The quarterback carousel is always in motion. And while many NFL teams know where they stand at signal-caller heading into the 2024 season, there are plenty facing uncertainty at football’s most important position.
The Vikings have to make a decision regarding Kirk Cousins, a 35-year-old free agent coming off a torn right Achilles and whose contract voids March 13. Their NFC North rivals in Chicago have to choose between continuing with 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields or drafting a rookie with the No. 1 pick in April. Then there are the Falcons, who need a quarterback to stabilize an otherwise strong roster. Big moves are ahead.
So before the 2024 offseason kicks into gear, we’ll attempt to solve the quarterback puzzle by predicting Week 1 starters for all 32 NFL teams. We distributed each team’s quarterback situation into four categories: locked in (starters who are virtually guaranteed to remain with the team they played for in 2023), decent bets (players who should return as starters but aren’t 100% locks), searching for a vet (teams looking to bring in an established QB) and rookie landing spots (teams that need a first-year QB to step in immediately). Let’s dive in.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Predicted 2024 starter: Kyler Murray
Status: Decent bet
I once thought it would be an upset if Murray was the Cardinals’ starting quarterback in 2024. But the Cardinals won their way out of the top three draft spots, and it now looks like Murray will be around for the long haul. His play after returning from a torn right ACL last season was a little disappointing — he had a 47.0 QBR (ranked 22nd) in eight games and posted a minus-3% completion percentage over expectation, an NFL Next Gen Stats metric he usually excels in — but that might be a product of returning from said injury.
Predicted 2024 starter: Kirk Cousins
Status: Searching for a vet
Atlanta makes sense for Cousins, assuming he’s fully recovered from the torn Achilles he suffered in Week 8. He’d be going from one former Sean McVay assistant (Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell) to another (Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson). And the Falcons are closer to contending than most think. The roster is fairly strong and was held back by the play of quarterbacks Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. With a new coaching staff and a proven veteran quarterback in Cousins, the Falcons wouldn’t only be NFC South favorites — they could win a playoff game or two.
Predicted 2024 starter: Lamar Jackson
Status: Locked in
Jackson is the reigning MVP after throwing for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns while running for 821 yards and five more scores. And to think, a year ago no one wanted to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. (Spare me the notion that it was pointless because the Ravens would have matched — it wouldn’t have cost other teams anything if Baltimore matched, and we’ll never know whether the Ravens would have because no one tried.)
Predicted 2024 starter: Josh Allen
Status: Locked in
The Bills are blessed with the best quarterback on the planet not named Patrick Mahomes. The 2023 season ended in crushing fashion, but the Bills’ Super Bowl window is always open with Allen taking snaps. Allen, who had a 69.6 QBR while throwing for 4,306 yards and 29 touchdown passes, was the most productive rushing quarterback in the NFL this year, too, running for 524 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Predicted 2024 starter: Bryce Young
Status: Locked in
Young’s draft price keeps him locked in. A Year 1 disaster (33.4 QBR and 11 touchdown passes on 527 attempts) isn’t fatal for a quarterback’s career. (Jared Goff had a horrendous rookie season for the Rams in 2016 before turning into a Pro Bowl-caliber player.) But it does cause Young’s clock to start ticking. If he doesn’t show significant improvement in 2024, the Panthers will be looking for a new quarterback.
Predicted 2024 starter: Caleb Williams
Status: Rookie landing spot
We don’t know what the Bears could potentially receive for the No. 1 overall pick, but I have a hard time imagining them trading out of that spot for a second straight year. To trade the pick would mean hitching their wagon to Fields, who hasn’t had an above-average season yet in his career. So much of roster building is getting a team in the position the Bears are currently in, where they can draft a high-end QB prospect without trading up — which is what I expect them to do with USC’s Williams.
Predicted 2024 starter: Joe Burrow
Status: Locked in
Burrow was hobbled by a strained right calf in the preseason before missing the final seven games with a torn ligament in his right wrist, making 2023 a lost season. But he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when healthy, and he should return to that status in 2024. Having him back on the field will make Cincinnati a contender again.
Predicted 2024 starter: Deshaun Watson
Status: Decent bet
Because he’s in Year 3 of his fully guaranteed, $230 million contract, Watson will almost certainly be the Browns’ quarterback. But if I were Cleveland, am I really running it back with Watson and potentially wasting this roster again? The problem is the Browns’ alternatives are severely limited given Watson’s cap number and their lack of a first-round pick, which they dealt to Houston to obtain Watson. I could at least imagine the Browns as a long shot Justin Fields destination because he can be acquired without a first-round pick and wouldn’t take up significant salary-cap space. Who knows, perhaps coach Kevin Stefanski could unlock his upside?
Predicted 2024 starter: Dak Prescott
Status: Locked in
Ignore any noise that suggests Prescott was the problem for Dallas this past season — heck, even in its playoff loss to the Packers, it was the defense that couldn’t contain Jordan Love. Prescott ranked second to Brock Purdy in QBR (72.7) and finished second in the MVP balloting behind Lamar Jackson.
