New Teal wave of Muslim voters could derail Labor amid Payman crisis

Anthony Albanese‘s government could face a ‘Teal wave’ of its own at the next election from new Muslim political organisations targeting the party in key seats.

The Muslim Vote and Muslim Votes Matter are calling for candidates to run against high-profile Labor ministers and MPs at the next election. 

The groups were formed amid Labor’s perceived failure to stand up for Palestine. 

And in an intriguing twist, both groups have rallied behind first-term WA Labor Senator Fatima Payman after she was ‘exiled’ from the party for crossing the floor on a Greens motion recognising Palestine. 

That has sparked speculation she could strike out on her own as an independent affiliated with the Islamic ‘united collective’. 

Both groups have rallied behind Ms Payman.  

Muslim Votes Matter said: ‘Our community is united and stands firmly with Senator Fatima Payman. It is deeply concerning that her Labor colleagues have not demonstrated the same level of commitment to human rights and justice. 

‘We will not forget at the next election.’

Muslim Votes Matter has identified 32 seats to focus upon, including 20 in which ‘the Muslim community collectively has the potential deciding vote’ in the next election.

‘In the last 25 years, no federal government has been elected by a margin of more than 15 seats,’ the group said. 

Education Minister Jason Clare, Employment Relations Minister Tony Burke and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen – all representing west or south-western Sydney seats – are among the most high profile members of government who have been put on alert.

Mr Clare’s seat is comprised of 31.7 per cent Muslim voters and his margin in the 2022 election was 14.9 per cent.

And in Mr Burke’s seat, 25.1 per cent of voters are Muslim, with a margin of 15.1 per cent. 

Labor’s Peter Khalil, Ged Kearney and Graham Perrett will face assaults on two fronts, with the Greens also vowing to launch a doorknocking campaign over the coming weeks deriding Labor’s treatment of Senator Payman to voters.

Ms Payman has been indefinitely suspended from caucus and claims she has been ‘exiled’ and bullied for voting with her conscience on the Palestine matter.

Senior ministers and Labor MPs have been doing media rounds for days now, each generally saying the same thing: that Ms Payman has not been a team player and would be welcomed back into the fold if she were to promise to toe the party line.

Behind the scenes, it’s understood Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is facing pressure to come down harder on Ms Payman.

But Greens volunteers will begin doorknocking in key electorates telling voters that their own representative could be doing more on the Palestine issue if they cared about it by following Ms Payman’s lead.

The volunteers will say that if a young, first-term senator can be ‘brave’ and speak out about the matter then seasoned Labor MPs should be doing the same.

This, paired with the efforts of the Muslim collectives to unite the Islamic vote in certain electorates, spells danger for Labor.

The Muslim Vote said in a statement: ‘The next Federal election signals a shift. We will no longer accept being taken for granted. 

‘Australian Muslims are a powerful, united force of nearly one million acting in unison. The Muslim Vote alone is capable of forcing the current government into minority government. 

‘In 2024, we are focused on Federal seats where the Muslim vote can influence the outcome.

‘The Muslim Vote is a loose but united collective. Our principal aims are to educate and mobilise at the grassroots. The community sentiment does exist, and it is important that their voices are put forward and their issues are represented without needing to conform to party policy.’

The organisation said the biggest electoral battles will be in southwest Sydney and Melbourne, and there will be a concerted effort to ‘create viable grassroots political infrastructure in our communities’.  

‘Having an independent voice is real representation of the issues, unlike a political party,’ it said. 

‘As Australia approaches the 2024 federal election, the strategic importance of the votes of Muslims, students, and the broader Australian populace cannot be understated for any party aiming for victory, especially the Labor Party.

‘Historically reliant on the support of these key demographics, Labor now finds itself in unknown territory due to its position on Gaza, particularly its stance on Israel’s genocide, which has notably seen mass exit among these critical voter groups.’

The group said while Muslims have traditionally aligned themselves with Labor, the government’s perceived inaction relating to Gaza has ’caused significant disaffection within these communities’.

‘The fallout from Labor’s current position is likely to alienate a substantial portion of its base, which is increasingly vocal and influential in shaping public discourse and electoral outcomes,’ it said.

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