Joe Judge is separated from it now, having left the New England Patriots in January and gone to Ole Miss to join an old buddy, Lane Kiffin, with whom he’s connected through Nick Saban.
But the seasoned NFL special teams coach was in the trenches for all the planning, the trial and error, and the meetings and negotiating surrounding the kickoff play over the past seven years. As he recalls it, it was February 2017 when the league invited a group of such assistants, one from each division, to a meeting to discuss the future of the play at that year’s combine. In ’18, the rules changed. Then they changed again. And now, again, this time much more dramatically.
So I figured with one of the most radical shifts to the game itself in years on the horizon, talking to Judge—now unencumbered by the competitive constraints that have most special teams coaches keeping their plans in their figurative back pockets—would help answer one of the biggest questions I’ve got for training camp.
What the heck is the new kickoff going to look like? And, more to the point, will it work as the NFL and the coaches who came to this solution intend it to?
“I hope so,” Judge said, from his summer vacation last week. “There’s been enough thought put into the play, enough planning and enough talking through the situations, the strategy and the unintended consequences. I think the coaches who have worked on this have done a really good job. I think it’s given an opportunity for the play to have an impact because you have to play the play. Ultimately in football, I’m a big fan of giving teams opportunities to win in different ways.
“This adds one more element that a team can invest in and make a strength and win with. I do think it’s going to be a success.”
Soon, we’ll have answers.
We’re just three weeks from the de facto end of the NFL summer.
Come the week of July 22, everyone will be in camp and focused on the fall. And with that in mind, as I start my own (relative) unplugging from pro football, we’ll use my final Monday column of the 2024 offseason to give you a look at what I think we’ll be talking about once the helmets are on, the chin straps are buckled and the bags are out of the shed.
Again, what the kickoff will look like in August, September and October is a big one, if one that’s been backburnered a bit since the owners voted the new rules through in March.
The first thing that’s been obvious in talking to different people the past few months about the kickoff changes is that uncertainty is the only certainty ahead. No one has a great handle on how it’s going to play out.
For those who haven’t been paying as close attention, we can start with a refresher. The proposal that was voted through calls for the kicker to kick off from his own 35-yard line, with the rest of the kickoff team having one foot on the return team’s 40. The return team will have nine or 10 players in the “setup zone,” between the 35 and 30, with at least seven having one foot on the 35. A maximum of two returners can be in the “landing zone” inside the 20.
The kicker can’t cross the 50, and neither the other 10 guys on the kickoff team nor the nine or 10 return-team guys in the setup zone can move, until the ball touches a player or the ground in the landing zone or end zone. If the ball hits the ground short of the landing zone, it’s treated like a kickoff out of bounds and the return team starts at its own 40. If the ball hits in the landing zone, and goes into the end zone and is downed, it goes to the 20. If the ball gets to the end zone and is downed, or goes through the end zone on the fly, it goes to the 30.
No fair catches. Onside kicks have to be declared and can only happen in the fourth quarter, with the kicking team behind.
It’s not just a different dynamic. It’s a different play altogether, with different challenges.
In attacking the uncertainty, special teams coaches experimented and tinkered in the spring, but the reality is that the rules for OTAs and June minicamps hardly give anyone in the third phase of the game a real look—as is the case with line play on offense and defense, it’s hard to see much without contact. So that’s where we’ll start on the takeaways from my conversation with Judge, who’s done his own research in talking to his old counterparts.
• No one knows anything yet. These guys can watch XFL tape (which had a similar set of rules that NFL folks modified) until they’re blue in the face. Until they get to see real NFL athletes moving, and colliding, in this format, in full-contact situations, they won’t know.
“The spring is such an unknown,” Judge says. “The rules don’t allow you to really work the play. You’re not going 11 vs. 11 kick return. You can’t simulate the contact, can’t simulate the speed of the play. All those things give you avenues you have to address when the pads go on in camp. Training camp, competitive practices and the preseason will all be huge for teams to get a base of the techniques to really implement the kicks they’ll use with their kickers and how much flexibility they have within the system, scheme-wise, during games.”
