Such is the intense nature of the three-game State of Origin contest, NSW coach Michael Maguire has no margin for error in picking his team for the June 26 return bout in Melbourne.
Maguire has to be bold in coming up with a winning combination but making wholesale changes is rarely a recipe for success.
Particularly given it’s his first series in charge and he doesn’t have much of a history with any of the players, he needs to show loyalty to the majority of the squad he thought was good enough to get a start in game one just a few weeks ago.
But he cannot be loyal to a fault.
Changes, plural, are needed on top of the one he will be forced to make at centre following Joseph Suaalii’s four-game ban.
If anyone thinks NSW only lost the series opener because Suaalii was sent off seven minutes into the contest, they are in for a rude shock at the MCG.
Maguire faces five crucial calls that he has to nail, or Billy Slater will be lifting the shield with Daly Cherry-Evans for a third straight year, with a game to spare just like last time around.
Fullback – Edwards or Tedesco?
Roosters veteran James Tedesco did a solid job at the back after swallowing his pride following his late reprieve for game one when Dylan Edwards pulled out with a thigh problem.
Edwards will give the Blues a fresh approach from one of the most important positions on the field in attack and defence, which is sorely needed for a team that has lost five of the past six Origin live rubbers, all with Tedesco in the No.1 jersey.
Centre – Who replaces Suaalii?
Suaalii lined up at right centre for his seven-minute cameo so Maguire needs to decide whether to bring in a like for like replacement in the form of Jesse Ramien or Kotoni Staggs or shuffle Stephen Crichton across to create a vacancy on the left.
Crichton is a rarity for modern centres in that he is comfortable on either flank – he was used on the left in Origin I although he has been carving up for Canterbury on the right edge.
With his offload flicking ability, he should be switched to the right for game two alongside Zac Lomax.
Bradman Best celebrates scoring a try. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
Latrell Mitchell and Newcastle’s Bradman Best are left-side specialists while Matt Burton played there a couple of seasons ago for Penrith’s premiership charge and twice for the Blues.
Mitchell is mounting a strong case and his star power means he appears to be the frontrunner, but that doesn’t mean he is the best option.
Best is making a comeback from a hamstring injury this Sunday against Penrith and after the Maroons struggled to contain his size and strength in his two-try debut last year, he deserves another crack at them if he can prove he’s back to full fitness.
Halves – Hynes, Luai, Moses, Burton
There have been some great playmakers at first-grade level over the years who never quite made their mark in Origin, including the likes of Terry Lamb, Greg Alexander and Cliff Lyons.
Nicho Hynes has a Dally M Medal and is undoubtedly one of the top halfbacks in the NRL but if Maguire doesn’t give him another chance in game two, the Origin ship may have passed him by.
Jarome Luai has had a lot more chances in sky-blue and the jury is still out on whether he is the best option at five-eighth.
Nicho Hynes. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Mitchell Moses was red hot in his return from injury a fortnight ago but was unable to steer Parra out of trouble against the fast-finishing Bulldogs on Easter Monday.
Burton was one of the primary reasons why the Eels came undone. He possesses a skill with his towering torpedo bombs that literally nobody else in the NRL can reach his level.
It’s not like he is a one-trick pony either. He’s got the size and skill that you need from a five-eighth in Origin.
The Maroons would much rather face Luai running sideways trying to conjure attacking raids than look to the heavens after Burton launches a trademark missile into the night sky.
And for that reason, Maguire should pair Burton with Hynes. It would be a panic play to replace both halves but the wrong move to give them both another chance.
Beefing up the pack
Cameron Murray is a no-brainer selection if fit and all signs are that he will be back to his usual self when he makes a return from a hip injury for Souths against Brisbane on Friday night.
Cameron McInnes at lock is likely to at least be relegated to the interchange from lock if Murray is fit but the Blues still need more oomph up front.
Spencer Leniu gave NSW their most impact in game one but Maguire is hardly going to send skipper Jake Trbojevic to the bench (even though he used him for just 29 minutes in Origin I) so he should be looking to bring the Roosters behemoth into the fray earlier.
A 15-20 minute stint of mayhem in each half from Leniu would go a long way towards putting the Maroons pack off their game.
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Fixing his bench
The criticism of Slater prior to game one for carrying a specialist centre on his bench was short-sighted.
Even if Selwyn Cobbo wasn’t needed to play nearly the entire game because of Walsh’s concussion, it was still a smart move as the young Bronco was not only covering for a backline reshuffle but could have filled in as an edge or even middle forward if the speedsters out wide all played the full 80.
Time and again we’ve seen back-rowers struggle to handle the defensive requirements when shuffled out to centre so Slater’s strategy made more sense than his critics blaring from their online soapbox.
If McInnes or Angus Crichton go back to the bench with Murray returning, Maguire, second-rowers Hudson Young and Haumole Olakau’atu look vulnerable. Mitchell, Best or Burton would be more versatile options as a bench utility with McInnes the back-up hooker if Reece Robson needs to be replaced mid-game.
Blues Origin II Team
1 Dylan Edwards
2 Brian To’o
3 Stephen Crichton
4 Bradman Best
5 Zac Lomax
6 Matt Burton
7 Nicho Hynes
8 Payne Haas
9 Reece Robson
10 Jake Trbojevic (c)
11 Angus Crichton
12 Liam Martin
13 Cameron Murray
14 Isaah Yeo
15 Latrell Mitchell
16 Spencer Leniu
17 Hudson Young
18 Haumole Olakau’atu