Geelong’s alarming defensive drop-off is undoing its season, with a telling stretch of fixtures set to define the trajectory of its campaign.
Chris Scott’s Cats started the year 7-0 before dropping five of their next six games to relinquish their top-four stronghold, with a blockbuster meeting with Carlton awaiting on Friday night.
Geelong sits precariously in sixth position on the ladder entering Round 15 — just four premiership points ahead of the ninth-placed Western Bulldogs — with its next five games against fierce opposition set to shape its premiership candidacy.
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Fox Footy analyst and 287-gamer Leigh Montagna examined the dramatic defensive drop-off at Geelong since Round 7.
“I think the bye came at a really good time for the Cats, and I think that’s pretty obvious,” Montagna told Fox Footy’s AFL 360 on Wednesday evening.
“We know they lost five of their last six games and things were starting to go downhill, so I (took) a deep dive and have a look at what went wrong since the 7-0 start.
“So, we’ll just start with the basic numbers of how bad their defensive profile, in particular, dropped away. There’s been a lot of chat about their midfield this year, but defensively, it really, really fell apart.”
After ranking top six in the AFL in points against (fourth), scores per inside-50 against (second), points against from turnover (first), pressure rating (second) and points against from defensive half (sixth) between Opening Round and Round 7, Geelong’s defensive metrics have since plummeted.
From Rounds 8-14, the Cats are 16th in the league in points against, 18th in scores per inside-50 against, 13th in points against from turnover, 11th in pressure rating and 14th in points against from defensive half.
“Their pressure dropped away significantly, it was a concern,” Montagna continued. “But, when you dive even further, what really surprised me was how quickly teams put them to the sword.”
In their Round 9 loss to Port Adelaide, the Cats conceded 37 points in 27 minutes. The next week in Darwin, they allowed 43 points in 39 minutes. Then, 46 points to GWS in 47 minutes, 27 points to Richmond in 41 minutes — in a win — and, most recently, 58 points to Sydney in 52 minutes.
“When you take a look at the point deficit in a short amount of time, it’s stark,” Montagna continued.
“Offensively, they’ve been fine. They’ve actually been able to score and (they) got themselves back in a lot of these games — we know they nearly ran down Port Adelaide.
“The Gold Coast game, they were in front at the start of the second quarter, (but) by early in the third, they were 40 points down. They got completely blown away.
“They have had goals kicked on them in a hurry, which is the big concern for this Geelong side that has got plenty of experience — this isn’t a young defence, this is a senior group. (It’s) basically their premiership back six.”
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Montagna referenced vision of the Cats’ defensive structure, outlining how their zone set-up has been falling short.
“The way Geelong defend has always been unique — they are a zoning defence, so when their zone is on song, they are one of the hardest teams to score against. But, when their zone is slightly off and they either don’t communicate or they presume someone else is going to handover or get the job done, they fall apart,” Montagna explained, as vision played of Swans goals from their Round 13 clash.
“These (goals) weren’t anything spectacular by the Swans, these were just kicks inside 50, but look at that — to have three guys from a slow play that could’ve all waltzed in and kicked the goal, there’s just something missing at the moment.
“I think Sam De Koning’s not quite having the year (he’d like to be having), (and) we know about Tom Stewart and how he’s getting some attention.
“I could’ve shown this from any number of games. I think the Tom Stewart tag, no doubt, has played a factor, but they’ve just got to get on the same page and get back to being the elite defensive team that we have seen from the past.
“They had these issues last year, so the challenge is, now, their run home. I’ve got faith in Chris Scott — I think most of us in here do, he’s a brilliant coach — so I’ve got no doubt they’ve gone to work on this over the bye, and they can rectify it.
“It’ll be the difference between whether they finish top four (or not), if they fix this element of their game, because we know they can score, (and Patrick) Dangerfield comes back in. If they don’t, they’re in danger of missing the eight, so they’re going to be a big watch, post-bye, on how they shore up defensively.”
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Four-time Hawthorn premiership player Jordan Lewis asserted his view on the Cats’ current outlook, noting the players’ individual approach.
“You scout the side more from behind the goals and you look at behaviours rather than the tactical side of the game,” he told AFL 360 on Wednesday night.
“If Geelong is going to be anyone this season, for me I want to see more evidence of them playing together. Mainly, I look at the backline and what they’re doing with Tom Stewart and how they’re helping him out.
“I’ve watched their previous three games and at not one point have the other defenders helped Tom Stewart out … That type of stuff is what I’m looking for from Geelong.
“I just think, at the moment, they are — not deliberately — but playing for themselves. They’re seeing their star player fighting this battle by himself.
“If it’s (Alex) Cincotta who goes to Stewart (on Friday), I want to see him — in the right way — physically assaulted to help out Tom Stewart. That, for me, sends the right message to the whole team.
“Now is a time to get back on and play together and play for each other — and I haven’t seen any evidence of that over the last few weeks.”
Geelong’s next five opponents — Carlton (second on the ladder), Essendon (fourth), Hawthorn (12th), Collingwood (third) and the Western Bulldogs (ninth) — represent considerable challenges Scott and Co. plot another premiership assault.