That, Judge continues, will almost certainly spill into the season. “Around Week 5, you’re going to start seeing it level out a little bit. Teams are going to look around the league and see what’s really working, what they can take from other teams that are having success, what they’re doing that fits their own personnel. You’re going to see, not uniform, but similar schemes evolving and developing.”
• Because of that, early on, gambling will be on the play, not with the players. There’s been a lot of conjecture over how increased importance of the kickoff could lead to the eventual reintegration of more important players as return men. And maybe, eventually, that will happen. Teams will, to be sure, give work to a multitude of guys, like always, during camp. But during the early experimentation period, it’s less likely you’ll see big stars back there.
“I don’t know if you’re going to see it right out of the gate,” Judge says. “We always knew to beware of Tyreek Hill going back deep, if it was a critical situation. It’s not going to be every time. You could see it later in the season. I do think teams will want to see it through the preseason and early in the season, How is this play factoring out? Then if you can turn around and say it really hasn’t been big collisions, it really hasn’t been nasty contact, then teams may be more likely to say O.K. go ahead and use so-and-so.”
• As for the other guys on the field, you may see more defensive players out there, which could affect the composition of 46- and 53-man rosters. The reason? Well, as Judge sees it, because the “space and speed” are being toned down, covering a kick will set up more like a conventional defensive snap does.
“You could play in the past with offensive players if it was a speed player who, even if he wasn’t great at open-field tackling, could disrupt and flush it to somebody who could make the tackle and clean it up, or a big tight end you’re really relying on more to play through double teams and blocks and hold lane integrity,” he says. “If the guy’s not really efficient as an offensive player, taking on and getting off blocks, it’s going to be hard to play him.
“This is going to be much more close-contact, more linebacker technique coming downhill and shedding a block to get the ball carrier. You used to have natural layers in the coverage. You’d have your penetrators, your Matt Slaters of the world, and a linebacker naturally playing off him. That would give you the natural levels that, if the first level guy missed the tackle, someone was folding over to make a tackle. Think the linebacker missed a tackle, there’s a safety behind him, because everyone’s on the same level now.”
• The idea of a player like Justin Reid kicking is fun, but carries risk, too. If you missed it, the Kansas City Chiefs, and veteran special teams coach Dave Toub, had discussed using their starting safety (who’s got a strong soccer background) to kick off, because the kicker figures to be a bigger part of the play as a tackler.
“It’s a really interesting concept,” Judge says. “Dave’s a really good coach, and I know he’s going to do what’s best for the team. Kicking’s not as easy as people are going to mark it down to be. Justin has a really good soccer background. He’s a unique player. I’m not saying anything about him. … [But] there’s a history. You look at the Browns last year where a kicker has an issue. He gets hurt. Then the punter kicks off, and then he gets hurt. It’s a different leg motion, different mechanics. You do need a professional kicker.”
• Having a skilled kicker, more than just a powerful leg at the position, is going to be even more valuable. Judge estimated that at any one time, there are probably around eight kickers in the NFL at a level where they can place both traditional kicks and what Judge calls “auxiliary” kicks (squibs, knucklers, etc.) in spots. Teams that have them, then, should be at a pretty massive advantage.
So seasoned vets such as Graham Gano and Nick Folk will be valuable, as could be soccer-bred kickers like the Dallas Cowboys’ Brandon Aubrey.
“If you can move it around, that will dictate and affect teams’ abilities of scheming you up and getting to a return with a double team or multiple double teams,” Judge says. “They have to play a little more reactive. That’s where it’ll give you the advantage as a kickoff team of making them play more of a base middle scheme or an automatic return scheme, where they can get a free runner, get someone down there to make a big coverage play. The kickers are a big part of this play. It’s not going to be anybody who can go out there and just tap it down there. This is not like chip and putt.”
