The 2024 fantasy football season is fast approaching, so it’s never too early to start preparing for your draft. Established NFL stars are the clear-cut choice in the early rounds, but league championships are often won and lost by the choices that managers make in the mid-to-late portions of their drafts.
It’s imperative to identify breakout candidates and sleepers who have average draft positions far lower than their potential 2024 output. Having a few of these overperforming players on your roster is often the difference between making a run and missing the playoffs entirely.
With that in mind, here are five potential league-winners who are undervalued based on their current average draft position and should pay dividends for managers this coming season.
Fantasy point data and ADP information courtesy of FantasyPros.com using PPR metrics.
ADP: 103 (QB11)
With the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft, the Washington Commanders landed a potential franchise quarterback in Jayden Daniels.
Daniels completed more than 70 percent of his passes for 6,725 yards and 57 touchdowns against only seven interceptions over the past two seasons at LSU. He was dynamic on the ground as well, picking up 2,019 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns on his 321 carries.
It remains to be seen how Daniels’ dual-threat skills will translate to the NFL, but fantasy managers shouldn’t be afraid to bet on him after a comparable first-round passer fared well last year.
Anthony Richardson, whom the Indianapolis Colts chose with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, was thriving before an injury cut his rookie campaign short. Despite having a suspect body of work during his limited tenure at Florida, Richardson still racked up 74.6 fantasy points on only 173 offensive snaps. He’s now being drafted as fantasy’s QB5 with an ADP of 58.
Richardson could also be a league-winning pick if he stays healthy and continues that output, but managers are incurring a lot of risk by selecting him in the fourth or fifth round. Daniels is a far safer selection due to his polished passing skills and history of staying on the field.
While Daniels does have a slightly lower ceiling than Richardson, the risk of him struggling is far more tolerable in the eighth or ninth round. There’s always a chance he hits a rookie wall, but Washington’s projected starter is too talented and has too many ways to contribute to truly bust for fantasy purposes.
Daniels should be firing on all cylinders by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around. He could win leagues for managers who believed in his potential to become a top-five QB right out of the gate.
ADP: 87 (RB23)
Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White came out of nowhere to light up the fantasy playoffs last year. He’s now looking to continue that hot streak into the 2024 campaign.
Between Weeks 15 and 18 last year, White went off for 397 rushing yards and a touchdown on 84 carries. He also flashed PPR value by reeling in nine of his 13 targets for 60 yards.
Extrapolated across a full season, White would have put up 1,687 yards on 357 totes while adding 255 yards on 38 receptions. That would have easily made him the league’s rushing leader, although he’s unlikely to see that type of volume over the course of a full season.
Still, with incumbent starter Josh Jacobs leaving the Raiders in free agency, the path is now clear for White to ascend to stardom in his age-25 season. White will have to contend with veterans Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah as well as rookie sixth-rounder Dylan Laube for touches, but he’s the obvious candidate to lead Vegas’ backfield in 2024.
It helps that the Raiders retained head coach Antonio Pierce after a successful interim stint last season. White earned his trust down the stretch and should parlay that faith into a RB1 role this season. If White keeps delivering, he could end up seeing upward of 300 carries and 40 catches this year.
Despite that ceiling, White is being taken behind 22 other running backs on average so far. Don’t be afraid to reach for him if you need to, as there is no other back with as much upside lurking in the middle rounds.
ADP: 107 (RB30)
Even Derrick Henry couldn’t keep Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears off the field last year. The 2023 third-round pick appeared in all 17 games as a rookie and played the exact same number of offensive snaps (558) as his future Hall of Fame backfield partner.
While Spears wasn’t as productive as Henry, he did run for 453 yards and two touchdowns on 100 carries. He fared better in the passing game, hauling in 52 of his 70 looks for 385 yards and a score. Spears was one of the NFL’s 10 most targeted backs and was tied for ninth in receptions at the position.
The stage is now set for Spears to make a leap in his second season as he prepares to take on a more prominent role in Tennessee’s new-look offense orchestrated by first-year head coach Brian Callahan.
Although the Titans did sign Tony Pollard this offseason, it’s hard to envision the veteran having the same impact on Spears’ workload that Henry did. Pollard is coming off a trying campaign—his only onte as the Dallas Cowboys’ starting running back—and was less effective than Spears in both yards per carry (4.0 to Spears’ 4.5) and yards per reception (5.7 versus 7.4).
If Pollard doesn’t return to his Pro Bowl 2022 form early on, Spears could take control of this backfield and become a breakout fantasy star. Given that he’s only the RB30 right now, it’s worth rolling the dice on Spears becoming a lead back by the end of the season and coming up huge in the fantasy playoffs for patient managers.
ADP: 49 (WR32)
The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t had a true fantasy superstar at wide receiver since Tyreek Hill in 2021. That could change in 2024 after the back-to-back defending champions signed Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in free agency.
While the Chiefs managed to make do last year with an aging Travis Kelce and rookie Rashee Rice serving as Patrick Mahomes’ top targets, they needed more weapons to pull off an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat. The Chiefs’ system could maximize Brown’s potential and rehabilitate his fading star.
Brown joins the Chiefs after a disappointing two-year run with the Arizona Cardinals. After posting a 1,000-yard season in his final season with the Baltimore Ravens in 2021, he caught only 118 passes for 1,283 yards and seven touchdowns in the two years since.
That middling production and injury concerns—Brown missed eight games over the last two seasons—are a large reason why the 27-year-old isn’t a top-30 WR in many leagues. However, he has the potential to emerge as a top option in Kansas City’s aerial attack.
With Rice facing a potentially lengthy suspension to open the 2024 season and Kelce’s snap count dropping in the twilight of his career, Brown has the inside track to becoming Mahomes’ favorite pass-catcher this season.
Brown has a rare opportunity to capitalize both on high volume and big plays this season. He may not put up the All-Pro type numbers that Hill did in Kansas City, but Brown could still vastly outperform expectations and finish as a top-15 fantasy wideout.
ADP: 84 (TE9)
Jake Ferguson is rapidly emerging as one of the NFL’s top tight ends. The rising Dallas Cowboys star earned his first Pro Bowl nod last season and should only get better in 2024.
After a quiet rookie campaign working behind Dalton Schultz, Ferguson broke out in 2023 with 71 catches for 761 yards and five touchdowns. He’s poised to build on that this year, as the Cowboys didn’t acquire any notable pass-catchers to compete with Schultz and All-Pro wideout CeeDee Lamb for targets. The Cowboys also parted ways with both running back Tony Pollard and wide receiver Michael Gallup, who were their fourth- and fifth-most targeted players last season, respectively.
While Jalen Tolbert and Ezekiel Elliott may earn some of the 124 targets that Pollard and Gallup vacated, expect a good chunk to head Ferguson’s way. The tight end said he’s “not even scratching my surface” of his potential and has been hard at work reviewing film and putting in practice reps this offseason to reach his ceiling.
A motivated Ferguson will be a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. At 6’5″ and 244 pounds, he possesses a great blend of size and athleticism. He should be a fixture in the end zone for the Cowboys this season and should get plenty of open looks as defenses focus on containing Lamb following his career-high 1,749-yard campaign last year.
Considering the dearth of consistent fantasy production at tight end, managers should jump at the chance to select Ferguson in the late seventh or early eighth round. He’s poised to be a week-to-week force with real potential to finish as a top-three tight end in 2024.