Predicted 2024 starter: J.J. McCarthy
Status: Rookie landing spot
Even with Russell Wilson having $39 million guaranteed to him in 2024, it makes sense for Denver to cut him because if they don’t, they’ll fully guarantee his $37 million salary in 2025. With the No. 12 pick, Denver sits in the middle of a stretch of teams — between the Vikings (No. 11) and Raiders (No. 13) — that also might be in the market for a rookie QB. I have Denver choosing McCarthy (Michigan), though it’s a bit early to accurately decipher who could go where in the middle of the first round.
Predicted 2024 starter: Jared Goff
Status: Locked in
Lions coach Dan Campbell said it right to his quarterback in Detroit’s locker room after beating the Rams in the playoffs: “You’re good enough for f—ing Detroit, Jared Goff.” Indeed, he is. Goff has flourished in the Lions’ offense under coordinator Ben Johnson, who eschewed multiple head-coaching opportunities to stay in Detroit. The Lions’ offense should continue to be dangerous.
Predicted 2024 starter: Jordan Love
Status: Locked in
The Packers’ big risk in moving on from future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers and turning the offense over to Love paid major, major dividends. The 2020 first-round pick became a top quarterback by the end of the season, which culminated in Love registering the highest postseason QBR game in the metric’s history (99.3 vs. the Cowboys in the wild-card round). Green Bay seems to have found another franchise quarterback.
Predicted 2024 starter: C.J. Stroud
Status: Locked in
The Texans are in great shape with Stroud for 2024 and beyond. The No. 2 overall pick was excellent in his rookie season (4,108 yards passing, 23 touchdowns, 57.5 QBR), and there’s potential for much more going forward. Plus, he’s supported by excellent young receivers he can grow with in Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
Predicted 2024 starter: Anthony Richardson
Status: Locked in
When he was on the field in 2023, the No. 4 draft pick flashed potential. But Richardson struggled to stay healthy, managing to complete only one of his four starts before his rookie season ended due to an AC joint sprain in his right shoulder. His ability to stay active remains a concern, but Richardson also clearly provides upside and hope to Indianapolis going forward.
Predicted 2024 starter: Trevor Lawrence
Status: Locked in
Lawrence didn’t take the expected step up in 2023, ranking 17th in QBR (56.1), but he’s arguably the least of Jacksonville’s problems heading into next season. Jacksonville is running it back with the same offensive coaching staff, and at minimum, they have to protect Lawrence better. (The Jaguars ranked 29th in pass block win rate last season.)
Predicted 2024 starter: Patrick Mahomes
Status: Locked in
Despite a lack of high-quality wide receivers, Mahomes just led the Chiefs to their second straight Super Bowl championship and their third title in five years. He’s the best quarterback on the planet and makes the Chiefs a Super Bowl threat every year, no matter what.
Predicted 2024 starter: Michael Penix Jr.
Status: Rookie landing spot
Like the division rival Broncos, the Raiders need a quarterback and sit in a draft position where taking one makes a lot of sense. I’ve opted to pair them with Penix (Washington) here, in part because they’re behind Denver and Minnesota in the draft order and also because Penix was the sixth quarterback off the board in Matt Miller’s latest mock draft. But the Raiders might not need to pick Penix at No. 13; they could trade down and nab him later in Round 1 or take him in Round 2 if the board falls in their favor.
Predicted 2024 starter: Justin Herbert
Status: Locked in
The Chargers are blessed with one of the game’s elite quarterbacks but don’t have much to show for it. Can Jim Harbaugh unlock the next level of Herbert, who has the most passing yards through the first four years of a career (17,223) in NFL history, and bring success to the franchise? That’s the question for 2024 and beyond.
Predicted 2024 starter: Matthew Stafford
Status: Locked in
Stafford proved in 2023 that he’s still got it (3,965 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 63.5 QBR), and with the Rams adding young talent in players such as receiver Puka Nacua and defensive tackle Kobie Turner, they’re a threat again. Stafford, Sean McVay and the Rams’ wideouts will make this offense dangerous in 2024.
Predicted 2024 starter: Tua Tagovailoa
Status: Locked in
Though there might be some questions about whether Tagovailoa is the right quarterback in Miami for the long haul, he’s certainly the right guy for the Dolphins right now. The Dolphins ranked fourth in EPA per dropback in 2023 with Tagovailoa, who threw for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns while registering a 60.8 QBR.
Predicted 2024 starter: Russell Wilson
Status: Searching for a vet
Let’s call this Wilson plus Oregon’s Bo Nix. Cousins might end up back in Minnesota, but I could see the Vikings balking at giving him a multiyear guaranteed contract. If he’s out of the picture, Wilson is probably the next-best short-term solution. (I’m assuming the Bears wouldn’t deal Justin Fields inside their division.) But don’t be surprised if the Vikings go after multiple players to fill Cousins’ void. If they do, acquiring Wilson and drafting a QB at No. 11 makes the most sense.