Another hidden advantage Judge brought up that could show up early in the year: teams leveraging the power of having joint practices.
Teams doing them will have a lot of extra work in the summer and get the chance to try things at close to full speed without exposing strategy to the other 30 teams not on that particular practice field with them. Of course, that edge could be mitigated by the fact that, when it comes to running stuff out there in preseason games, getting guys the reps in a play that didn’t exist before this year will probably be more valuable than hiding your scheme.
“Because it is such a different play, it’s not like you can take a Matt Slater in the past and say, He’s covered 1,000 kicks, it’s not going to make a difference if he runs down in preseason for one or two,” Judge says. “[This year] you’re going to have to get these guys a feel of the timing and space of the play. That’s a big part of it.”
That’s just as the coaches are getting a feel for it themselves.
Some are working the return teams to go right at blocking the coverage team, others are having them drop back, like they would under the old kickoff rules. Everyone seems to have a different take on how to block it. Some of it, again, will depend on the skill of the kicker. And if the result is a return of explosive runbacks and better field position for offenses across the NFL? A few coaches told Judge they could see a scenario where the best play would be to kick it through the end zone and just give the offense the ball at the 30.
At this point, though, all of it is guesswork, both for all of us on the outside, as well as everyone on the inside. Which is why, I’d bet, it’ll be a bigger discussion point than you think five or six weeks from now.
And with that, here are 10 more training camp questions we’ll be asking then …
Where do the 2024 Cowboys go from here?
I didn’t want to make this column team-centric, because all 32 enter camp with questions. But it’s impossible to get on the highway to the regular season without rubber-necking at what’s going on with America’s Team.
The coach, Mike McCarthy, and quarterback, Dak Prescott, are in contract years. Ditto for the star receiver coming off a 1,700-yard season, CeeDee Lamb. Micah Parsons, conversely, has two years left on his deal, but could make a push to get paid early, like his fellow 2021 first-rounders Trevor Lawrence, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Penei Sewell have this offseason. And the stakes have been raised on all of those negotiations with Dallas’s inaction.
Since the start of the offseason, Lawrence and Jared Goff have joined the $50 million club. And they got there without the leverage Prescott has, on the open road to free agency that the Dallas QB’s wildly expensive 2025 tag number ($79.39 million) creates for him. The Cowboys made Prescott play out his rookie deal and through one franchise tag before, and have carried this situation into the final months of his second contract. So, really, there’d be no reason for him to give his team a hometown discount.
Then, there’s the way the Justin Jefferson contract created a two-barrel problem for the Cowboys, moving the financial needle for both receivers specifically and nonquarterbacks in general. You can say Lamb isn’t the player Jefferson is, and you’d be right. But the year he had in 2023 would make a Jefferson-like ask relatively reasonable. Meanwhile, Parsons, like Nick Bosa before him, has been on track to be paid like no one else at his position ever since he first stepped on an NFL game field. (Remember that Bosa is the player Jefferson beat out for the richest deal given to a nonquarterback.)
So that’s a lot, and, as always, there’ll be plenty of cameras in California waiting to chronicle it all when the Cowboys check in for camp.
What happens with the quarterback market?
That Lawrence and Goff have gotten to $55 million and $53 million per year, respectively, may seem to set the course for Prescott, the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa and the Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love. The devil, though, is in the details. Those details mostly involve how quickly the quarterback is getting his cash over the six or seven years these deals run.
As we detailed in the MMQB takeaways last week, Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow’s APY (average per year) was $55 million, same as Lawrence. But Burrow is landing nearly $35 million more over the first two years of his deal than Lawrence is over the first two years of his, and that gap closes only slightly, to about $32 millio, over three years. Goff lags nearly $18 million behind Burrow over two years, but catches him through three years.
