilding teams are absolutely not supposed to be paying luxury tax bills, and, yet, that’s exactly where the Trail Blazers find themselves. As of now, Portland is projected to be several million dollars into the tax, which means some of Portland’s more expensive veterans could be on the move over the next few weeks. (Malcolm Brogdon‘s $22.5 million expiring contract could be an option.) The other storyline to watch in Portland: the next steps for former lottery picks Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe.

Total players under contract: 13
Projected salary cap space: None
Total tradeable first-round picks: Five picks, five swaps

What’s next: The Wizards finally, truly, are starting from scratch under Michael Winger and Will Dawkins. They still need to hire a coach, with interim coach Brian Keefe a serious candidate for the job, and then have to determine what to do with the second pick in this year’s draft. With lots of expiring contracts on their roster and a willingness to take on long-term money, look for Washington to continue to add to its asset base with deals like its biggest from last summer, when D.C. absorbed Jordan Poole‘s contract to add a first-round pick.

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