That old line about things never being as good or bad as they seem has been attributed to a catalogue of famous people, from Harper Lee, the author of “To Kill A Mockingbird”, to in an AFL context, legendary player and coach Leigh Matthews.
In today’s highly changeable football environment, it seems more applicable than ever. And it’s seldom been more obviously appropriate than right now when talking about North Melbourne.
If assessments of teams were based purely upon the bottom line of wins, losses and ladder position, North Melbourne, which is headed for a fifth consecutive bottom-two finish, would be in the discussion, along with Sydney of 1992-92 and Fitzroy of 1995-96, as one the worst couple of teams of the entire AFL era.
The Roos have won just two of their past 35 games, and 11 of their past 96, a dismal strike rate of slightly more than 11%.
That’s borderline institutionalised uncompetitiveness, and if you’d looked at those numbers as you watched North limp to another 10-goal thumping against Port Adelaide in Hobart only five weeks ago, you could have mounted a sustainable case that you were witnessing one of the worst sides the game had ever seen.
Now pretend for a moment you were new to the game, unaware of recent history, and had only arrived in the country in time for Round 13. You’d swear instead the Roos were one of the most exciting, up-and-coming teams in the competition.
Actually, come to think of it, I reckon that mightn’t be far from the truth anyway, and I’ve been privy to all the Roos’ catalogue of failures since 2020.
How can both those premises, one in May and one in June, be equally valid? Because the line between abject defeat and despair and genuine promise may be as fine as a handful of talented kids firing and a few players getting their hands on the football a bit more.
North Melbourne’s two narrow losses to Collingwood (after having led by 54 points) and Melbourne (after having fought back from 39 points down late in the third quarter) might have been gut-wrenching in the moment, but both those performances, in addition to a win in Perth over a vastly-improved West Coast, still add up to an incredibly stark contrast to what had transpired previously.
How have the Roos done it? Really, just with some basics, some of which began to turn around even as North was still getting thumped.
Like disposals. North won the disposal count in only two of its first eight games, but has now won it six games in a row. The Roos didn’t win the contested ball count in any of their first 10 games, but have won it in all four games since.
They’re winning it on the outside, too, their uncontested possession ranking 15th over the first 10 games and third over the past month. And pressure? This is a big indicator, North Melbourne rated 16th for applying pressure over the first 10 games, but second over the past month.
Winning more territory is the next statistical step the Roos need to take, but already their time in forward half deficit has been halved, and defensively North isn’t being opened up as much.
Until the drought-breaking win over West Coast, the Roos had conceded more than 100 points every week without fail, but in the victory in Perth, they allowed their opponent just 65 points, and Melbourne last week scored only 70. That’s a five to six goal difference, and that’s massive.
But you don’t need a stats spreadsheet to see the marked improvement, it’s right there before your eyes, thanks chiefly to a group of young midfielders so prodigiously talented they could conceivably be the AFL’s best for years to come. And very soon.
Luke Davies-Uniacke plays his 100th game on Saturday against the Western Bulldogs, and in his third year of sustained top form, is clearly one of the best on-ballers in the competition.
He and George Wardlaw, an absolute gem of an inside mid, have been the most consistent drivers of the past three weeks, and complement each other’s games perfectly, as does the explosive Harry Sheezel, a first-year best and fairest winner who has hardly missed a beat in his second, either, the Nick Daicos comparisons entirely valid.
There’s plenty more where they came from, too, Tom Powell the link-up runner, co-captain Jy Simpkin the old hand (but still aged just 26), Colby McKercher highly impressive until injured, but still just dipping his toe in the midfield mix, and Will Phillips becoming a key shutdown man.
Which doesn’t even touch on the longer-term key Kangaroos who are still there to play critical roles like Nick Larkey and Cam Zurhaar up forward, a long-term key defensive prospect in Charlie Comben, and a huge figure in this recent upswing, arguably the AFL’s most improved player, ruckman Tristan Xerri.
It’s some roll call of talent. And when you run through it, the seeming flicking of the switch for the Roos these last few weeks seems a lot more understandable. Not to mention those bald statistical comparisons with the worst-performed teams of the past 30-odd years like measuring chalk against cheese.
We’ve never seen a team before with a superficially dismal record of 1-14 still have this big an upside, and perhaps that’s why coach Alastair Clarkson has been a bit more measured of late despite the still-regular losses. He knows how good might be what’s still ahead
And if you’re a North Melbourne fan, just think that one through. Clarkson seemed similarly unruffled in his first couple of largely unsuccessful seasons with a very young Hawthorn line-up almost two decades ago. And that didn’t end too badly for coach or club, did it?
You can read more of Rohan Connolly’s work at FOOTYOLOGY.