That’s especially relevant in the cases of Tagovailoa and Love, because of questions related to health, in the case of the former, and track record, in the case of the latter. How does the team protect itself, while rewarding the player? How quickly does the player get his cash? How many years out are you guaranteeing? All those things make these complicated negotiations that go well beyond taking a cursory look at the dollar amounts a few other guys got.
Which rookie quarterbacks will play?
The Chicago Bears have already named Caleb Williams their starter. It seems like Jayden Daniels has, at least, the inside track to becoming the Washington Commanders’ starter. Barring injury to Kirk Cousins, Michael Penix Jr. will sit for the Atlanta Falcons. And that gives us three wild cards.
Drake Maye made steady progress in the spring, to the point where my sense is he’ll be taking most reps with the Patriots’ second team in the summer, behind Jacoby Brissett and ahead of Bailey Zappe. It doesn’t mean he’ll wind up the starter, but it’s at least a step in that direction. On paper, the Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix might be the most ready to start among all these guys, with 61 college starts under his belt. And as for the Minnesota Vikings, I’d expect Kevin O’Connell to be disciplined with J.J. McCarthy and give Sam Darnold every chance to be the guy.
Those three situations, to me, could all evolve and change as camp gets going.
How’s the Achilles club recovering?
Aaron Rodgers is 40. Cousins is 35. Both guys were full go for most of the spring. Both teams believe their elder statesmen are the ones to break extended playoff droughts (the New York Jets’ 13-year drought is, of course, considerably longer than the Falcons’ six-year spell).
Because we’ve seen a lot of guys come back from popping their Achilles recently, and more successfully from an injury that used to be very difficult for football players to return from, you’d think there’d be some good quarterback history to draw on here. The truth is, there isn’t. ESPN injury guru Stephania Bell did the research last year, and found that Vinny Testaverde (1999) and Dan Marino (’93) were the most recent examples at the position.
Both came back the following year and started all 16 games, and each, relatively, at least, returned to form. Testaverde did bring up an interesting nuance here, though, in an interview with ESPN. He told Rich Cimini that Rodgers was fortunate his torn Achilles was on the left side, and not in his plant foot. For what it’s worth, Cousins’s torn Achilles was on the right.
While we’re there, how are the Jets handling the noise?
A pretty quiet spring was interrupted by Rodgers’s absence from minicamp, an absence that was discussed with the team and fully vetted, but not excused. It did, to be fair, follow full participation from Rodgers in the offseason program up until that point, which of course included all 10 OTA practice days. Rodgers also was in attendance the first day of that minicamp week, a Monday, for all the obligations the players had (that was their “media day,” where they did photo shoots and recorded video for the stadium and the networks).
Functionally, it’s not a big deal. But it will be what people go back to if there’s any sort of tumult over the summer, and it’ll be on the Jets to manage that.
Overall, I like the way Robert Saleh is handling 2024—with what I think is a more intense focus on making sure everything inside the organization is where it needs to be, and the team doing less with all the nonfootball stuff that came with last season’s hype. That said, how all that comes together through all the ups and downs ahead remains to be seen.
Does the San Francisco 49ers–Los Angeles Rams rivalry flip back?
Last year was supposed to be the year the Rams took their lumps. They were carrying around $75 million in dead cap—meaning about a third of their cap was dedicated to players no longer on the team. Their aging core was coming off an injury-marred 2022 campaign. The bill was due for all the breakneck team-building of the previous half decade.
Then, a funny thing happened. A young team and reshuffled staff re-energized Sean McVay. A raft of recent draft picks—including rookies Puka Nacua, Kobie Turner and Byron Young—stepped in and delivered in big roles. Somehow, the team scratched and clawed, and behind a Kyren Williams–driven run game and a healthier Matthew Stafford, ripped off 10 wins and made it into the postseason. And then, they marched into 2024 with a cleaned-up cap, a first-round pick for the first time in nearly a decade and the arrow pointing up.
