This is being written in mid-late June. Somehow, college baseball is still being played.
The world isn’t there with college football yet – that always happens for the mass public around August 11ish. But if you care about win totals, and you like to invest, this is the time to figure it out before things start to change in two months.
Remember, there isn’t anything magical about Vegas and the way the odds are created. The lines go up, and those who dabble dive in and set the market.
Across college football there will be more transfers, injuries, some teams on the schedule will start to look better, some will seem a bit rocky, and the win totals will fluctuate a little bit. But Notre Dame should stay relatively firm.
At the moment there are a few places that have the Irish win total at 10 – stay FAR away from that – but most of the big spots like FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars have them at 10.5.
That’s what you want, because when it comes to the 2024 Notre Dame win total – for right now – UNDER on the 10.5 is the play.
That doesn’t mean the Irish will have a bad year – quite the contrary.
I’ve been on the record all offseason so far saying they’re going to be great, and they’ll make the expanded College Football Playoff at 10-2.
But this isn’t about catering to the superfans, or making anyone feel happy about their team. This is about being coldly calculating, so here’s why at 10.5 – NOT 10 – you go with the under on Notre Dame.
I should’ve probably pointed this out for those who don’t usually do this stuff. The preseason win totals are always based on the regular season only, so for schools other than Notre Dame, conference championships don’t factor into this, and neither do playoff games.
And that’s why you’re never totally wrong to go under on any team with a win total of 10 or more. You’re one quarterback injury away from probably being right.
So what happens if Leonard has a setback during the season after his ankle surgeries?
All seems fine. The ankle has been stress tested, and he’ll be all systems go this fall. But what if there’s any sort of setback or issue? The Irish backup options are good, and the rest of the team is strong, but remember, to win the OVER on 10.5 the Irish – duh – need to win 11 or 12 games. If Leonard is out for any length of time – and it doesn’t have to be because of the ankle – you’re in huge trouble if you’re banking on 11 or 12 victories.
Start with this whenever you’re looking at win totals. Where are the sure wins?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, there’s always that 2022 Marshall game or the gaffe against Stanford, or even the Louisville game of last season, but it’ll take something crazy for the Irish to lose to Northern Illinois, Miami University, Navy, Virginia, or Army.
There should be a base of five wins as a base. If any one of those games happens to go the other way – maybe Army’s O works on the right day – the Notre Dame win total isn’t going over on 10.5. And on the flip side,
Really, none.
The Irish aren’t playing Georgia in Athens or Ohio State in Columbus, and even in those two matchups they’d be competitive. But doing win totals with this year’s Irish team and this year’s schedule is different than it is for, say, Purdue – you can sleep well thinking the Boilermakers will lose at Ohio State and have issues at home against Oregon, Penn State, and Notre Dame.
So that’s a wee bit of a problem here. Usually you’d like to see one game that appears to be a sure-thing loss, so all you need is one more to get the under on the 10.5.
Texas, for example, is also at 10.5, and it has to go to Michigan, host Georgia, go to Texas A&M, and face Oklahoma. But …
You only need two.
In general, if you ever get a win total opportunity of 11, or even 11.5, you ALWAYS go under. There aren’t any on the board yet, but they’re coming – Georgia, Ohio State, and maybe Liberty will get to 11 in some places come August. And if Notre Dame gets to 11, well that’s just Christmas in a can.
You take the under, and assume it’s just about impossible to go unbeaten.
Again, Notre Dame should be great. Could it go 12-0 with this schedule? Yeah, absolutely. It won’t, but it wouldn’t be insane – it did it in 2018. Could it go 11-1? Yeah, it happened in 2019 and 2021, but if that happens you go be happy that your team – if you’re a Notre Dame fan – had an amazing year, you tip your cap, and you move on.
Here’s why you go under.
At Texas A&M to start the season. That’s dangerous. The date at Georgia Tech is far less so, but that’s at least on the radar. Florida State is Florida State, and going to USC to end the regular season is a next-level concern.
OF COURSE Notre Dame will go all out to beat USC. But the Irish can’t get a bye in the College Football Playoff, so if they’re 10-1 and all but know that they’re in no matter what happens in LA, maybe that’s just enough to worry. There’s a shot that USC desperately needs this win – and maybe Lincoln Riley desperately needs this win – and the Irish don’t.
At the very least, it’s still USC, it’s still in Los Angeles, and it comes a week after dealing with Army and that offense.
At Texas A&M, Florida State, at USC. All it takes is one loss to one of those three and everything else would have to be perfect. If the Irish win all three, they’re going over the 10.5, you lose, and if you’re here, you’re happy.
Assume one loss to those three, one misfire somewhere else, and 10-2 is the much safer play.
Notre Dame Football Schedule 2024: 5 Things to Know About Louisville, September 28