The quarterbacks from the 2023 NFL Draft class had a tough rookie season overall, with one major bright spot: C.J. Stroud. Stroud was terrific for the Texans after they took him No. 2 overall, leading them to the AFC South title and a wild-card playoff victory over the Browns.
Stroud won AP Offensive Rookie of the Year and made the Pro Bowl while throwing for high volume in 15 starts. He is now trying to build on that in Year 2 and avoid any regression by way of a sophomore slump.
Beyond Stroud, however, No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young struggled mightily for the Panthers, while No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson played in only four games for the Colts before being shelved with a shoulder injury.
Will Levis, the Titans’ second-rounder, got nine starts in the back half of last season. From fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell (Raiders) to undrafted Tyson Bagent (Bears) and Tommy DeVito (Giants), multiple other rookie QBs made multiple starts, but none of those three have the potential to be long-term franchise passers.
The Texans are now hoping to push toward the league’s QB ceiling with Stroud. Much more is expected of Young, Richardson, and Levis in their second seasons. Here’s projecting what to expect from all four sophomore quarterbacks in 2024.
MORE: Rankings the NFL offseasons from best (Steelers) to worst (Cowboys)
NFL second-year quarterback predictions
C.J. Stroud, Texans
2023 stats: 4,108 passing yards, 23 TDs, 5 INTs, 63.9 completion percentage, 8.2 yards per attempt, 100.8 passer rating
2024 key additions: WR Stefon Diggs, WR Ben Skowronek, RB Joe Mixon, OT Blake Fisher
Stroud stays with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and gets an upgrade to his receiving corps and backfield with two winning veterans from other AFC title contenders. As a rookie, he led the league in average passing yards per game (273.3), so he is capable of locking down a yardage title.
Stroud went 10-7 in his start last year, including the playoffs. Improved individual benchmarks aside, the key will be putting the Texans on the short list of teams that can challenge Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Stroud will continue to excel in his 49ers-adjacent offense. With a higher comfort level, Stroud should be more aggressive with his downfield throws with Diggs joining Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
Stroud’s projected 2024 stats: 4,400 passing yards, 32 TDs, 10 INTs, 65.0 completion percentage, 8.3 yards per attempt, 103.4 passer rating
BIGGEST OFFSEASON UPGRADES: Offense | Defense | Coaching
Bryce Young, Panthers
2023 stats: 2,877 passing yards, 11 TDs, 10 INTs, 59.8 completion percentage, 5.5 yards per attempt, 73.7 passer rating
2024 key additions: HC Dave Canales, OC Brad Idzik, WR Diontae Johnson, WR Xavier Legette, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, RB Jonathon Brooks, LG Damien Lewis, RG Robert Hunt
The Panthers knew they had to give Young plenty of help based on a disappointing rookie passing game. Enter the quarterback “whisperer” Canales as the new offensive-minded head coach replacing Frank Reich in the full-time role. He brings Idzik and his passing philosophy from Tampa. Over the past two years, Canales has revived the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, setting them up to thrive by designing quick, efficient, short-to-intermediate throws all over the field.
Johnson is a new, smooth route-running perimeter veteran to pair with reliable Adam Thielen in the slot. Rookie second-rounder Xavier Legette and second-year Jonathan Mingo also should be deployed well as speedy downfield threats. For check-downs, Chuba Hubbard and a healthy Brooks will be key. Tight end also was upgraded with the athletic Sanders. If Young can’t pull a 180 with all that effort to raise his game, it’s on him.
Young was taken No. 1 for a reason: a combination of his physical tools and mental makeup. He might have been written off by some, but that’s discounting his top talent in a mess of a season. Canales goes three-for-three in fixing QBs.
Young’s projected 2024 stats: 3,900 passing yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs, 64 0 completion percentage, 7.2 yards per attempt, 93.0 passer rating
Anthony Richardson, Colts
2023 stats: 577 passing yards, 3 TDs, INT, 59.6 completion percentage, 6.9 yards per attempt, 87.3 passer rating, 136 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs
2024 key additions: QB Joe Flacco, WR Adonai Mitchell, WR Anthony Gould
Richardson played in only two full games as a rookie. He averaged 31 pass attempts and 10 rushing attempts and might have pushed Stroud and Puka Nacua as best offensive rookie had he not been shut down after Week 5. He was adjusting well in Shane Steichen’s offense, which helped turn Jalen Hurts into one of the league’s premier dual threats.
The Colts won’t shy away from being a run-heavy attack again with Jonathan Taylor good to go from the get-go. That also will keep pressure off Richardson and facilitate his own running.
Richardson’s projected 2024 stats: 3,700 passing yards, 24 passing TDs, 8 INTs, 63 percent completion percentage, 7.5 yards per attempt, 95.2 passer rating, 720 yards rushing, 8 rushing TDs
Will Levis, Titans
2023 stats: 1,808 passing yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs, 58.4 completion percentage, 7.1 yards per attempt, 84.2 passer rating
2024 key additions: HC Brian Callahan, OC Nick Holz, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tyler Boyd, RB Tony Pollard, LT J.C. Latham, C Lloyd Cushenberry
Much like the Panthers with Young, the Titans went all in helping their quarterback make a second-year leap with big coaching and personnel upgrades for the passing game. Gone is the run-heavy attack centered around Derrick Henry. Here are Callahan from the Bengals and Holz from the Jaguars, two of the league’s pass-happiest offenses in 2023.
Levis was sacked 28 times in his nine games as a rookie. The Titans then invested to further shore up the offensive line, getting top pass blockers Latham and Cushenberry to put around first-round left guard Peter Skoronski. Ridley rejoins Holz to complement DeAndre Hopkins outside, while Boyd rejoins Callahan for a reliable slot upgrade. The Titans also have two explosive backs now with Pollard joining Tyjae Spears.
Levis should go up to 30 pass attempts per game as a floor. There should be an emphasis on letting loose his big arm, now equipped with both Ridley and Hopkins in consistent 11 personnel. Levis will struggle with efficiency and adjusting to a pass-first offense, but in the end, he should show improved play and numbers. The Titans also will keep things around 60-40 in the pass-run ratio to align with the philosophies of Callahan and Holz.
Levis’ projected 2024 stats: 4,100 passing yards, 61.0 completion percentage, 7.4 yards per attempt, 25 TDs, 14 INTs, 88.0 passer rating