Now, with all that established, the Niners are still really, really good. So good that anything less than a return to the Super Bowl, with a core still right in that championship window, would be a disappointment. But I’d bet they’ll have more resistance in their division (and maybe from feisty Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks groups, too) than they did last year. And if they slip a little, McVay’s crew is poised to take advantage.
How will Year 2 for the eclectic quarterback class of 2023 go?
This group includes the rocketship of a reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year poised to take things to the moon (C.J. Stroud). The No. 1 pick lots of folks seem worried might not have enough physically (Bryce Young). The create-an-athlete monster coming off surgery on his throwing shoulder (Anthony Richardson). And the intriguing, sparingly played, draft-day sinker whose team got him a quarterback-centric coach, a new running back, new No. 1 receiver, new left tackle and new center, and gave him the keys from the start of the offseason (Will Levis).
Can Stroud build off a historic rookie year? Can Dave Canales get Young, the 2021 Heisman winner, going after a rocky maiden voyage with the Carolina Panthers? Will Richardson be able to stay healthy enough to realize his potential? Will the Tennessee Titans’ faith in Levis pay off?
We’ll be looking for answers on those questions all summer.
Which coordinator changes will be difference-makers?
For one reason or another, the Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Bengals, Cowboys, New York Giants, Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 49ers and Rams—all teams that made the playoffs either last year or the year before—are breaking in new coordinators on one side of the ball or the other, and how the new guys go could wind up being a swing factor in those teams’ seasons.
But no one is dealing with it on the same level that the Philadelphia Eagles are, with the team having broken up the pipeline of rising young assistants that Nick Sirianni had built to go outside the organization and hire a couple of experienced, respected play-callers in Kellen Moore (on offense) and Vic Fangio (on defense). And that was after Sirianni finished up his third consecutive playoff season on the hot seat in Philly, less than a year after his Eagles made the Super Bowl.
If the expectations seem unnecessarily harsh for Sirianni, that’s probably a byproduct of how the organization sees the roster, as being squarely in a championship window. So while the fourth-year boss isn’t the only head coach from the teams above with new coordinators who needs his staff to deliver, he may need it just a little more than the other guys do.
How will the NFL’s first Bill Belichick–less season since 1974 play out?
My off-the-cuff first answer for that: with lots of speculation over a potential 2025 return for the legendary coach. Most who know Belichick believe he’s still, even now after a little more time off, looking to return to the sidelines. And so just as Sean Payton’s sudden availability became a story line through ’22, Belichick’s presence as a free agent will be something to follow through this summer and into the fall and winter.
I’d imagine, to begin with, there’ll be plenty of speculation within the ranks of the NFC East on how this one will play out—with Belichick’s ties to the Giants obvious, and relationships in Philly (with GM Howie Roseman) and Dallas (with the Joneses) strong—and maybe as soon as during camp, if any of those teams are perceived to have a shaky summer.
And then, there’s the Patriots, and Jerod Mayo’s first training camp as head coach. So far, it seems like Mayo has done a lot to put his own stamp on the program, and internally it looks very different than it did under Belichick. What that looks like in the summer will be interesting.
Will Jim Harbaugh turn around the Los Angeles Chargers as quickly as he did his previous teams?
The new Chargers coach returns to the pros with the fifth-highest win percentage in league history (.695), behind only Guy Chamberlin (whom I need to read up on), John Madden, Vince Lombardi and George Allen. Maybe, because he was only in San Francisco for four years, it’s not a huge indicator of much—but I think it does illustrate his proven track record as a turnaround artist.
Stanford went from one win to four in his first year there, and the Niners and Michigan doubled their win totals (to 13 and 10, respectively) in Year 1 under Harbaugh. The Chargers also aren’t bereft of talent, and the starts with Justin Herbert. I think Harbaugh will get more from Herbert by asking less of him. And that’s through the identifiable brand of smashmouth, old-school football that’s traveled with Harbaugh wherever he’s gone.
In fact, I think the Chargers are so interesting that I’m planning on starting my annual training camp trip with them.
And I’ll see all of you then.