Predicted 2024 starter: Jayden Daniels
Status: Rookie landing spot
Maybe the Patriots will trade down or become tantalized by Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and take him with the No. 3 pick. But this is a team that needs a quarterback after suffering with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe last season and is in range to get a high-end rookie without trading up. That’s usually too good a position for teams to pass up, and LSU’s Daniels fits here.
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Predicted 2024 starter: Derek Carr
Status: Decent bet
Given that Carr has $30 million fully guaranteed to him in 2024 (with roughly $23 million recently converted into a signing bonus), he’s almost certainly locked in for New Orleans. Carr was OK in 2023, but the fact that the Saints couldn’t win the meager NFC South had to be considered a failure. Still, despite having some rocky moments, Carr ranked 16th in QBR (56.5).
Predicted 2024 starter: Daniel Jones
Status: Decent bet
The Giants erred when they signed Jones to a deal with $82 million fully guaranteed last offseason after one good NFL season. The 2023 season, in which Jones played six games with a 36 QBR before tearing his right ACL, was disappointing. The Giants will likely stick with Jones to start the season, especially since cutting him would incur a $68.8 million dead money charge, but you never know.
Predicted 2024 starter: Aaron Rodgers
Status: Locked in
The Jets hope to finally see positive returns from the great Rodgers experiment that lasted four plays in 2023. While there’s little doubt who will start at QB for the Jets, plenty of questions remain. Will Rodgers be the same coming off his left Achilles injury? Can Nathaniel Hackett’s offense work? Do the Jets find a second pass-catching playmaker in the offseason to join receiver Garrett Wilson and, critically, will they be able to protect Rodgers?
Predicted 2024 starter: Jalen Hurts
Status: Locked in
Hurts disappointed in the second half of 2023 — his QBR from the Eagles’ ninth game on was a mere 51.0 — but the hope is new Philadelphia offensive coordinator Kellen Moore can get Hurts and the Eagles’ offense back in rhythm.
Predicted 2024 starter: Justin Fields
Status: Searching for a vet
The Steelers’ next franchise quarterback is not currently on the roster. Kenny Pickett hasn’t shown enough growth in two seasons, and even though Mason Rudolph played well in a few starts down the stretch, he hasn’t been consistent enough in his career to be a safe option going forward. That they managed 10 wins last season despite their weak QB group makes them a candidate to deal for Fields, who could be a decent fit with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
Predicted 2024 starter: Brock Purdy The 49ers fell short of a Super Bowl title yet again, but Purdy answered a lot of questions in 2023, leading the NFL with a 72.8 QBR. The debate will rage on: Is Purdy a star or simply a product of his environment? The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Purdy is a capable starter who can execute Kyle Shanahan’s offense at a very high level — the 49ers had the NFL’s top offense, after all — even if he isn’t an elite QB in a vacuum. That’s plenty good enough to be the starter in San Francisco, especially at his incredibly cheap price ($1.004 million cap charge in 2024). Predicted 2024 starter: Geno Smith With former coach Pete Carroll gone, the Seahawks’ future at quarterback is slightly murky. Smith is under contract at a very reasonable price, with a $26.4 million cap charge in 2024. Because of that and generally solid play — he ranked 14th in QBR (59.5) and had a plus-2% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats — I think he’ll keep the job in the short term. But Seattle might keep its eye out for a longer-term solution. Predicted 2024 starter: Baker Mayfield Mayfield is a free agent, but a return to Tampa Bay should be attractive for both parties. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick exceeded expectations in 2023 with a very solid 54.0 QBR (ranked 18th), and the Bucs don’t draft until pick No. 26, which might leave them out of the running for the top six QB prospects. Even if one falls and Tampa Bay takes him, there’s a decent chance Mayfield would begin the season as the starter. I wonder whether the Bucs would be so eager to bring Mayfield back had they missed the playoffs, but we’ll never know. Predicted 2024 starter: Will Levis By default, the Titans are committed to Levis as the 2023 second-round pick enters his second NFL season. I think that’s how it will end up, but Levis posted a 33 QBR in 2023, and the Titans sit at the No. 7 spot in April’s draft. If it were me, I’d take a long look at the quarterbacks available. Predicted 2024 starter: Drake Maye The Commanders lost their final eight games to move into the No. 2 slot in a quarterback-heavy draft, absolving them of the decision of whether to give Sam Howell another shot. Now they’ll get a top quarterback prospect — perhaps UNC’s Maye — without having to trade up and can keep Howell as a solid backup. Washington’s stock is on the rise.
Status: Locked in
Status: Decent bet
Status: Decent bet
Status: Decent bet
Status: Rookie landing spot